The 2022 NFL season was full of exciting finishes and unpredictable results, but nothing could top Week 15’s slate of games. It was the first week in NFL history in which three teams have had wins over 17 points, all of which have altered playoff runs.
The Cincinnati Bengals rallied from 17 to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, taking sole possession of the AFC North’s top spot in the process. The Jacksonville Jaguars earned a first-place game in the AFC South with a comeback win over the Dallas Cowboys, helping the Philadelphia Eagles take a three-game lead in the NFC East with three remaining. Of course, the Minnesota Vikings clinched the NFC North on Saturday after their 33-point comeback victory – the biggest deficit overcome in NFL history.
Thanks to comeback wins and exciting finishes in the league, there was plenty to take away from the Sunday afternoon game slate. Which are reality and which are overreactions? Here is an overview.
The Cowboys won’t win a playoff game
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Dallas hasn’t looked to come close to a Super Bowl-caliber team in recent weeks, needing a practice late in the fourth quarter to beat the Houston Texans to a win last week. In Week 15, the Cowboys blew a 17-point lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars to lose in overtime.
Forget the NFC East, the Cowboys are three behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the division with three games left and the Eagles own the head-to-head tiebreaker. All the Eagles have to do is win a game to clinch the division (it doesn’t have to be in Week 16 at Dallas).
Can this team win a playoff game in a month with the way they play? It’s certainly not a formula for doing it – playing below average against AFC South sub-0.500 teams. But the Cowboys will get the NFC South winner in the first round of the playoffs barring an epic meltdown, and despite looking the past two weeks, they should beat any team.
Jaguars set to win AFC South
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Jacksonville is just one game behind the Tennessee Titans for the division lead with three games to go – with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand. The Titans are 7-6 after their loss to the Chargers and the Jaguars are up to 6-7 with their win over the Cowboys.
The Titans and Jaguars will square off in Week 18, with Tennessee taking on Houston and Dallas before that game. Jacksonville takes on the New York Jets over a short week, followed by Houston, before the regular season finale.
The Jaguars still need help, but their path to the playoffs is there. With the way the Titans are playing, this division could be Jacksonville’s one to lose.
Bengals will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
It’s a bit of a leap, even though Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. The Bengals are in first place in the AFC North, one game behind the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs for the conference’s top seed. There is a path for the Bengals to get the AFC top seed, which comes in Week 17 against the Bills.
If Cincinnati wins this game, the Bengals will have the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Bills and Chiefs. Cincinnati still needs to finish the job against Baltimore, which is one game away from the division with the head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Bengals need to accomplish a lot to secure the No. 1 seed, needing help in the process (Kansas City has lost one of its last three games). It can be done, but it’s not the most likely outcome.
Patrick Mahomes will break the NFL record for passing yards in a season
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Mahomes is sitting at 4,496 passing yards in 14 games, averaging 321.1 yards per game. Peyton Manning holds the single-season record for passing yards with 5,477, so Mahomes needs 982 passing yards in his last three games to break the mark (325.7 yards per game).
That’s more than achievable for a quarterback, which is why his team is one of the best in the NFL. The Chiefs need Mahomes to play at MVP level every week and he delivers. Mahomes needs just 754 yards in his last three games to set the league record for passing + rushing yards in a season (Drew Brees has that mark with 5,562).
Both records are in play. Mahomes will have the hardest part to accomplish.
Jalen Hurts will set the single-season TD record by a QB
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Hurts already has 13 rushing touchdowns this season, in sole possession of second place for fastest touchdowns in a season by a quarterback in NFL history. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback needs just one touchdown to tie Cam Newton’s record of 14 – two to pass him.
Hurts has three games to get two rushing touchdowns and the Eagles always seem to let him run the ball inside the 2-yard line. Newton’s mark will be tied – at the very least.
The Lions will make the playoffs
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Yes, that was mentioned last week. It’s one worth revisiting after Detroit’s victory over the New York Jets, coupled with the Seattle Seahawks’ loss this week. The Lions are still the No. 9 seed in the conference thanks to Seattle owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, but Detroit should be – at worst – half a game behind the Commanders and Giants for the last berth in the conference playoffs.
The Lions are closing in on the Panthers, Bears and Packers — all teams with losing records. It doesn’t matter who wins between Washington or New York, Detroit getting at least nine wins is now a reality. The Lions can even finish 10-7 with the way they play.
Whoever wins between Washington and New York looks set to secure one of the NFC playoff spots. Detroit seems on track to get the other one.
Mike Tomlin will end with an undefeated season
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
The Steelers avoided having a guaranteed losing season with their victory over the Panthers, going 6-8 with three games remaining. Pittsburgh must win for Tomlin to maintain his streak at 17 — a task that won’t be easy.
Pittsburgh ends its season with Las Vegas (6-8), Baltimore (9-5) and Cleveland (6-8) – with the only game on the road in Baltimore. The margin for error is slim, but the Steelers are still in the playoff hunt (even if their playoff chances are slim).
Hard to see the Steelers winning, but Pittsburgh can make it interesting.