Ariel Epstein gives his best value plays for the upcoming 2022-23 NBA season.
Video transcript
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ARIEL EPSTEIN: Welcome to Yahoo Sportsbook. I am the Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein. Alright, so we have the NFL, Major League Baseball, hockey. Starting Tuesday, the NBA is back in action. This means that you must place your futures bets.
I’m going to give you some value plays for the NBA futures market. I am not saying here that these are the teams guaranteed to win. However, I like where they are on sports betting.
Let’s start with the Western Conference. Now I love the Golden State Warriors. And I’ll talk about why I think you might find better value on the Warriors later.
Still, for the Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks, at 11 to 1, have great value. They just upset just about everyone in the playoffs last year, overtaking the Phoenix Suns, who were favored to win the NBA Finals at one point. And they didn’t even have their full squad of players, like Tim Hardaway, Jr., who missed most of the second half of the year with a foot injury.
Then you also get Spencer Dinwiddie in the mix. And I really like that Christian Wood was added this offseason. Wood, although he is not a great defender, he is good at scoring points on the board. He will come off the bench. JaVale McGee is going to be the best defender in the middle.
However, I still like the Mavericks when they’re coached by Luka Doncic. Doncic, he is still favorite to win the MVP title for the second year in a row. And Doncic is in a better position in terms of his overall health and fitness, based on what happened last year, which I won’t go into. If you know the NBA, you know Doncic wasn’t exactly at his best.
He has remained in good form this offseason. Mavs 11 to 1. As long as Luka Doncic is at the helm, I like them winning the Western Conference as a value game.
Now they say defenses win championships. That’s why at 18 to 1, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ win in the Eastern Conference is great value as well. The Cavs had the fifth-best defensive rating in the NBA last year, where they struggled on offense, where they ranked 20th. Now are you going to add three-time All-Star Donovan Mitchell to your offensive rotation? Ho-hoo!
Cleveland should be so much fun to watch this season. Last year, 9 and 17 in the regular season stretch, lost consecutive playoffs. That’s because the Cavs bumped into each other.
Now you have a leader in Mitchell offensively, on top of that top-notch defense, plus more experience for your younger players. I like this Eastern Conference bet at 18 to 1 for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Now, while I liked the Cavaliers for winning the East from a value standpoint, I mentioned that doesn’t necessarily mean I like those teams winning the NBA Finals. The Milwaukee Bucks could be their year. In fact, it wouldn’t shock me if it was the Warriors back in the Finals against the Bucks.
The NBA is still [INAUDIBLE] Now the Bucks have good sitting value at over 650 on BetMGM. Consistency is the key. The Bucks, they’re regular.
They are managed by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is consistently one of the best players in the NBA. Last season, this team took the Eastern Conference champions to Game 7 without one of their best shooters in Khris Middleton. Middleton was injured after the All-Star break and was in and out of the rotation.
If you continue with him, in addition to recovering Brook Lopez from injury, injuries aside, if this Bucks team can stay healthy, it’s pretty much a similar unit to what they’ve been used to. over the past two or three years. I like that they can remain a cohesive unit on the floor. If they all play on the floor, give me the Bucks, plus 650, to beat the Warriors in the NBA Finals.
Another place for value – as I mentioned, I love that the Golden State Warriors make it to the NBA Finals this year, if that’s not my Dallas Mavericks value game. The problem is that there is no value on the Warriors at the moment as they have the second shortest odds to win the final. So why on earth is their best player – and don’t argue with me – their best player, Steph Curry, is 14 to 1 to win MVP?
If the Golden State Warriors are going to be so dominant again this year, Steph Curry is going to play a part in it, a huge part. I don’t understand the numbers. 14 to 1 is way too good to be on Steph Curry.
At some point, he’ll probably be the favorite. That’s exactly what Steph does. It heats up at the right time. I like that 14-to-1 value, on a Golden State Warriors team, for their best player in Curry not only to be a contender for an NBA Finals, but that means a contender for the West, a contender for the division. It’s because of Steph Curry. So go. He has to keep this team with all this offseason drama we hear about anyway. 14 to 1 over Warriors glue Steph Curry.
Here is a recap of my NBA future. It’s great value in the Western Conference for the Dallas Mavericks to win it at 11-1. I also like the winners of the Eastern Conference, for a value game, the Cleveland Cavaliers at 18-1.
As for the NBA Finals, my realistic expectation is that it’s the Bucks versus the Warriors. That’s why the Bucks, at over 650, are good value. And the way to bet on the Warriors, if you feel like they’re on a deep run, go get their best player, Steph Curry, at 14 to 1.
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