Ukraine faces difficult weeks in its fight to stem Russian advances on the battlefield despite the passage this weekend of a long-awaited U.S. funding bill, according to officials, soldiers and Ukrainian military analysts.
The US House of Representatives passed a $60 billion military aid package on Saturday evening, after months of delays that left Ukraine short of critical weapons in the face of Russian advances.
American weapons and ammunition will begin flowing into Ukraine in the coming days if the bill is approved by the US Senate this week, as is widely expected.
“The time between political decisions and the real damage caused to the enemy on the front line, between the approval of the package and the strengthening of our soldiers, should be as short as possible,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a speech delivered Sunday evening.
Western and Ukrainian officials said some of the material aid, including weapons and ammunition, was already packed in depots in Poland and elsewhere in Europe and ready for transport.
But U.S. aid is unlikely to dramatically change kyiv’s situation on the front line, according to Ukrainian officials, soldiers and military analysts.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky warned this month that the situation had “significantly deteriorated” after Russian forces intensified offensive actions at several points along the 1,000km front line since capturing the city Avdiivka industrial plant in February.
While far-right Republicans in the House have blocked the passage of a military aid package in recent months, the Russian military has managed to strengthen its grip on the roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory it occupy and take the initiative on the battlefield.
Troops on the front lines told the Financial Times during a visit this month that they were barely holding on in the face of relentless Russian attacks to which they were unable to respond in kind.
“I hope this will turn the page in our favor in this war,” First Lieutenant Ivan Skuratovsky said of the new aid. His unit operates American artillery systems on the front line in the eastern Donetsk region and is short on ammunition.
But the influx of weapons, particularly artillery shells and ammunition needed for air defense systems, “will help slow down the Russian advance, but not stop it”, a senior Ukrainian official said to the FT on condition of anonymity to speak frankly about the situation. battlefield situation.
And Ukrainians have no illusions that American aid will allow the country to reach the end of the war.
“An aid package of this magnitude could be the last this year. Furthermore, it is very likely that any subsequent aid programs for Ukraine will be much more modest,” said a former Ukrainian officer who heads the analytical group Frontelligence Insight.
“The aid provided by the United States buys us and the European Union time, approximately one year,” the group’s assessment said.
Rob Lee, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, said that even with the new U.S. aid, “Russia will still have an artillery advantage, it just won’t be as big.” .
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defense think tank, said the benefits Ukraine would gain from advanced U.S. weaponry would depend on the quantity of weapons supplied.
The US bill only mentions the funding needed to purchase the weapons, not how much of each system Washington will provide.
“Successful combined operations with fighters and anti-aircraft systems could significantly negate Russia’s massive glide bombing campaign. If Ukraine does not massively use key systems, there will be no significant influence on the front line,” Pukhov said.
Zelensky said earlier this month that his troops were now capable of firing a single artillery shell for about 10 shots by their enemy. This gap will now be partially closed, but not completely, according to Ukrainian officials.
The U.S. aid package, which is certain to include artillery shells, the senior Ukrainian official said, “does not contain a silver bullet.”
But Andriy Zagorodnyuk, director of the kyiv-based Center for Security Thinking and a former defense minister of Ukraine, said he believed the U.S. aid was “one bullet enough” to kill the momentum of the Russia.
But this will only solve one major challenge facing Ukraine, he admitted. Kyiv faces another major challenge: labor.
“I think manpower could be key to how the war goes in 2025,” Lee said.
Russia is currently able to mobilize about 30,000 troops each month, according to U.S. and Ukrainian estimates, enough to at least cover its massive battlefield losses.
Ukraine has taken steps to try to alleviate the situation. This month, Zelensky signed a law lowering the mobilization age from 27 to 25, while Ukraine’s parliament passed a new conscription bill aimed at replenishing its depleted and dwindling forces. The US aid package will buy time to address the labor shortage, analysts say.
The U.S. munitions expected to be delivered in the coming days and weeks could also help more effectively defend Ukraine’s critical infrastructure that has been severely damaged or destroyed by Russian missiles and drones in recent weeks, after kyiv failed interceptors, the official said.
Patriot missiles would help defend against long-range air attacks from Russia, while man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS, such as the US Stinger system, could also be dispatched and would assist troops along the line frontally where Russian planes are increasingly attacking Ukrainian positions. and residential buildings flattened to move forward.
“It is fair to ask whether these munitions will arrive in time to help Ukraine hold Chasiv Yar,” Lee said, referring to the strategic eastern hilltop town just 15 km to the west of Bakhmut, the town captured by Russian forces last May.
Syrsky said Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely have ordered his forces to capture Chasiv Yar before May 9, the date Moscow traditionally celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany.
Ukraine’s loss of Chasiv Yar would allow Russian troops to “fire control” on nearby strategic towns and give them a foothold from which they could launch new attacks deeper into Ukraine, commanders said Ukrainians.
Putin has shown no intention of stopping his country’s invasion from spreading deeper into Ukraine.
Asked on Sunday how long the war would last and how long the Americans should finance Ukraine’s defense, Zelensky admitted that his army “lost the initiative” in recent months.
“From the moment we get our hands on these weapon systems, well, from that moment we can talk about timelines,” he said.