The Boston Celtics (19-5) visit the Toronto Raptors (12-11) on Monday. Action Tips at 7:40 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Celtics-Raptors prediction and pick.
Boston has won six of its last seven games and sits first in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 15-9 ATS with 61% of their games completed. Toronto have lost two of their last three games heading into tonight’s clash, but have won three in a row at home. The Raptors are 13-10 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over the expected score. This will be the first of four meetings between the division rivals. They split last year’s series, 2-2.
Here are the Celtics-Raptors NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Celtics-Raptors Odds
Boston Celtics: +1 (-108)
Toronto Raptors: -1 (+112)
Over: 227.5 (-110)
Minus: 227.5 (-110)
Why the Celtics could cover the spread
The Celtics have been one of the most dominant teams in recent memory in the regular season, especially on the offensive side of the field. Boston is first in scoring, 3-point percentage and offensive efficiency. However, they are around the league average defensively, as the Celtics only rank 13th in runs allowed and 19th in efficiency. Their true vulnerabilities lie on the glass as Boston ranks 20th in rebound differential and 22nd in rebound rate.
Boston has one of the best doubles in the NBA. The combination of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown is absolutely deadly and unmatched by any other team in the league. Tatum (30.7 PPG) and Brown (27 PPG) combine for almost 60 points per game. They are both incredibly efficient in their scoring. Tatum is shooting 48% from the field, 36% from 3-point range and 87% from the free throw line. Brown is right there with him, shooting 51% from the field, 36% from three and 84% from the line.
Perhaps most impressive, however, is their ability to contribute in all facets of the game. Tatum and Brown are the team’s top two rebounders (8.1 RPG and 7.0 RPG, respectively) and they are a nuisance in defense. They combine for 3.5 STOCKS (steals plus blocks) per game despite constantly being matched against the opposing teams’ best players.
If Boston is going to cover, though, they’re going to have to focus on the rebound. Toronto is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, while Boston is near the bottom. Tatum and Brown do a terrific job on the glass but Boston still lacks a dominant big man to control the glass. Look for Al Horford (6.3 RPG) and Grant Williams (4.6 RPG) to play big roles, especially if they can find success on the glass.
Why the Raptors could cover the spread
Despite numerous injuries, Toronto remains a top team in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors aren’t good on offense despite some outstanding players. They only rank 20th in points and 12th in efficiency. Toronto really shines on defense and on the glass, though. The Raptors rank seventh in points against and defensive efficiency. They are also among the top 10 rebounding teams, ranking seventh in rebound differential and fourth in rebound rate.
While Toronto’s offense is nothing short of amazing, it has received a big boost now that star forward Pascal Siakam is back and healthy. Siakam finds himself in the middle of the best individual season of his career. His score was stellar. In 13 games played, Pascal is averaging 24.2 PPG while shooting 49% from the field and 35% from three. He also did a great job of not only reaching the free throw line (7.4 free throw attempts per game), but also converting his opportunities there (76% from the free throw line). Most of his game that has stepped forward this season has been his work on the glass and as a distributor. Siakam leads his team in both rebounding (8.9 RPG) and assists (7.1 APG). Both of these would be career highs for Siakam – demonstrating his overall growth.
If the Raptors are going to cover tonight, it will be because of their ability to dominate the glass. Toronto is a top ten rebounding team despite having no individual players in the top ten. It’s because of the way they bounce back as a team. Five players are averaging over 5.5 rebounds per game. However, they will be without second-best rebounder Precious Achiuwa due to injury, so expect forward Chris Boucher (6.1 rpg) to take on a bigger role.
Celtics-Raptors final prediction and pick
Boston shouldn’t score against anyone, no matter where the game is played. Toronto plays them notoriously tough, but the Celtics have been by far the best team in the league this year. Don’t think too much about it: ride the Celtics.
Final Celtics-Raptors prediction and pick: Boston Celtics +1 (-108)