A great week for us, as we had a record of 11-5 ATS and 13-3 SU. However, we only went 3-2 on our top five picks against the spread, as the Dallas Cowboys failed to cover against the Detroit Lions and then the Philadelphia Eagles were shocked by the Arizona Cardinals. Maybe I shouldn’t say “shocked” since Philly has been looking bad lately.
Week 18 is fun because you can’t really rely on advanced stats or ATS records to make your picks. It’s more like “Will Sam Darnold beat Carson Wentz” or “Can the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Baltimore Ravens backups?” Here is the last week of the regular season.
Odds from SportsLine consensus
Top Five Picks ATS Record: 40-41-4
Global ATS file: 119-126-11
Live record: 156-100
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Following a controversial loss to the Cowboys last week, Dan Campbell is more energetic than usual. He told reporters this week that he had “controlled fury“, and that he has “pure octane right now.” He also said his plan was to play the starters this weekend, even though there was just a slim chance Detroit could improve your ranking.
The Vikings have just been eliminated on their home field by the Green Bay Packers, and Kevin O’Connell can’t decide on a starting quarterback. Returning to the starting lineup is Nick Mullens, who threw four picks against the Lions just a few weeks ago.
The main reason I like the Lions to cover this week is because their defense is coming off a solid performance. Holding the Cowboys to 20 points at home is pretty wild, as it marks a season low for Dallas. Before last week, the Cowboys had scored at least 30 points in every home game this year.
The choice : Lions -3.5
Projected score: Lions 27-17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Titans are 0-5 against the spread and 0-5 against division opponents this year, coming off a game in which they scored just three points and recorded 187 yards of offense total and quarterback Will Levis is banged up. Sure, Mike Vrabel could rally the troops and play spoilsport, but the Jags need this win to clinch the division. It’s a big deal.
Trevor Lawrence is dealing with a shoulder injury, but I expect him to dress. The Titans and Jags last played in November, with Jacksonville winning 34-14. The game was never close as the Jags scored the first 27 points of the game.
The choice : Jaguar -5.5
Projected score: Jaguar 23-14
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Buccaneers were upset by their rival New Orleans Saints last week and need a win against Carolina to clinch the division. The Panthers are coming off a deflating 26-0 loss to the Jaguars and are surely excited to finish the season. Tampa Bay is 7-1 against the spread on the road this season, which is the second-best mark in the NFL.
The choice : Buccaneers -4.5
Projected score: Buccaneers 17-10
If you want a more analytical approach to your NFL picks, I highly suggest checking out the SportsLine Projection Model, which has been on fire this year. Check it out if you want to know which side to bet on for each game in Week 18.
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Jets aren’t very good and haven’t won a road game since October 29th. The Patriots, on the other hand, sent Russell Wilson to the bench with a surprise win in Denver on Christmas Eve and kept things close with the Bills in Buffalo last week despite four turnovers. New England has won 15 straight games against New York and has covered the spread in six straight games.
The Jets have a 26% third down conversion rate (worst since the 2015 Rams), a 34% red zone conversion rate (worst since the 2012 Chiefs) and have scored just 17 touchdowns offensive (the fewest since this same 2012 Chiefs team). Give me the Patriots, especially with them at home.
The choice : Patriots -1.5
Projected score: Patriots 17-10
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
It’s the backup battle in San Francisco. Who are you taking? Carson Wentz or Sam Darnold? Give me the former No. 2 overall pick. I’m kidding. I know they were both picked second overall. The 49ers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Rams, who nearly lost to the New York Giants last Sunday. This choice comes down to the fact that I like the 49ers backups at home more.
The choice : 49ers -4
Projected score: 49ers 24-16
Other Week 18 Picks
Steelers 23-20 over the Ravens (+4)
Texans (-1) 27-24 against the Colts
Bengals (-7) 25-16 against the Browns
Saints (-3) 24-20 against the Falcons
Seahawks (-2.5) 27-23 vs. Cardinals
Bears (+3) 23-21 over the Packers
Raiders (-3) 20-16 vs. Broncos
Chargers (-3.5) 24-18 over Chiefs
Eagles 27-26 over the Giants (+5)
Cowboys (-13) 35-20 over Commanders
Bills (-3) 29-24 over Dolphins