Something curious is happening in Washington.
After months of blockages and quarrels over weapons for Ukraine – an impasse which gave Russia the top – suddenly it looks like a vote will take place by Saturday.
It is a story of relief for Ukraine which will receive more than $60 billion (£48 billion) in deadly aid.
But it also represents a curious twist in American political chaos.
For more than 480 days, Republicans in the House of Representatives have blocked the adoption of a bill aimed at sending more weapons to Ukraine.
Republican President Mike Johnson has repeatedly refused to put a bill passed by the Senate to a vote.
Right-wing conservatives in the Republican Party have repeatedly said that Ukraine should not receive U.S. aid and that America should focus on its own southern border, not a distant European frontier.
The speaker, indebted to them for fear of losing his job, but also somewhat aligned with them, had prevented the vote.
On the battlefield of eastern Ukraine, this impasse in Washington DC has had significant consequences.
The Ukrainians are short of all types of weapons, even small arms – bullets for their soldiers’ rifles.
Analysts believe that the recent successes of Russian airstrikes are a consequence of the lack of Ukrainian air defense interceptors. And on the front line, the imbalance between artillery and shells is increasing day by day. Russia has the upper hand.
Trumpian Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz have led a vocal minority charge against funding for Ukraine, insisting that the focus should be on the Mexican border and rejecting the idea that both are possible.
So what has changed? Why is President Johnson suddenly no longer worried about them? Well, that’s just it. It’s not entirely clear.
Johnson went to dinner at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort last week. What was said? We do not know it. But Trump said how he thought Johnson was doing a great job. Something has changed.
Maybe David Cameron will take credit. He was at Mar-a-Lago a few days before telling Trump how important Ukraine was.
But somewhere, the uncompromising Mr. Johnson had an epiphany.
Last night at the Capitol, his language was striking.
“It’s not a game. It’s not a joke. We can’t do politics,” he said, without any irony given his political activities in recent months.
He continued: “We have to do the right thing. And I’m willing to take personal risks to do that, because we have to do the right thing and history will judge.”
He will have to count on the votes of the Democratic Party to pass the bill.
This exasperates the hard right on his side. But they will also have to count on Democratic votes if they want to expel him. They say they could do it, again ignoring the irony.
It all represents a fascinating twist in the most complicated politics and there is still a way to go. Will Johnson keep his job? What does Trump really think? The American media is whispering that Rupert Murdoch is a Johnson fan. This clearly counts for a lot.
Beyond what it says about America’s domestic political chaos, on a geopolitical level it is also indicative of the enduring power America holds, even as its influence and engagement wane.
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If the United States is absent, there is a vacuum. And in the case of Ukraine, it is a vacuum filled by Russia.
It also shows how closely geopolitics are intertwined. Russian drones crashing into Ukrainian cities are made in Iran. These are the same type of drones that almost fell on Israel this weekend.
It is no coincidence that the bill is currently moving forward.
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