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The writer is a contributing columnist, based in Chicago
For the first time in U.S. history, one in seven eligible voters in this year’s presidential election will be Latino. And it could make all the difference in swing states like Wisconsin, where the last two presidential elections were decided by razor-thin margins.
The Latino share of eligible voters in the United States has nearly doubled since 2000, according to the Pew Research Center. “It’s different this year than ever before,” Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican strategist and author of an upcoming book, The Latino century, said. Wisconsin is hardly known as a bastion of Latino voting power, but “the Latino vote is now larger than the African-American vote in Wisconsin,” he says.
The Latino vote has historically swung Democrats, but it hasn’t been decisive nationally in the past, he says, “because the vast majority lived in three states: California, Texas and Florida . But now they will be decisive [swing states such as] Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. He says they could also have a big impact in Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Benjamin Marquez, a political scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, believes this “could easily swing the election in Wisconsin, where 187,000 eligible Latino voters did not vote in the last election.” The state’s 2020 presidential election was decided by just over 20,000 votes. “But the hardest part is getting them to vote.”
“To vote or not to vote, that’s what I’m trying to decide,” a 49-year-old Mexican-American wearing a Harley-Davidson hoodie told me recently outside the El Rey grocery store in Milwaukee. He’s not alone: New census figures recently released show that only about 38% of voting-age Latinos cast ballots in 2022.
The buyer, who only gave his name as Jose, made no secret of his fed up with President Joe Biden, for whom he voted in 2020. “We spent 20 years marching for change , but that didn’t happen,” he said, expressing exasperation at the lack of immigration reforms, such as work permits for long-term immigrants. He even considered voting in favor. of former President Donald Trump.
Armando Rosales, 61, another Mexican-American shopper, says he also plans to vote for Trump. “We need a leader with a strong hand,” he says, imitating the doddering gait of an old man. Many voters fear Biden is too old for another term.
Christine Neumann-Ortiz, Latina and executive director of Voces de la Frontera, an immigrant rights group that tries to persuade such voters to vote for Democrats, warns Rosales and Jose of dire consequences for immigrants if Trump returns to power. . Reluctantly, they both indicate they will likely vote for Biden.
But Veronica Diaz, 48, another Mexican-American from Milwaukee, is part of a substantial minority of Republican Latino Americans. She told me over the phone that she would vote for Trump, as she did in 2016 and 2020. “You may not agree with his personality, but I’d rather vote for someone who will create more jobs and protect us from other countries. »
Republicans could make further inroads among Latinos, after about a third voted for Trump in 2020, Madrid says — although according to a Pew report last week, nearly half of Americans would like to exclude both candidates from the ballot. Currently, 52 percent of Latinos support Biden, compared to 44 percent for Trump.
Hilario Deleon, chairman of the Milwaukee County Republican Party, told me that his party would have no chance of winning in this majority-Democratic county: but if Republicans pick up even a few Latino votes, “that will help the rest of the state get [Trump] cross the finish line.”
Biden described the challenges of a campaign visit to Arizona in March to woo Latino voters: “I need you badly. . . you are the reason – in large part – that I beat Donald Trump [last time].”
Ultimately, Biden’s fate in Wisconsin could come down to whether disaffected voters like Jose and Rosales will go to the polls or stay home. Latino voters have the numbers to make a difference this year: no one knows yet if they will.
