The sank the faces peering out from behind dilapidated fences are old, whether the bodies that bear them are old or not. Russia, eight kilometers away, is not hidden. In the past 24 hours, three guided bombs have landed on the village, two of which exploded with devastating effect. Everyone here is in waiting mode. Oleh, the officer responsible for building a new network of fortifications on the outskirts of the village, issues a warning. “If you hear a whistle, you have a few seconds to drop to the ground. And hope for the best.”
The construction of three new lines of fortifications in Sumy province is part of a billion-dollar Ukrainian project to strengthen defenses in anticipation of an expected Russian offensive this summer. The diggers are working around the clock, just like in the provinces of Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and Donetsk, where the bulk of the effort is expected. Construction follows a master plan including interlocking trenches, underground command points, observation posts and dormitories that double as field hospitals. The general rule is that military brigades constitute the first line. Engineering forces, local authorities and sometimes local businesses take care of the rest. The outer line, about 30 km back, is the strongest, built in relative calm with excavators and reinforced concrete. After a long-delayed start, the first part of the project is expected to be completed by the end of the month. The question is whether it will be soon enough.
The situation is already critical in part of the Donetsk region. On April 14, Ukraine’s commanding general, Oleksandr Syrsky, expressed particular concern about the deterioration around the small town of Chasyv Yar. Russian troops had been ordered to seize it before VE Day, May 9, he said, and were assembling a huge strike force. There is frankly little to grasp. Anton, commander of a drone company, describes the once-quiet city in apocalyptic terms. The earth is ash gray; the air was heavy with the smell of gunpowder and burning. Most of the buildings have been destroyed by artillery and guided bombs, he said, “dozens” of which land every day.
According to Anton, the Kremlin is repeating the scorched earth tactics it successfully used to seize nearby Avdiivka in February. With Russian guns firing at least seven times more than Ukrainian guns, it was only “a matter of time” before the process was completed again. Ukraine spent most of the war with a serious artillery deficit, he said, but the shortages have been more pronounced since December. As Ukraine does not have the means to repress the infantry advances, the Russian army is now able to easily approach its positions. “You always try to preserve the ammunition you have, to defend yourself against more serious advances. And so they keep going up, and you keep going down.
Vulnerabilities worry many people. Some media outlets, citing unnamed Western officials, have even suggested that Ukraine may be on the brink of military collapse. These fears are exaggerated. Mr Kostenko, who oversees the southern and eastern groups, believes there is only a “minimal” risk of a major Russian breakthrough in the near future. Ukraine is working to address its labor shortage, he says. Things already look better than in December, when Ukraine’s conscription system practically “collapsed.” But the critical factor remains ammunition. As long as a minimum continues to happen, which is the case so far, Russia will struggle to achieve anything other than limited tactical success in small places like Chasyv Yar. “The front lines are not pleasant, but the Russians also have real problems.”
None of this calms the nerves of Kharkiv, Odessa or even Kiev, where rumors of impending large-scale offensives have been spurred by Russian influence operations and have disrupted Ukrainian communications. One defense insider, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely, insists that none of the supposed Russian operations seemed particularly viable. He suggests that the “chaos” within Ukraine’s Main Staff made the military situation worse than it was. “We are losing the information war against Russia,” he laments. Another source suggests that the bureaucratic paralysis was due to the deteriorating military situation, and that few people were willing to take the initiative.
For some, the delays in starting the fortification program are a good example. Ukraine has long been in denial, they say, and waited far too long, until February, to start digging. But, knee-deep in the black soil, Oleh, optimistic, counters the criticism. “Try building a trench in snowy and frozen minefields,” he retorts. ■
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