Those closely following the Bitcoin spot ETF saga probably already know that Bloomberg Intelligence analysts put the chances of approval next week at 90%.
But not everyone sees it that way.
Markus Thielen, head of research for crypto platform Matrixport, said Tuesday he believes all of these applications “fail to meet a critical requirement” – adding that the chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission – United, Gary Gensler “still saw this industry as needing stronger compliance.”
Learn more: SEC Delays Bitcoin Spot ETFs ‘Not Impossible,’ But Unlikely: Balchunas
As the SEC’s Jan. 10 deadline to rule on a proposal from Ark Invest and 21Shares approaches, other industry observers continue to debate the fate of these funds.
Stefan Rust, CEO of data provider Truflation, said he agreed that Gensler had given no indication that he was ready to greenlight a Bitcoin ETF.
“Governments and regulators have not yet identified how they can exert control over cryptocurrencies,” Rust argued in a statement. “There is no doubt that they are looking for more time and choke points to prevent access to cryptocurrencies from a decentralized system.”
Chase White and Joe Flynn, analysts at Compass Point Research & Trading, said in a Dec. 15 note that recent meetings between fund issuers and the SEC support the company’s base case for spot approval of ETFs. Bitcoin in January. The regulator could wait, however, they added.
“We think it’s possible that the SEC won’t be quite ready to approve ETFs at first [January] and will ask Ark Invest [and] 21Shares…to refile the application to give the SEC more time, rather than reject it outright,” White and Flynn wrote.
But Scott Johnsson, general partner at Van Buren Capital, said in a series of X-rated posts Wednesday that he was confident approval would come between Jan. 8 and 10.
Learn more: Industry Observers Determine Possible Bitcoin ETF Approval Dates
He added: “There are no more bullets in the SEC’s gun. »
The SEC’s August court loss to Grayscale Investments put more pressure on the regulator to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs, industry observers and executives argued. The judges in the case said the regulator’s decision to deny the conversion of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to an ETF – but to approve Bitcoin futures ETFs – was “arbitrary and capricious”.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, called several arguments in the Matrixport report “absurd” in a report job, citing Grayscale’s legal victory. Galaxy has proposed a spot bitcoin ETF with its partner Invesco.
Jihan Wu, co-founder of Matrixport defended Thielen’s report, saying he believes spot approval of the Bitcoin ETF at some point is “inevitable.” Thielen did not respond to a request for comment.
Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of digital wealth platform Yield App, called Bitcoin’s price drop on Wednesday a “buying opportunity.”
If the SEC rejects Bitcoin ETFs again, this time it would block attempts not only from crypto-focused firms but also from fund giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco and Franklin Templeton.
BlackRock, which manages about $9 trillion in assets, has only had one ETF proposal rejected by the SEC – a so-called non-transparent fund structure in 2014.
“There is too much pressure and expectation from the world’s largest asset managers for Gary Gensler and the rest of the approval committee to continue kicking ass into the future,” Kiely said .
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