When Donald Trump held a rally in rural Pennsylvania last week, he touched on familiar themes: immigration, its legal problems and rising prices. But he received his loudest cheers when he promised to lift Joe Biden’s ban on new natural gas exports, underscoring the policy’s unpopularity in a swing state.
The White House’s decision to withhold approval of new liquefied natural gas projects has angered the shale gas industry, a big employer in Pennsylvania. It has also raised concerns among local Democrats, who warn that a policy designed to appeal to young, climate-conscious voters could hurt Biden’s campaign in a state that produces a fifth of U.S. natural gas.
“I’m pretty tired of constantly worrying that someone in Washington, D.C. will make a decision that will impact my family in Fayette County,” said Nick Staffieri, waste management team leader at EQT Corporation, the largest producer of natural gas in the United States.
“To see us potentially suspend LNG for political purposes is disheartening, really disheartening. »
Pennsylvania’s electoral importance is illustrated by the fact that Biden spent three days in the state this week. On Wednesday, he pledged to keep US Steel under American ownership and called for higher tariffs on Chinese imports of steel and aluminum in a bid to shore up union support.
Hillary Clinton lost to Trump in Pennsylvania in 2016 by fewer than 45,000 votes, when large numbers of working-class voters who traditionally voted Democratic supported the Republican candidate. Biden, born in Scranton, Pennsylvania, beat Trump in that state in 2020 by just over 80,000 votes, or about 1 percentage point.
Working-class voters will play an important role again in November, with opinion polls showing Biden with a very slight lead over Trump in the state. And there are signs that the pause in LNG approvals and other environmental laws shaking up the gas industry are creating a sour mood among its 72,000 workers in Pennsylvania.
Like many of the tens of thousands of workers in the shale industry, Staffieri has first-hand experience with the nature of the sector’s boom and bust. In 2020, he and his wife, who also works in Pennsylvania’s gas industry, were laid off during the pandemic.
“We went from two very good salaries to zero,” said Staffieri, who used his salary to modernize a family farm.
The local economy has since rebounded and the unemployment rate of 3.4 percent is near a record low. But industry and union leaders fear the LNG pause could destabilize the gas industry, which faces challenges from an oversupply that has sent prices to their lowest level in three years.
Producers EQT and Chesapeake are reducing production and some of Pennsylvania’s most productive wells have been temporarily idled.
“If we don’t build energy infrastructure and pipelines, I mean, it’s definitely going to have to hurt the workforce, jobs, pipelines, construction and union jobs,” said Shawn Steffee, sales agent with Boilermakers Local 154 in Pittsburgh.
Unions played an important role in galvanizing their members to support Biden in 2020. In return, he supported pro-union industrial policies that helped them reverse decades of membership decline in Pennsylvania last year.
Union leaders say Biden has done more for their movement than any previous president, but warn that his policies targeting the gas industry could cause workers to switch allegiance to Trump.
“My members will vote based on their wallets and the economy,” Steffee said.
Republican politicians in Pennsylvania have seized on the LNG shutdown, which resonates with a rural constituency of landowners, gas and coal workers who overwhelmingly supported Trump in recent presidential elections.
“Energy is a huge opportunity for America and a huge opportunity for Pennsylvania and I think it’s just been mismanaged,” said David McCormick, the former Bridgewater boss and Republican candidate for US Senate in Pennsylvania.
During a visit to the Lackawanna College School of Oil and Natural Gas in the small town of Tunkhannock, near Scranton, McCormick claimed that Biden had perpetrated “a war on energy” that has damaged the security of the United States.
“Electric vehicles and solar power are not better for workers,” he said.
Political analysts say the LNG issue and other energy-related issues could play a role in a close Pennsylvania election by pushing out some influential voters working in those industries. But a host of other controversial issues, such as abortion, price gouging and immigration, would have broader importance to the state’s electorate, they argue.
Matthew Kerbel, a political science professor at Villanova University in Pennsylvania, said one of the unusual factors in this election is that Biden’s challenger was a former president rather than an untested rival. An incumbent president usually runs on the basis of his record and voters decide on that, but this time it could be different given Trump’s record and legal difficulties, he said.
“What if this election turned into a referendum on Trump, as opposed to a referendum on Biden? I think that’s going to be a very important factor,” Kerbel said.
In rural Pennsylvania, support for Trump runs deep, with many homeowners posting campaign signs in front yards and bumper stickers on their cars.
“Trump was honest, he could have spoken out but he was very honest,” said Joe Cyran, a 73-year-old builder who erected pro-Trump signs outside his business. “The communist left is persecuting Trump. »
But Pennsylvania’s major cities vote overwhelmingly Democratic, and in Scranton, some Biden supporters are mobilizing to try to keep Trump away.
“When I heard Biden was coming to Scranton, I volunteered to sign people up for his speech,” said Sarah Cruz, a sales associate at Boscov’s department store.
She said she always liked Biden because of his moral character and did not want to live under a second Trump presidency, adding that “the soul of our nation is at stake.”
“Trump appointed three Supreme Court justices who overturned Roe v. Wade. I mean, he had children separated from their parents and put in cages like animals. . . his supporters truly believe the election was stolen,” she said.
In Pittsburgh, another Democratic stronghold, some young voters appear disenchanted with Biden and Trump, citing their old age and political differences.
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“I think the way Biden and his administration handle the Palestine/Israel conflict is going to change a lot of young voters,” said Isabelle, a student at the University of Pittsburgh who did not want to give her full name.
“I think with this election it’s almost about choosing the better of two evils. I will vote for Biden and hope he implements his student debt relief plans.
Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, said focus groups showed many Biden voters were voting against Trump rather than for Biden, while Trump voters were very enthusiastic about his candidacy.
“They don’t like Trump. . . they hate it,” he said.
“Trump’s challenge will be to expand beyond his base, which he simply isn’t able to do at the moment.”