VSis the The Philippines, the next big hot spot in the South China Sea? On April 13, a Chinese coast guard vessel blocked a maritime research vessel and its escort, both belonging to the Philippines. The incident occurred just 35 nautical miles from the coast of the Philippines and barely inside China’s famous “nine-dash line,” which it uses to claim territory above its waters. There have also been reports of Chinese coast guard ships firing water cannons at supply boats trying to reach troops on the coast. Sierra Madre, a rusty warship deliberately beached by the Philippines in its exclusive economic zone. Chinese boats also swarm around Philippine-occupied islands and patrol its waters.
China has long had contentious relations with countries in the South China Sea. The recent spate of incidents has received greater publicity, in part because the Philippine government is now highlighting China’s actions as part of a “transparency initiative.” This policy shift was driven by President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos who, after being elected in 2022, returned the country to its usual pro-Western stance. In contrast, Rodrigo Duterte, the former president, appeased China, generally remaining silent about its growing aggression in the South China Sea. “He didn’t even want us to patrol our exclusive economic zone, that’s how far he went,” says retired rear admiral Rommel Ong.
Mr. Duterte’s reluctance has brought no benefits. Instead, China has increasingly violently encroached on Philippine waters. In February 2023, China pointed a military-grade laser at a coast guard ship on a resupply mission in the country. Sierra Madre, which sits atop Second Thomas Shoal, temporarily blinding the crew. “We ultimately decided that removing these things was of no use,” says Jay Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines. Since early 2023, the Philippine government has been releasing videos of China’s growing aggression and taking journalists on its patrol ships to witness China’s “gray zone” tactics (strategies of harassment and intimidation that do not correspond to total war).
This increased transparency has made Filipinos aware of Chinese aggression. It also helps Mr. Marcos win international support. Amid growing concerns about China’s coercion in the South China Sea, the president met with Joe Biden, his U.S. counterpart, and Kishida Fumio, the Japanese prime minister, in Washington earlier this month for the first high-level meeting between the three leaders. Mr. Biden warned at the summit that “any attack on Philippine aircraft, ships or armed forces in the South China Sea would invoke our Mutual Defense Treaty.”
So far, publicizing China’s aggression has not deterred him. The number of Chinese ships around Second Thomas Shoal increased in 2023, according to the Asian Maritime Transparency Initiative, a project led by CSIS, an American think tank. It uses data from automatic identification systems to track Chinese ships in the South China Sea. Chinese researchers also claim to have developed a AI-controlled water cannon. Expect further escalation in the world’s most contested waters. ■