The quarterbacks are projected to be the top three picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s a foregone conclusion that USC’s Caleb Williams will be selected first overall by the Chicago Bears. The Washington Commanders appear determined to take the No. 2 overall quarterback spot. The options are LSU’s Jayden Daniels, UNC’s Drake Maye and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy. For what it’s worth, Daniels is the odds-on favorite to be the Commanders’ pick.
The 2024 draft could start to get interesting with the third overall pick. New England Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf said in a press conference last week that the organization is “open for business” to trade the third overall pick in the first round of the draft on Thursday. He also said he would be comfortable retaining the pick and likely drafting a quarterback.
Wolf, the de facto general manager, acknowledged that there have been preliminary discussions with teams interested in moving up to No. 3, but that no massive offers have been made. To date, the Patriots have reportedly received offers from teams described as “laughable.” If this continues, the Patriots will keep the third pick.
Teams reportedly interested in signing a quarterback include the Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings and New York Giants. The Giants, Vikings, Broncos and Raiders hold the sixth, 11th, 12th and 13th overall picks, respectively.
In recent years, three transactions involving the third pick could be relevant to creating a basic framework for a deal. The Houston Texans acquired the third overall pick in 2023 to select Will Anderson Jr. and a 2023 fourth-round pick (105th overall) from the Arizona Cardinals last year in exchange for the 12th overall pick in 2023, a 2023 second-round pick (33rd overall). ), a 2024 first-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick.
The San Francisco 49ers moved up from the 12th overall pick in 2021 to the third pick on quarterback Trey Lance. In addition to the 2021 12th overall pick, the Miami Dolphins received a 2022 first-round pick, a 2022 third-round pick and a 2023 first-round pick.
The New York Jets traded up three spots at the third overall pick to select quarterback Sam Darnold. The Colts received the sixth overall pick in 2018, a second round pick in 2018 (37th overall), a second round pick in 2018 (49th overall) and a second round pick in 2019 from the Jets.
A comparable offer might not be enough, as the Patriots are reportedly looking for an unprecedented deal to give up the third pick. Here’s the type of blockbuster offer each of these teams could make that the Patriots shouldn’t turn down.
New York Giants (6th overall pick)
The interest in the Giants quarterback comes as there appears to be buyer’s remorse after giving 2019 sixth overall pick Daniel Jones a four-year, $160 million contract worth up to $195 million through incentives and salary increases in March 2023. Jones was ineffective last season before tearing the ACL in his right knee during a Week 8 game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
The 2025 season is the first year the Giants can opt out of Jones’ contract without negative salary cap consequences. Obviously, trading Jones would be the perfect way to part ways with him next year. If there is no trade, Jones should be released before mid-March. Indeed, $12 million of Jones’ $30 million base salary for 2025 will be fully guaranteed on March 16, the fifth day of the 2025 championship year. Of that $30 million, 23 million dollars was guaranteed in case of injury upon signing.
The Giants are reportedly most interested in Maye. Offering their sixth overall pick in 2024, a second-round pick in 2024 (47th overall), and a first-round pick in 2025 would certainly attract New England’s attention.
Minnesota Vikings (11th overall pick)
Sam Darnold was brought in as a transition quarterback on a one-year, $10 million deal after Kirk Cousins received a four-year, $180 million deal, averaging $45 million per year with $100 million in guarantees, $90 million of which was fully guaranteed to sign, from the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. Finding a potential long-term solution at quarterback is a priority for the Vikings in this year’s draft. Minnesota’s likely target would be Maye at third.
A willingness to give up the 2024 11th overall pick, the 23rd overall pick, a 2025 first round pick and a 2025 fourth round pick for the 2024 third overall pick would be a better harvest than what the Cardinals received from Texans last year or that 49ers gave. the Dolphins in 2021 one spot below the Vikings. The Patriots insisting on All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson should be a deciding factor for the Vikings. Losing an elite receiving talent would not put a young, developing quarterback in the best position to succeed. Having a starting quarterback on a cost-restricted rookie contract is the type of situation in which a team can most easily accommodate Jefferson as one of the highest-paid non-quarterbacks in the league, or even the highest-paid non-quarterback highest paid fullback.
Denver Broncos (12th overall pick)
The failed Russell Wilson experiment has deprived the Broncos of premium picks over the past two years, as the 2022 and 2023 first- and second-round picks were part of the acquisition cost to obtain Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks .
Denver’s draft capital was further depleted by the hiring of head coach Sean Payton. Since Payton was still under contract with the New Orleans Saints, a trade was necessary for him to join the Broncos last season. Denver gave up a 2023 first-round pick (29th overall), a 2024 second-round pick and a 2024 third-round pick for Payton. For this reason, it may make sense for the Broncos to include an accomplished young player in a trade for the third pick.
Denver’s best young player is All-Pro cornerback Patrick Surtain II. He is under contract through 2025 and his fully guaranteed $19.802 million fifth-year option is exercised. Jalen Ramsey in 2019 was the last time a comparable cornerback on a rookie contract was traded. The Jacksonville Jaguars dealt Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams for a 2020 first-round pick, a 2021 first-round pick and a 2021 fourth-round pick in the middle of the 2019 season, when he was his fourth season in the NFL. Ramsey became the NFL’s first $20 million-per-year defensive back just before the start of the 2020 regular season. Like Ramsey, Surtain appears destined to become the NFL’s highest-paid defensive back — which is currently the highest-paid running back Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander on $21 million per year – when he signs a new contract.
Surtain and the 2024 12th overall pick should be enough to move up to the third pick if Ramsey’s trade compensation is any indication. The Patriots would get the equivalent of three first-round picks and one fourth-round pick by accepting the 2024 12th pick and Surtain. The Jamal Adams trade supports this type of valuation. The Seahawks acquired the All-Pro safety early in training camp in 2020 as he entered his fourth NFL season with a fourth-round pick from the Jets in 2022 for the 2021 and 2022 first-round picks, a 2021 third-round pick. and safety Bradley McDougald.
At worst, the Broncos should be able to command a first-round pick and a third-round pick in a free-agent Surtain trade. This is the draft capital the Tennessee Titans received from the Philadelphia Eagles for wide receiver AJ Brown in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Considering the Patriots would need to receive a king’s ransom to exit third place Surtain, the 12th overall pick in 2024 and a third-round pick in 2025 would be needed. Surtain’s valuation for this deal would be somewhere between the two extremes, but closer to Ramsey than Brown.
Las Vegas Raiders (13th overall pick)
The Raiders’ progression hinges on Daniels still being available as the Commanders are going in a different direction at No. 2. There is a pre-existing relationship between Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce and Daniels. Pierce was on the Arizona State coaching staff for all three years Daniels was the Sun Devils’ starting quarterback (2019-2021). Determined to get Daniels, the Raiders put the 2024 13th overall pick, a 2024 third-round pick (77th overall), a 2025 first-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick on the table. third pick of 2024. This is essentially a slight premium over Lance’s compensation, as the Raiders are one pick after where the 49ers were in 2021 when they moved up, factored into the equation.