One of this year’s Champions League semi-finals features a group stage rematch as PSG travel to the Rhineland for the first leg of their match against German side Borussia Dortmund.
These two teams finished in the top two of this year’s Group of Death, beating AC Milan and Newcastle to the two qualifying places. It was a tough prospect that went all the way to the end, with the final day’s results going a long way to determining the final standings.
They now find themselves in the semi-finals, as both look to secure a place in the Champions League final at Wembley on June 1, with a date with Real Madrid or Bayern Munich looming for the winner.
PSG have already won the Ligue 1 title and are still in play for a quadruple, while Dortmund cannot finish lower than fifth in the Bundesliga table, which is probably enough to secure a place in this competition next season. So, both clubs will prioritize Europe until the end, which means they will give everything they have in these two matches.
United States: click here to see the latest Dortmund vs PSG odds and bet on the Champions League matches
Dortmund vs. PSG odds
PSG are slight favorites for this Champions League semi-final, but the betting market believes that Borussia Dortmund have a strong chance of leaving with a victory at the Yellow Wall.
Dortmund have been excellent at home in Europe in recent years, with just three defeats in 22 home matches since the start of the 2019/20 season, including a draw against PSG earlier this year and a first leg victory against the giants French. back in the 2019/20 round of 16.
Neither team comes into this match off the back of a league win, as PSG drew Le Havre 3-3 and Dortmund were beaten by RB Leipzig 4-1. Although both teams have had some squad rotation, they have nonetheless deployed largely first-choice players, so form is not on either club’s side.
| PariMGM (UNITED STATES) |
|
| Dortmund victory | +170 |
| Draw | +270 |
| PSG victory | +140 |
| The two teams to mark |
Y: -225 N: +150 |
| More less 3.5 goals |
O: +125 U: -175 |
| PSG -0.5 goals |
+125 |
| Dortmund +0.5 goal |
-185 |
Dortmund vs PSG Prediction
- Skinny moneyline: Draw (+270)
- Score prediction: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 PSG
Neither club has been a model of consistency this season, so there is reason to believe this match will end in a draw and let the second leg determine the final participant. Dortmund are the team this year not looking down on their domestic results in Europe, as they have won just one of their last four Bundesliga games but continue to put in strong performances in the Champions League. Last year, that team was AC Milan, and they reached the semi-finals before a fellow Italian finally eliminated them at Inter.
PSG, meanwhile, were held out by relegation candidates Le Havre this weekend, having been unlucky to mathematically clinch the Ligue 1 title, although they fought their way to the trophy thanks to other results this weekend. They have, however, been quite comfortable in other recent domestic results, as well as their shared victories with Barcelona in the previous round of the Champions League.
Both parties will be motivated to bring a lead back with them to Paris, and both parties could theoretically fare successfully in such an endeavor, and so we will split the difference at best value.
Dortmund vs PSG match facts
- Date: Wednesday May 1, 2024
- Kick-off time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund, Germany)
- Arbitrator: Anthony Taylor (ENG), VAR: Stuart Attwell (ENG)
- Last meeting: Borussia Dortmund 1-1 PSG (December 13, 2023 | Champions League)
Dortmund vs PSG key stats
- PSG failed to win any of their three Champions League group stage matches this season, but have since won their two knockout matches, each in Spain, with a 2-1 victory at Real Sociedad and a 4-1 victory at Barcelona.
- No one has more assists in the Champions League this season than Borussia Dortmund’s Marcel Sabitzer, whose five contributions are tied with Vinicius Jr and one more than Jude Bellingham, Ilkay Gundogan and Bukayo Saka.
- Borussia Dortmund have not lost at home in the Champions League since a group stage defeat to Ajax in November 2021, an unbeaten run of 10 with six wins and four draws in that period, including score 1 -1 against PSG at Signal Iduna Park last. autumn.
Dortmund vs PSG team news
Borussia Dortmund is still deprived Sébastien Haller who had an interrupted season due to injuries and remains on the sidelines for a few more weeks. They sweat because of physical fitness Donyell Malen who returned to training on Monday but still has doubts about his availability for this match. Defender Mats Hummels was taken off at the start of the second half of their match this weekend but is expected to be fit, while Chelsea are on loan Ian Maatsen is also likely to return after his injury against Bayer Leverkusen the previous weekend.
