WJAKARTA HEN went into lockdown in April. Asian Tigers Group, a moving company, received a wave of business from wealthy expats who had fled overnight. The removal teams were led to deserted houses by chambermaids or colleagues. With no owners available to sort through their belongings, they found themselves stripping beds and packing dirty sheets in boxes alongside broken toys and other trash.
All expats who want to move have now done so and there are few new arrivals. Asian Tigers is laying off staff for the first time in its 35-year history. “Unless the faucet retracts, we’re in a tough spot,” said Bill Lloyd, the group’s Indonesian operations manager.
Asian metropolises have long attracted migrants from the rich world. Fast-growing companies, vast natural resources, and unfamiliar business environments make for interesting work. Meanwhile, the cost of living is low, so expats can afford maids and large houses that would be out of reach in their homes. About 3 million migrants from OECD lived in Asia last year, according to data from the club, which is mostly made up of rich countries, up from 2.3 million in 1990. But the pandemic has highlighted the drawbacks of living abroad, including the remoteness of family and (in some places) a lack of good medical facilities. Unlike most immigrants, this is an affluent lot for whom relocation is a choice. Many have returned home instead of surviving the pandemic in a foreign country.
It is a loss for their country of origin and for their host country. People who migrate from the developed world to emerging markets represent a tiny fraction of the 270 million international migrants in the world. But they play a disproportionate role in the global economy, bringing new ideas and cosmopolitan connections wherever they go. A study in Canada found that a 10% increase in migrants from a given country is associated with a 1% increase in exports to that country and a 3% increase in imports from that country. There is no reason why migration to developing economies should not produce similar benefits, says Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels of the University of Kent. “We rarely see the North as a region that benefits from emigration, but it definitely does,” she said. “It’s a small but powerful movement.”
However, covid-19 has diminished the attractiveness of living abroad for many residents of the wealthy world. Iñigo Lumbreras de Mazarredo spent much of his 20s working his way up the ranks in a food delivery business in Asia. The best thing about expat life, he says, was the opportunity to travel a lot and meet new people. After a stressful few weeks of trying to pack his bags and get home, including four canceled flights, the 29-year-old returned from Cambodia to Spain in April. “The main advantage of going abroad is to have experience,” he explains. “Now that’s not an option.”
Data on migration in Asia is patchy, but all evidence points to a mass exodus. As of June, America had repatriated more than 15,000 of its citizens from the continent, including tourists and migrants. Knight Frank, a multinational real estate agent, has seen a surge in the number of expats looking to buy a base in their home country, especially among those with elderly parents or children in boarding school. In a survey in June, around 30% of agents in the group said these clients planned to move permanently and 60% said they wanted to split their time between their original home and their adopted home.
For employers, the pandemic has increased the downsides of hiring expensive Westerners in Asia. Most countries have quarantine rules in place and blocked visa applications, making it difficult to transport people to where they are supposed to go. Eliminating expensive overseas shipments is an easy way to save money during a recession. Meanwhile, the need to work from home has shown that coworkers can collaborate reasonably well over long distances using video calls. More than 50% of companies have repatriated employees on long-term assignments abroad and only half of them plan to roll them back within a year, according to a survey by CEA International, which helps companies move their staff. Almost all of the companies surveyed also said they allow expats to work elsewhere if they wish.
Covid-19 is accelerating a trend that was already underway, says Toby Fowlston of Robert Walters, a recruiting company. Education and language skills in the region have improved markedly in recent years. It is much less necessary to travel with expats to do a job. In Hong Kong, says Fowlston, the growing influence of mainland China means employers are looking for Mandarin speakers. He estimates that expatriates occupy only a fifth of client-facing roles in the city’s investment banks, up from a third five years ago.
Host governments are also blocking the hiring of expatriates, imagining this could reduce unemployment. In Malaysia, companies can only employ foreigners if they cannot find a local candidate who matches the bill. Employers must post job vacancies through a central portal, interview candidates within 30 days and report to authorities afterwards. In August, the Singaporean government raised the minimum wage that companies must pay foreigners to obtain visas. She also opened an investigation into 47 companies which she suspects have not given local candidates a chance. Similarly, several Asian countries say they will cancel the residence permits of foreigners who leave the country without first obtaining special permission.
Whether businesses and governments like it or not, there will always be Westerners willing to live in Asia. Most people travel for love or for work. The first group is not that big. For the second, the allure of expatriate life is likely to return when borders reopen and social distancing rules disappear.
Hector Drake and his wife recently moved to London to have their first child after a decade in Hong Kong, Beijing and Shanghai. In fact, says Drake, the pandemic has revealed how desirable living in Asia is. The governments of Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam have done a much better job than most Western countries in keeping the virus under control. The couple contracted covid-19 soon after returning to Britain. Mr Drake may think more about his health insurance next time, but he hopes to work overseas again. “People will look for opportunities if they are there,” he says. ■
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This article was originally published in the Asia section of the print edition under the title “Shipping”