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For six days, the world waited with bated breath for Israel’s response to the unprecedented barrage of Iranian missiles and drones. After his arrival on Friday, there was a collective sigh of relief. The attack, targeting an air base near the city of Isfahan, was calibrated to avoid further escalation. The response was muted in both Iran and Israel, which neither confirmed nor denied the attack. Tehran downplayed the entire episode, saying there was no damage and did not directly blame Israel.
Cool heads seemed to prevail. Neither side wanted direct conflict. US President Joe Biden played a crucial role in coming to Israel’s defense when Iran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at the Jewish state, while warning that Washington would not be involved in any retaliation. He has repeatedly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to exercise restraint.
For once, Netanyahu seemed to listen to Israel’s friends, unlike the war in Gaza. A real regional conflict has, for the moment, been avoided. But the volatile Middle East has entered a new and dangerous phase, with Israel and Iran changing the rules of the game.
In the months since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials, and Israel’s launch of its thunderous offensive in Gaza, hostilities have erupted across the region. Israeli and American forces were attacked by Iranian-backed militants. Israel has hit back hard against its adversaries, believing that Iran and its so-called axis of resistance pose an existential threat.
It has launched multiple strikes against Iranian forces in Syria; its deadly attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus triggered Tehran’s missile launch against Israel. Although clearly telegraphed, the Iranian attack was the first direct attack on Israel from its own soil – a very risky move by a regime that has long sought to maintain hostilities in foreign theaters.
While both enemies remain determined to reestablish their deterrents, the danger of provocations and miscalculations will continue to loom over the region. The persistent threat will be that one will misjudge the other’s response to a hostile act, thereby triggering the next escalation.
The most dangerous front is along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, where Israeli forces and Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, have been exchanging fire that has intensified for six months. Israel has made it clear that after October 7, it can no longer live with Hezbollah fighters camped on its border. A diplomatic solution to this front of the crisis is possible and must be pursued.
The United States and its allies must maintain pressure on all parties to exercise restraint and step up diplomacy to end the conflict. But the risks of miscalculation and escalation will persist as long as Israel continues its offensive in Gaza, which has killed 34,000 people, according to Palestinian officials.
Israel’s allies know this. But Netanyahu insists Israel will launch an attack on Rafah, the southern Gaza town where more than a million people have sought refuge, despite warnings that it would have disastrous consequences.
The only realistic effort to end the war – negotiations to secure a ceasefire as part of a deal to free Israeli hostages held in the Gaza Strip – is failing. Neither Hamas, exhausted but not defeated, nor Netanyahu are willing to make the concessions necessary to reach an agreement.
Hostilities between Israel and Iran must not distract from the catastrophic crisis in Gaza. The same allies who rallied behind Israel during the attack should keep pressure on Netanyahu not to launch an assault on Rafah, to allow more aid into the Gaza Strip, and to put an end to the Israeli offensive. Qatar, Egypt and Turkey must step up pressure on Hamas to release the hostages.
The tit-for-tat Israeli-Iranian strikes were a harbinger of where the explosive path the Middle East is on could take. The only way out is the end of the war in Gaza.