As Iran and Israel pulled back from the brink of all-out war last week, a signal that neither side favored escalation emerged: Hezbollah’s limited role.
Growing tensions between Israel and the Lebanese militant group since Hamas launched its deadly attack on October 7 have led to the deadliest clashes beyond Israel’s borders in decades.
Yet when regional hostilities reached their most dangerous level in the conflict – with Tehran launching a barrage of 300 missiles and drones in its first-ever direct attack on Israel – Hezbollah’s participation was largely symbolic.
On April 14, the group fired dozens of rockets in coordination with Tehran’s attack on an Israeli barracks in the Golan Heights – most likely from Syria, where its fighters also operate. But the barrage was smaller than others launched since October.
And when Israel chose to respond to Iran six days later, Hezbollah positions were not among the targets.
The fact that neither side chose to massively involve Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, was one of the most important decisions in containing what could have been an uncontrollable escalation that Israel and Iran say they currently don’t want to, according to analysts.
“For Hezbollah and Iran, it comes down to a cost-benefit analysis,” said Rym Momtaz, a consulting fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank. “If Tehran had sought all-out war with Israel, Hezbollah would have been a central part of its attack. »
Analysts say the desire to keep its firepower in reserve in case Israel follows through on its threats to push militants from the border by force if a diplomatic solution cannot be found helps explain Hezbollah’s relative restraint.
Iran’s desire to avoid triggering a tougher response from the United States and Israel toward the militant group also played a role.
Even though the April 1 Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consular building in Damascus triggered this month’s escalation, it did not cross the threshold into an existential threat to the Iranian regime, Momtaz said, ” “significant Hezbollah involvement was therefore not necessary.” It’s not necessary “.
Hezbollah has lost around 260 fighters since hostilities began the day after Hamas launched its deadly attack on southern Israel – a higher toll than during the devastating 2006 conflict with Israel, according to a Financial calculation. Times based on local sources.
More than 60 civilians have also been killed in Lebanon, and 90,000 people have been displaced from villages dotting its southern border. In Israel, 14 soldiers and eight civilians were killed in Hezbollah attacks, while more than 80,000 people were also displaced from the border.
Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, a powerful network of regional proxies that also includes Hamas, Yemen’s Houthis and Shiite militias in Iraq.
It is estimated to have 20,000 to 50,000 fighters and a powerful arsenal of attack drones, small arms, artillery, tanks and increasingly sophisticated precision-guided missiles. Its battle-hardened fighters last waged a brutal 34-day war against Israel in 2006, honing their skills the following decade when Hezbollah intervened to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime during Syria’s civil war.
Although it has engaged in tit-for-tat clashes with the Israeli army since war broke out between Hamas and Israel, the bombings have been largely limited to border areas.
A Lebanese official said Israel’s decision not to strike Hezbollah on Friday in retaliation for the Iranian attack shows that “cool heads may have prevailed within the divided Israeli cabinet.”
Had they not done so, “Hezbollah would have been forced to retaliate fiercely,” said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss the matter. Otherwise, “we might have already entered into a full-scale war.”
Eyal Hulata, a former Israeli national security adviser and fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said that the fact that Iran targeted Israel directly for the first time meant that Israel had to respond directly to Tehran rather than to its agents.
“It’s not about Hezbollah, it’s about Iran. Iran had to understand this message so that it didn’t think it could continue to bomb us,” he said, “and I hope the Iranians learned a lesson from this: they should be more careful in the future. »
Although all-out war may have been averted for now, the conflict on the Israeli-Lebanese border remains the most dangerous trigger point for a broader regional escalation. Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem told NBC News last week that his group “will not accept the Israelis violating the rules of engagement” in southern Lebanon and that it will increase its attacks if the Israelis do it.
Hezbollah also deployed a new range of tactics against Israel in several incidents last week, analysts say.
Last Wednesday, a retaliatory drone and missile attack by the militant group penetrated Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system and struck the border town of Arab al-Aramshe. The attack, which analysts say used more modern and powerful drones than in previous incidents, injured at least 14 Israeli soldiers, six of them seriously, the Israeli military said.
Israel responded by striking deeper into Lebanon than it usually does, hitting what it sees as Hezbollah’s air defense infrastructure in northern Baalbek, about 60 miles inland.
While Israel has attempted to degrade the militant group’s capabilities since October, regional officials, diplomats and analysts say the group still retains its power. Hezbollah has long posed a far greater threat to Israel than Hamas.
Although they tested new capabilities last week, the militants have yet to demonstrate the most sophisticated elements of their arsenal.
Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of research at the Carnegie Center in Beirut, said Hezbollah was preparing for the possibility of escalation with Israel. “They understand that they must conserve the best of their weapons and capabilities for this larger, more global conflict. »
However, this restraint “was seen as weakness in Tel Aviv and encouraged continued Israeli escalation,” said IISS’s Momtaz. “It also damaged Hezbollah’s credibility and deterrence, and created internal divisions. »
The United States has led efforts to defuse hostilities through a diplomatic deal, but officials and diplomats involved in the negotiations are racing against time. “The window of opportunity to reach an agreement is closing,” the Lebanese official said, “and war could still break out.”
Additional reporting by James Shotter in Jerusalem