PSG have almost all of their first choice players fully fit and available for selection in this match. Substitute goalkeeper Sergio Rico is out for the season after his horseback riding accident earlier this year, and Presnel Kimpembe remains sidelined with Achilles injury, but otherwise only back injury Layvin Kurzawa presents any type of problem. Head coach Luis Enrique managed to secure some sort of rest for most of his first-team players this weekend, with only midfielders. Warren Zaire-Emery And Vitinha and back Achraf Hakimi recording a full 90 minutes.
Dortmund vs PSG best bet
- Take: Over 3.5 goals in total
- Odds: +125 (BetMGM)
- Take: Borussia Dortmund over 1.5 goals
- Odds: +100 (BetMGM)
PSG can score in batches but can’t stop their opponents either – the French giants conceded three in Le Havre this weekend while replacement goalkeeper Keylor Navas was poor, and they have just three clean sheets in 13 matches in all competitions since the start of the season. March, and none in the Champions League on the road this season.
In fact, PSG haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road in Europe since almost four years, dating back to their first Champions League group stage match of the 2020/21 tournament against Turkish side Istanbul Basaksehir. This is a run of 18 consecutive matches in which they have conceded a total of 30 goals against the opposition.
Dortmund, meanwhile, are playing a similar style this season in all competitions. In BVB’s 19 matches in 2024, a total of 55 goals were scored, an average of 2.9 goals per match. At home, that number rises to 3.4, as they played some crazy finishes at Signal Iduna Park. They themselves have reached the total of two goals in all but two of their 2024 home games, the 1-1 draw against the team of destiny, Bayer Leverkusen, and a 1-0 defeat against Stuttgart, third, being the only outliers.
Dortmund vs PSG scorer bet
- Take: Niclas Fullkrug, scorer at all times
- Odds: +175 (BetMGM)
- Take: Niclas Fullkrug 2+ shots on target
- Odds: +150 (FanDuel)
- Take: Ousmane Dembélé, scorer at all times
- Odds: +320 (BetMGM)
While Sébastien Haller was sidelined for much of the season due to injury, Niclas Fullkrug had an excellent first half of the campaign, but has run out of steam a little since the start of March. Yet he showed signs of coming back to life, after going through a dry spell of poor finishing.
Meanwhile, it took almost the entire season, but Ousmane Dembélé finally found his shooting boots for PSG and has been scoring goals over the past month. Dembélé has scored just one Ligue 1 goal in his first 23 games for the French giants with 4.56 xG, but scored a brace against Lorient two weekends ago and has also found his way to the nets twice in the Champions League quarter-finals against his former club Barcelona.
After scoring a goal in the first leg of the quarters, we backed him to score in the second leg as well, and he actually found the net with one of his five shots throughout the match. He’s had eight shots in his last three league matches, plus 10 in his last two in Europe, and will be a major player again here on the road.
Betting on the Dortmund vs PSG flyer
- Take: Niclas Fullkrug will score a goal with a header
- Odds: +750 (FanDuel)
Fullkrug found the net against Bayer Leverkusen, an impressive prospect in his own right, and also scored a critical goal against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League quarter-finals at home. He came up empty in the heavy defeat to RB Leipzig last weekend, but was still a massive presence, failing to hit the target from three glorious headed efforts worth a massive 1.41 combined xG .
Yet his threat speaks for itself: 25 of Fullkrug’s 58 shots in the Bundesliga this season have come from his head, and PSG have conceded eight headed goals this season in Ligue 1, representing 28% of its total concessions, a higher rating. than any other club. Fullkrug failed to take a shot against PSG in the home group stage this season, but on the road to France he came off the bench to save two headed chances in the final 10 minutes of the match.
Heading chances are difficult, as evidenced by Fullkrug’s mark of just three headed goals this season, a quarter of his haul, despite almost half of his headed efforts. He holds a -3.28 xG differential on these chances, which is typical for such high volume. However, his threat and the vulnerability of PSG make him a high quality selection.
Dortmund vs PSG Live Stream, TV Channel
In the United States, this Champions League semi-final first leg will be broadcast in English on CBS, with streaming available on Paramount+, as has been every match of the competition since the group stage. A Spanish-language broadcast is available on TUDN.
American TV shows in English and Spanish can be streamed on Fubo, which offers a free trial for new users.
In the United Kingdom, the match will be broadcast on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on the channel’s dedicated Discovery+ platform.
Meanwhile, in Canada, the UEFA Champions League’s exclusive streaming partner is DAZN, where every match in the competition can be watched live.
