The biggest name on the NFL’s stove in the NFL Draft is expected to be 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, who has been the subject of swirling trade rumors in recent weeks. Reports range from John Lynch wants Aiyuk with the 49ers for his entire career, to Aiyuk could still be traded during the draft and the Steelers pursued him.
Aiyuk definitely won’t come cheap, like Amon-Ra St. Brown’s the new contract proves it. A team might have to give up several draft picks, including a first-round pick for Aiyuk, and then give him a contract extension worth around $30 million per year.
Here are three reasons why teams should go out of their way to acquire him.
1. Aiyuk is REALLY good
First and most importantly, Aiyuk is a true WR1 who has established himself as a star in 2023. He ranked seventh in the NFL with 1,342 receiving yards last year and joined Jerry Rice as only player in 49ers history with at least seven yards per 100 yards. receive matches during a season.
Recreational grounds |
1,342 |
7th |
100 meter games |
7 |
T-4th |
Yards per reception |
17.9 |
2nd |
First attempt PCT |
81% |
1st |
Yards per course |
3.1 |
2nd |
He’s underrated and that should erase any qualms about his ability to be a WR1. He caught 14 of 20 passes thrown outside the numbers and over 15 air yards last season, the best rate (70%) of any player over the past four seasons (min. 20 targets). He can line up outside and beat you deep.
He’s also one of the best route runners in the league, capable of catching the ball in traffic and doing damage after the catch. He averaged 3.1 yards per route in 2023, the third-best rate in the NFL behind Tyreek Hill and Nico Collins (min. 400 routes).
Aiyuk earned the highest overall grade (96) among ESPN’s 2023 receiver metrics, which use NFL Next Gen Stats player tracking data on each route to evaluate how a player opens, catches and wins YAC. He also specifically had the highest catch rating (97), which looks at the likelihood of a catch happening based on factors such as where a receiver is in relation to defenders.
Simply put, Aiyuk is a fantastic defender, a route technician who can snatch the ball and get YAC, but also burn you deep.
2. Veteran WRs are worth it
The NFL is a copycat league and the hottest trend is trading a first-round pick for a veteran receiver. These transactions have had a very high success rate in recent years.
Check out the five veterans traded for a first-round pick since 2020. Four of the five are superstars with the exception of Marquise Brown. And another added benefit is that three of the acquiring teams (Eagles, Dolphins, Bills) saw their young QBs flourish after the deal. The Jaguars and Colts should go all-in on Aiyuk.
3. Drafting a WR in the first round is much riskier
Offering a first-round pick to a player like Aiyuk is even more appealing when you consider the alternative.
Only 27% of WRs drafted in the first round from 2000 to 2019 signed a second contract with their draft team (according to ESPN’s Paul Hembekides), the worst rate among all positions.
Even though the cost for a veteran WR is much higher than for a player on his rookie deal, I’ll take the success rate of trading a first round pick for a veteran WR over drafting one with this choice.
The question is: Will the 49ers actually play ball? I do not think so. San Francisco managed to right the ship and extend Deebo Samuel two years ago when that relationship seemed broken. They’re in the middle of Super Bowl contention and can’t afford to lose Aiyuk, even if they have to pay him and Brock Purdy.
Yes, the 49ers have a lot of stars on long-term contracts and tough decisions to make. We’ve already seen them release Arik Armstead this offseason. Additionally, Charvarius Ward goes off the books after 2024 and Deebo Samuel’s contract expires after 2025. These are the names they could move on from to keep Aiyuk.