Volkanovski’s striking is elite and it is backed by elite striking metrics. Volkanovski boasts the best punch differential in the history of the featherweight division, landing three more strikes per minute than his opponents. Volkanovski’s strike production is fueled by excellent volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute, a very high number. Volkanovski also ranks in the top three in the history of the featherweight division in significant striking accuracy, landing 57% of his significant striking attempts.
This match is interesting because of Ilia Topuria’s offensive defense. Topuria is excellent at hiding his chin behind his lead shoulder and blocking strikes, and it shows in his striking stats. Topuria has avoided 67% of opponent’s significant strike attempts, the sixth-best rate among all active UFC fighters, regardless of weight class, and the third-best in the history of the featherweight division .
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Volkanovski has been very durable at featherweight – his knockout loss to Islam Makhachev was due to a combination of fighting on short notice and fighting a much bigger opponent in a higher weight division. Volkanovski’s main weakness is open headers, largely because he is smaller than most of his opponents (5’6). Makhachev is a 5’10 southpaw, and his much longer legs allowed him to land a powerful head kick to Volkanovski’s open side that many of Volkanovski’s opponents at featherweight were unable to execute. Topuria is only an inch taller than Volkanovski and fights in an orthodox stance, which creates a different angle of attack than Makhachev.
The fact that Volkanovski is only slightly favored could create value on Volkanovski. Volkanovski has dominated this division for years, and although he is coming off a knockout loss, it was against a very different style of opponent than the one he will face at UFC 298. Volkanovski is also expected to come up a lot more prepared than he was. during his last fight. Topuria’s strong striking defense could make this fight a good candidate to not have a quick finish, and pairing moneyline Alexander Volkanovski with more than 1.5 rounds in a single parlay game (SGP) is a way to get an action with more money.