Headlines are circulating claiming that Apple has cut Vision Pro production by almost 50% due to low demand. Here’s why they’re almost certainly fake.
The source for these articles is a new note from supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been reporting on Apple’s supply chain for more than 10 years. Kuo’s claims sometimes turn out to be true, but not always, and his latest contradicts not only what we know about Vision Pro production, but also what Kuo himself said just a few months ago.
Specifically, Kuo claims that Apple has reduced its sales forecast for Vision Pro from a “market consensus” of 700 to 750,000 units to 400 to 450,000 units, a reduction of about 40 percent.
Kuo says this is due to weaker than expected US demand, leading to a reduction in production ahead of the global launch. Yet as recently as February, Kuo said Apple’s 2024 U.S. goal was 150 to 200,000 units, and in January he said Apple had sold nearly 200,000 pre-orders. MacRumors separately cited “a source with knowledge of Apple’s sales figures” as saying that Apple had sold 200,000 pre-orders, which is particularly ironic given that it now presents Kuo’s claim as if it This was official news.
Additionally, in January, Kuo referred to Apple Vision Pro “reaching a shipping volume of 500,000 units” as a goal. It’s not just a random number – it’s what multiple sources report as Apple’s supply limit for the year, regardless of demand.
The Financial Times, The Information and The Elec have previously reported that Vision Pro production is severely limited by the extremely limited supply of micro-OLED displays. All three sources indicated that Sony, the supplier, could only produce enough micro-OLED displays for less than half a million headsets in 2024. Under these conditions, why would this so-called “market consensus” have been 700 to 750,000 headset units in the first place? ? It just doesn’t make sense.
With an entry price of $3,500, Apple Vision Pro was never going to be a mass market success. The product’s very name suggests that this is just the beginning of the Vision headset line, and several sources have reported that Apple is planning a much more affordable model later in the decade. But Vision Pro’s price is dictated by its production and supply constraints, and it is these constraints that limit its volume, which is no less than expected demand.
Don’t believe everything you read.