Every year, it is believed that next year’s NFL Draft quarterback class will be more impressive than today’s. That was true last year, but the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. Consider the amount of hype that surrounded Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s CJ Stroud during the preseason and how the narrative changed over the weeks.
“Just wait until next year’s draft class” already pervades the Scouting community and it’s a dangerous game, but is that right?
First, let’s take a general look at the concept of waiting an extra year to take on the job.
Many things can change
USC quarterback Matt Barkley was considered a top quarterback prospect and potential top-10 overall pick after the 2011 season, but returned for his senior campaign. A year later, he was taken to the fourth round, No. 98 overall. BYU’s Zach Wilson went from unknown to No. 2 overall selection in a calendar year. A lot can change, and so can NFL teams.
Unfortunate injuries, a tough schedule, and/or other extenuating circumstances may cause a franchise to be picked early in a year’s draft, but its fortunes could change afterward. It’s much easier to be aggressive and get a coveted player by picking in the top 3 than finishing with a .500 record and picking No. 14 overall. Then there’s the understanding that teams miss quarterback ratings every year. You can probably think of five “busts” on top of your head. The other side of this coin lands on Lamar Jackson down to No. 32 overall, with Patrick Mahomes falling to No. 10 overall (after Mitchell Trubisky) and the more extreme cases like Tom Brady, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson.
The stars could line up for a franchise to land its potential quarterback of the future, but if they don’t have a strong supporting cast and a capable coaching staff, then the resources may not be in place. for that player to succeed anyway.
Assessment of Drake Maye and Caleb Williams
‘Just wait for class next year.’
North Carolina’s Drake Maye and USC’s Caleb Williams are already considered better quarterback prospects than what’s available in the 2023 NFL Draft (Texas’ Quinn Ewers is another one to watch). Neither is a finished product, but both have tools that validate the buzz.
Neither Maye nor Williams are eligible for the 2023 NFL Draft, so my assessment of each is only at the surface level (two games), but here are my thoughts on what the two talented quarterbacks bring to the table. .
Maye displays good arm strength and throws an accurate deep ball, leading his receivers. It’s evident that the Tar Heels QB has a natural feel for the game and the mobility to make plays that extend the drive. The most important piece for his development is the repetition of matches. He can be too erratic at times. There are times when he moves the pocket, has time to replant and throw, but rushes the pass, resulting in poor ball placement. He is prone to making one bad decision per game. As he gains experience, these frustrating plays should be phased out of his game. Maye does a great job of throwing on the run, but needs to do a better job of protecting the ball. TruMedia credits him with six fumbles this season. He was sacked on 7.8% of his losses for a grand total of 41 sacks, which is tied for fourth among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts.
Williams, the defending Heisman Trophy winner, is more polished than Maye right now. He has good top speed and elusiveness as a runner, which leads to a tendency to extend plays and allow more time for coverage to break down. He does a great job of throwing while running and displays good pocket mobility. Oklahoma’s transfer threw for over 4,000 yards, 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while rushing for 372 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Young is more polished right now, but his lack of ideal height will be present in scouting reports. As a result, it may not be suitable for all teams. There is no doubt that Maye and Williams would have universal support. They have the size and improvisational play ability that NFL teams are looking for in this position. Could a case be made for Young as the top prospect? Absolutely. However, it’s easy to see why some may have the two young quarterbacks at the top of their respective hierarchies.
There’s a lot to like about the options that should be available to teams next year. But there is a danger in waiting to approach the position.