This week, the outgoing head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said Beijing continues to invest resources in its military despite economic turmoil caused by a housing crisis and a slowdown in U.S.-China trade .
“Despite a failing economy, there is a conscious decision to fund military capabilities,” Adm. John Aquilino told a naval conference in Japan. “That worries me.”
What is clear, Western experts and officials say, is that the government in Beijing has learned multiple lessons from Russia’s troubled experience in Ukraine.
These include the opportunity to handle any military takeover extremely quickly, presenting to the outside world – and particularly the United States – a flash change of government in Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, before anyone can actually react.
Communications
Over the past year, US President Joe Biden and his counterpart Xi held a relatively cordial meeting in California in November and at least one follow-up bilateral phone call, while military officials held direct meetings aimed at finding ways to ensure communication and reduce tensions. in any future crisis.
So far, neither Washington nor other Western states have moved to significantly cut China off from its raw materials, although the United States has increasingly worked to deprive Beijing of access to chips high-tech electronics, especially those that could be used for weapons.
European states remain publicly divided over their approaches to Beijing, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz traveling to China this month in what appears to be an effort to keep trade ties ongoing.
German officials say Scholz pressured his Chinese counterparts, including Xi, on multiple issues, including human rights and Beijing’s support for Russia in Ukraine.
More generally, however, relations between the West and China continue to deteriorate – and not just over Taiwan, which Beijing regards as a rogue province with which it promises to pursue “reunification”, either peacefully or through strength.
This month, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told fellow NATO foreign ministers that more Chinese components were being found in Russian weapons in Ukraine. Beijing’s support for Moscow, Blinken said, is nearing the threshold for delivering lethal weapons systems.
This week also saw two rounds of arrests in Europe linked to allegations of spying by China, including two British parliamentary researchers and three Germans working on defense programs. Chinese embassies in both countries have denied any involvement in espionage activities.
After initially recovering from the Covid pandemic, US-China trade plunged in 2023 and so far shows few signs of recovery.
U.S. and European officials have also said they are considering introducing tariffs on Chinese production of electric vehicles in particular, accusing Beijing of deliberate overproduction in a way that threatens U.S. and European rivals.
If such tariffs were introduced, relations would almost certainly deteriorate further.
Chinese government buyers have never been ones to turn down a good deal, frequently replenishing their domestic stocks when short-term prices fall. Recently imposed Western sanctions on Russian nickel, aluminum and copper, which took effect this month, are seen as likely to spur further Chinese purchases.
When it comes to lithium, a key component of many types of batteries, Beijing has bought up not only stocks but also processing facilities and mines, including overseas.