The Kansas City Chiefs are on the verge of becoming a dynasty.
The reigning Super Bowl champions are in their fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons and are only the third team to do so, joining the Buffalo Bills of the 1990s (1990-1993) and the New England Patriots of the 1990s. 2010 (2014-2018). If they beat the NFC champion San Francisco 49ers for a third title in that span, with a second win over the 49ers in that run, they will undoubtedly be a dynasty.
Here’s a look at the top three reasons why they will propel themselves to a Super Bowl LVIII title to conclude the 2023 season.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes throwing to tight end Travis Kelce resulted in the best completion percentage (80.9%) and passer rating (139.2) among 30 quarterback-receiver duos with 50 pass attempts or passes to each other in the last 15 playoff series. They also had the most touchdowns by a quarterback-receiver duo with 17, two more than Tom Brady’s connection to Rob Gronkowski and their 15 in tandem. They’re like John Stockton passing Karl Malone, if this Hall of Fame basketball duo actually made it in the NBA Finals.
This is how their connection manifests itself in critical situations:
- 23 of 28, 14 TDs in the red zone
- 18 of 24, 4 TDs on throws over 15 air yards
- 31 of 36, 5 TDs in blitz
- 30 of 41, 5 TDs under pressure
In three career games against San Francisco, including Super Bowl LIV that closed the 2019 season, Mahomes completed 20 of 24 passes to Kelce for 255 yards and a touchdown.
There has also never been a better playoff pass catcher in league history than Kelce. His 156 postseason catches broke the previous all-time record of 151 set by GOAT general receiver Jerry Rice. Kelce is four postseason receiving touchdowns away from surpassing Rice’s postseason record of 22 touchdowns.
2. The Chiefs’ best defense of the 21st century
Not only is Steve Spagnuolo’s 2023 defense the best of his tenure in Kansas City, it’s the best Chiefs defense of the 21st century. Including the playoffs, they rank second in the league in defense (16.8 PPG allowed), fourth in total defense (294.7 total YPG allowed), and first in sack rate (8.6%).
Chiefs defense this season, including the playoffs
PPG authorized |
16.8* |
1997 |
Total YPG allowed |
294.7* |
1995 |
Dismissal rate |
8.6%* |
1992 |
* All NFL top four this season
The Chiefs defense is playing at an all-time high this year, along with some of the best defenses in recent memory. They have allowed fewer than 28 points in each of their 20 games, the most such games in a season in NFL history, including the playoffs. Each of the four teams to have done so in all their games in the Super Bowl era, since 1966: the 2000 Ravens (all 19 games), the 2002 Buccaneers (all 19 games), the 2005 Steelers ( all 19 games) and the 2010 Packers (all 19 games) – each won the Super Bowl.
In their last six games, which includes their entire playoff run and their final three regular season games, Kansas City’s defense has been impenetrable in the second half and especially in the fourth quarter. They allowed one touchdown and just 19 points in their final six second halves, including zero (none, zilch, zero) touchdowns and just six points in their final six fourth quarters.
How do they do all this? Spagnuolo’s group is equipped with All-Pros at defensive tackle (Chris Jones) and cornerback (McDuffie) and plenty of growing youngsters (George Karlaftis, tied for a team-high 10.5 sacks with Jones, the defensive end Mike Danna, linebacker Willie Gay Jr., linebacker Nick Bolton).
Spagnuolo himself also showed the type of schematic flexibility needed to adapt and survive throughout the playoffs. He is known as an aggressive blitzer, and the 2023 regular season supported that notion: the Chiefs blitzed on 37% of opposing putbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Spags became more selective in the face of manufacturing pressure, blitzing on just 30.4 percent of opponent losses, the eighth-highest rate out of 14 teams in the postseason.
He was varied throughout with his signature pressure looks. The Chiefs blitzed 21 total against the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but then faced 2023 first-team All-Pro quarterback Lamar Jackson, with 20 blitzes against the Ravens. All 20 were unique blitzes, meaning each was different based on who blitzed, from where and with what coverage behind it, according to CBS Sports Research. Spagnuolo completed a season-high 12 defensive back blitzes against Jackson for the Chiefs, with excellent results: 21 passing yards allowed and a sack taken on 3-of-10 passing.
Spagnuolo mixes it all together
The Chiefs are blitzing this playoffs
- vs. Dolphins/Bills: 21 blitzes (four with six+ pass rushers)
- vs. Ravens: 20 blitzes (seven with six+ pass rushes)
The Chiefs use blitzing defensive backs more than anyone with 108 plays with it, and the fewest passing yards per pass attempt allowed (4.9) with the concept in 2023. When McDuffie is involved in the pass rush, the Chiefs Opposing quarterbacks have struggled: 46% completion percentage, 4.2 yards per pass attempt and a TD-INT ratio of 0-2 when McDuffie is in the pass rush this season.
They allow 13.7 points per game in the playoffs against opponents who averaged 28.0 points per game in the regular season, throwing elite offenses 6 feet under in turn after turn. This buzzsaw will be one of the main reasons why Kansas City can come away with a victory on Sunday.
Chiefs playoff defense
- Held the Dolphins to their season’s worst scores in points (7), yards per play (4.5) and third downs (1 of 12)
Miami had the longest active streak in the NFL averaging over 5 yards per broken play (17 games).
- Held the Bills to their fewest yards per pass attempt (4.8) since 2021 and their fewest yards per completion (7.2) since 2018
Buffalo had the second-longest active streak in the NFL averaging over 5 yards per pass attempt (39 games).
- Held the Ravens to a record 81 rushing yards and the fewest time of possession (22:30) of Lamar Jackson’s career
Baltimore had its longest active streak (also tied for fifth-longest streak in NFL history) with over 100 rushing yards broken (35 games).
1. QB Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes is on fire, even by his lofty standards. He has not thrown an interception in six consecutive playoff starts, the longest streak by a quarterback in playoff history after throwing a minimum of 20 passes in every playoff game. The end result of each of these contests was a victory for the Chiefs. As a result, Mahomes, 28, is poised to become the first quarterback to start his fourth Super Bowl before the age of 30.
Patrick Mahomes’ playoff performance since 2022
W.L. |
6-0 |
1st |
PCT Comp |
70% (142-203) |
1st |
Pass TD |
11 |
1st |
TD-INT |
11-0 |
1st |
Passing grade |
107.6 |
3rd |
* Ranks among 14 QBs with 50 or more pass attempts in last two playoffs
Mahomes also shredded the 49ers secondary the last time these two teams played, a 44-23 Chiefs victory at San Francisco in Week 7 of the 2022 season. He threw three touchdowns and racked up 423 passing yards while completing 25 of his 34 pass attempts. That led to a career-high 12.4 yards per pass attempt for Mahomes in the win.
He particularly feasted on his zone coverage, averaging 15.1 yards per pass attempt against him, the highest rate ever recorded by a quarterback in a game against any team during of the last four seasons, including the playoffs, among 1,430 quarterback games with at least 20 pass attempts against a player. team zone coverage. Sure, their defensive coordinator at the time was current Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans, but their scheme is still zone heavy under current DC Steve Wilks.
The 49ers have played zone defense on 79.7% of their defensive plays this postseason, the second-highest rate among the 14 teams, and they have succeeded at it, allowing the lowest zone passer rating this postseason playoffs (76.2).
No matter what Wilks throws at Mahomes, he will likely end up beating San Francisco’s strong zone coverage and allow the Chiefs to become the NFL’s first repeat Super Bowl champions since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots, ending to the longest drought without repeat Super Bowl champions. in NFL history.