We’ve been on a roll with our NBA picks, cashing in four of our last five ATS after a 2-on-3 day on Wednesday. It helps when Jayson Tatum goes for 49 points to beat the Heat and the Rockets… well, the Rockets do what the Rockets do.
Miami and Houston are in action again on Monday, but we’ve got our eyes on a trio of matchups with questionable lines, given how at least one team has fared lately.
Here are our favorite BetMGM bets to open the week:
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Monday NBA odds, pick (via BetMGM)
- Thunder +6.5 @ Hawks
- Suns +3.5 @ Mavericks
- Warriors -11.5 vs. Pacers
Hawks vs. Thunder predictions and analysis (7:30 p.m. ET)
What has already been a dysfunctional season for the Hawks came to a head this weekend with the latest rumors of the feud between superstar guard Trae Young and head coach Nate McMillan – stemming from a reported row over attendance de Young in Friday’s win over the Nuggets.
He is expected to play on Monday, but will be without teammates John Collins (ankle) and De’Andre Hunter (hip), which is a blow for this team after losing three of its last five games. Atlanta won its last two, but so did Oklahoma City, which had an important road win over the Timberwolves before this one.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back to his MVP ways, averaging 31.2 points over his last six games to key a Thunder team with a stellar 8-2 ATS record as a outsider on the road. Don’t be surprised if this one boils down to the yarn.
Pick Hawks vs. Thunder: Thunder +6.5 (BetMGM)
Mavericks vs. Suns prediction and analysis (8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV)
There’s no getting around it: the Suns’ home loss Friday to the Rockets (+11.5) was one of the worst losses for any team of the year. Still, it feels like an overreaction to that result and those teams’ infamous playoff clash to end last season.
In reality, Phoenix has been sizzling lately, winning seven of its last eight games (5-3 ATS) after a 38-point thrashing from Spurs in its last outing. Devin Booker has been nothing short of sensational in recent games in particular, averaging 39 points over his last four games off a filthy 62.8 percent from the floor.
Luka Doncic also played at MVP level, but the Mavericks are still the worst 6-15-1 ATS in the NBA to show, including a miserable 3-8-1 ATS at home. Phoenix won the first time in a thrilling comeback and holds the league’s second-best net rating (+8.4) all season, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see another outright win here.
Mavericks pick vs. Suns: Suns +3.5 (BetMGM)
Warriors vs Pacers prediction and analysis (10 p.m. ET)
When looking to bet on or against the defending champions, it is often enough to check one thing: are they at home?
It’s a cut, obviously, but it’s pretty profitable for these Warriors, who are a stellar 9-2 ATS at home and a league-worst 2-10 ATS on the road. Golden State leads opponents by 11.4 points per game at Chase Center and has won five of its last six home games by double digits following Saturday’s 19-point win over Houston.
I would expect more of the same against the Pacers, who have lost three straight games by at least 16 points and are without superstar guard Tyrese Haliburton (groin) for Monday’s deal. The Dubs earned their last two frontrunners as double-digit favorites by a combined 36 points and should make quick work of Indiana here.
Warriors vs. Pacers pick: Warriors -11.5 (BetMGM)