Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will face Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. The Bengals and Dolphins will face off at Paycor Stadium on Thursday night in the first game of the week. Cincinnati is 1-2 this season and is coming off an important Week 3 win over the New York Jets. Miami is unblemished at 3-0 and riding high after a win over the Buffalo Bills. Under bets have hit in all three of the Bengals’ games this season and two of Miami’s three outings.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bengals as 3.5-point home favorites, while the plus/minus, or total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bengals odds. Before making any choices between the Bengals and Dolphins and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s resident Dolphins expert Larry Hartstein has to say.
A former editor of Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines an extensive network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Going into the 2022 NFL season, he has an all-time 427-344 record on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 ATS. Hartstein was 68-50 ATS (58%) and 8-3 on Money Line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
Additionally, Hartstein was 21-10-1 on his last 32 picks involving the Dolphins, netting nearly $1,000. Everyone who followed him is upstairs.
Now Hartstein has set his sights on the Dolphins against the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. You can head over to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Dolphins vs Bengals:
- Difference between Dolphins and Bengals: Bengals -3.5
- Dolphins vs. Bengals over/under: 48.5 points
- Silver line Dolphins vs Bengals: Bengals -195, Dolphins +162
- Miami: Dolphins are 12-7-1 ATS in their last 20 games
- Cincinnati: Bengals are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games
Why dolphins can cover
Miami is backed by one of the most dynamic wide receiver duos in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are just the second pair in NFL history to have at least 300 receiving yards each in the first three weeks. Both rank in the top five in the league in receiving yards, and Hill brings a new threat to Miami’s offense. The six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro selection is in the top five with 14.7 yards per touch and 317 yards and two touchdowns in three games. Hill was also in the top 10 in receiving yards (1,239) and receiving touchdowns (nine) last season, with a long track record of success.
Waddle set the NFL rookie receiving record with 104 receptions last season and ranks in the top 10 in receptions and yards since the start of the 2021 season. In 2022, Waddle leads the NFL with 17.1 yards per touch, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently ranks in the top five in completion rate (71.3%), yards per pass attempt (9.2), passing touchdowns (eight ), passing yards (925), passer rating (117.8) and QBR (82.8) in three games.
Why the Bengals can cover
The Bengals are above the NFL average in generating 21.3 points per game and in the top five in the league with 71 first downs. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon and Tee Higgins form an elite foursome for the Bengals, and it’s a friendly game against a Miami defense. The Dolphins are giving up 413.7 yards per game and 44.1 yards per drive this season, landing in the NFL’s bottom five in both categories.
Miami is also getting nearly 300 passing yards per game, and opponents have 71 first downs against the Dolphins. With the Dolphins also giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 116 rushing yards per game, Cincinnati should be able to establish Joe Mixon and the rushing offense as the Dolphins allow the opposition to convert 48.6% of third down opportunities.
How to Make Choices Between Dolphins and Bengals
Hartstein analyzed this game and while we can tell you he’s looking at total points, he’s discovered a critical X-factor that’s causing him to jump to one side of the gap. He’s just sharing what it is, and which side to support, at SportsLine.
Who wins the Bengals against the Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread unavoidable? Visit SportsLine now to see which way the Bengals vs. Dolphins spread at fullback, all from the pundit who picked 21-10 over Miami.