Everyone would love a 10-second knockout or a quick submission, but that’s not often how it happens, especially not at the championship level. Instead, it’s usually the contestant who’s come up with the best game plan and does the best job of executing things inside the Octagon who walks away with the raised hand and the gold around the cut.
So how do either of the women pull it off on Saturday night?
Marshal: I don’t think Weili will have the same game plan that Rose had where the fight is very much on the feet and nothing happened. Weili is going to come to fight, and so his path to victory is to keep him upright and pin Carla’s back to the fence.
If Carla steps on that Octagon line, it will be very difficult for Carla to start getting away with her takedowns and strikes; any of them. Weili has to be the aggressor, and I know she worked a lot on her fight to be able to defend that.
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Obviously, Carla is to take Weili down and make a 25-minute – I hate to say it – ridiculously boring decision.
Nicksick: For Carla, if the crowd boos, she wins. She needs to stay on the same move she had with Rose – she can’t stay in front of Weili – and she needs to do a lot against the cage to get Weili beaten and worked, but then get on her legs to wrestle.
She’s going to have to watch her P’s and Q’s and make this a boring, ugly fight if I’m being honest.
On the other side, Weili is going to have to sprawl and brawl for most of this fight because I know Esparza is not going to engage her in the kind of fight she wants. Staying focused will be very important for Weili in this fight because if she chases things down, that’s what Esparza wants for easy takedowns.
She also has to fight three more seconds in this fight, which means when Carla participates in a takedown – say you defend or you spread out or you are able to get her off your legs – that’s the re- shot you need to care about so by the time you get her redirected or defend the takedown you’re going to have to struggle three seconds longer than you actually think because Carla is probably trying to chain something or re-shoot everything right now.
I think it’s a bit of a softball win for Weili if she can do all the right things and not overwork herself trying to knock this girl out; take your time and you will find your shot.
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