More than half the world’s population could be at risk of catching mosquito-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, by the end of the century, scientists warn.
Mosquito-borne epidemics driven by global warming will spread to parts of northern Europe and other parts of the world in coming decades, experts have said.
In the United Kingdom, figures published by the British Health Safety Agency (UKHSA) show that imported products malaria Last year, the number of cases exceeded 2,000 for the first time in more than 20 years.
It said there were 2,004 confirmed cases of malaria in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2023 following foreign travel, compared to 1,369 in 2022.
This increase, according to the UKHSA, is linked to the resurgence of malaria in many countries and an increase in foreign travel following the removal of pandemic restrictions.
Meanwhile, globally, the number of dengue cases reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) has increased tenfold over the past two decades, from 500,000 in 2000 to more than five million in 2019.
Dengue-carrying mosquitoes have invaded 13 European countries since 2000, with local spread of the disease observed in France, Italy and Spain in 2023.
Rachel Lowe, professor at the Catalan Institute for Research and Advanced Studies in Spain, said: “Global warming due to climate change means that disease vectors that carry and spread malaria and dengue can find refuge in more regions, with outbreaks occurring in areas where people are likely to be immunologically naive and public health systems are unprepared.
“The harsh reality is that longer warm seasons will widen the seasonal window for the spread of mosquito-borne diseases and promote increasingly frequent and increasingly complex outbreaks to manage.”
Researchers said that if global warming could be limited to 1°C, the population at risk of malaria and dengue fever could increase by an additional 2.4 billion people by 2100, compared to the period 1970-1999. .
But they predict that if the current trajectory of carbon emissions and population growth continues, 4.7 billion people could be affected by dengue and malaria by the end of the century.
Professor Lowe added: “We need to anticipate outbreaks and intervene early to prevent diseases from happening in the first place. »
Researchers are now developing ways to predict when and where outbreaks might occur using disease surveillance and climate change data.
The results were presented at the ESCMID World Congress in Barcelona, Spain.