Christmas Day is the second unofficial start to the NBA season and our betting experts have their best holiday bets.
Philadelphia 76ers (-2,217.5) vs. New York Knicks
12 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York
The Knicks recently won eight straight games and covered all of them! How much do you take that into account when watching this game and which team do you like to cover?
Eric Moody: This trend is important. The Knicks are a balanced team that ranks in the top 10 in offensive and defensive ratings. This team has benefited greatly from the addition of Jalen Brunson in the offseason, and it shows on the field and in New York’s record. Many criticized the signing, but he turned out to be one of the best of the offseason. It would be a holiday gift that would legitimize the Knicks among NBA fans if they beat the 76ers. The Knicks will benefit from Philadelphia’s poor rebound. New York will play well enough to keep this game close or win outright. At home, the 76ers are 12-5-1 ATS, unlike on the road, where they are 5-7. My recommendation is to support the Knicks.
Erin Dolan: Trends are important, but I’m more concerned about the Sixers’ road issues in this game. Philadelphia is 5-7 on the road compared to 14-5 at home. Their offensive rating doesn’t take a huge hit, but their defensive rating goes from 106 at home to 112 on the road. The Knicks beat the Sixers in Philadelphia 106-104 earlier this season. James Harden and Joel Embiid were ruled out while Tyrese Maxey dropped 31 points. I don’t take into account the last game, but rather the Sixers’ road problems. I would take the points with the Knicks.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks (-8.5, 229.5)
2:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
The Lakers and Mavericks are two of the worst teams in the league to cover. Lakers 12-19 ATS and Mavericks 11-19 ATS entering Friday. Does the Lakers’ loss of Anthony Davis tip things over to the home team Mavs covering this one for you?
Moody: Looking at these lineups, it’s obvious the Mavericks have the advantage over the Lakers, but I doubt Dallas will win by more than eight points. Davis’ loss cannot be overstated. Per game, he leads the team in points, rebounds, blocks and steals. The Lakers haven’t been a strong team offensively this season. Los Angeles ranks 21st in points scored per 100 possessions. LeBron James and Luka Doncic should make this a high-scoring affair. Over bets are 6-1-1 in the Mavericks’ last eight appearances on Christmas Day. On Christmas Day, James is averaging 26.4 points in 16 games and in 2021 he has scored 39 against the Nets. Domestically, especially with Davis out, James will bear most of the offensive burden. He can handle it. The Lakers are 10-10 ATS in their last 20 games. My recommendation is to support Los Angeles. The Lakers should keep this game close.
Dolan: It’s not my favorite game on the slate, but Dallas with eight points seems too high in this game. The Mavs are the second-worst covering team in the league behind the Miami Heat. Dallas is 4-5-1 ATS in its last 10 home games. Dallas also ranks 29th in pace at home, while the Lakers rank 1st in pace on the road. Davis is a huge success for this Lakers team, but I should take the points with the Lakers.
Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 224.5)
5 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston
Do you expect any player(s) in this Eastern Conference powerhouse showdown to exceed their season averages? Look for some of your favorite accessories here.
Moody: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 4.5 assists. Over time, Antetokounmpo has become an excellent facilitator and passer. As the defenses sell to contain Antetokounmpo, I love seeing him make the right read and find an open teammate as he heads to the rim. Despite a slow start, the Celtics currently rank sixth in points allowed per 100 possessions. It will take a team effort for the Bucks to beat the Celtics. Antetokounmpo has averaged 5.6 assists per game in the regular season and playoffs against the Celtics since 2018-19.
Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 229) at Golden State Warriors
8 p.m. ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Given the Warriors’ defensive issues lately — they allowed Brooklyn to score a franchise-high 91 points in the first half on Wednesday — do you think over betting is a strong play in this one? -this? It’s also worth noting that the Warriors lead the league in hitting the most (62.5% of the time) but don’t have Stephen Curry available in this one.
Moody: I believe over betting is a strong play in this game. The Grizzlies rank 10th in points scored per 100 possessions without having their top five available this season. His attack is also bolstered by the return of Desmond Bane. In this game with a national audience watching after being beaten by Golden State in last year’s playoffs, the Grizzlies will want to up the score against a shorthanded Warriors team. At home, Golden State is averaging 120.2 points per game while allowing 117.9. A high score match is likely.