This spring will be the 63rd presentation of the Oscar Robertson Trophy, awarded by the United States Basketball Writers Association to the best college player in the country. Of the 62 previous winners, each was chosen from the top 34 picks in the NBA Draft. Only two, Frank Mason in 2017 and Jalen Brunson in 2018, were taken in the second round.
But this year’s winner might not be selected at all. Iowa big man Luka Garza has as much of a chance to win the award as anyone. And he’s not even on some mock project listings.
I find it a fascinating circumstance. While everyone cites the differences between professional and college gaming, no player has ever embodied this contrast more than Garza. Most of his horizontal skills just can’t translate into a vertical league.
And a big part of what makes central Iowa special is what it does around the hoop to cut through traffic, twisting and pivoting to spin shots on the glass and the rim. It’s a legitimate concern that his earthy style and, shall we say, his deliberate deliveries will see a lot of the punches he now takes crushed in various second rows in NBA arenas. His feet are not agile enough, his calves not explosive enough.
The sad part is that Garza’s footwork and his ability to use his body is art. Its moves just aren’t fast or explosive enough to be as effective in a game where spring-loaded pterodactyls fly around the hoop waiting to spike any moving orb.
Additionally, Garza will be a defensive passive for anyone who signs it. It’s just too clunky to protect anyone except the slowest big backups. So he better be precious on the other end.
I still believe in the kid. I think he’s going to make a roster somewhere and become a situational player who doesn’t fit into a regular rotation but can be spotted against forwards and reserve power centers.
It’s because I think this son of a motivational speaker father and Slovenian national team mom will find a way. In over half a century of watching Big Ten basketball, I’ve rarely seen anyone maximize their natural gifts as Garza. It shows me his resolve and his will. He will do whatever is necessary like water to find a crevice in the sidewalk.
But one factor is why I believe in him: he can shoot. He’s one of the best great shooting men I’ve ever seen, both in the different types of shots he can do and in his judgment of what a good shot is. His feet may not be bouncy or quick, but they get where they need to go to give him balance, especially when he shoots simple jumpers.
And so, I think he’ll develop his shot further from the rim where the risk of being crushed is less. If the defenses are late for some reason, he will hit the shot halfway. If they don’t aggressively keep the pick-n-roll, he’ll jump and hit all three.
This is the shot that will keep him in the league. And he’s shown this season (.446 3P%) that he can hit it with accuracy that suggests the extra half-yard (19 inches) away from the NBA’s 3-point arc won’t be a problem. .
Garza doesn’t shoot the triple as much now (33-74 3PG) because Fran McCaffrey needs him on the blocks. Three-point shooters he has; the Hawkeyes are the 4th most accurate on triplets in the nation (0.401 3P%) and have three reliable snipers to fill that role. Garza is literally the hub of Iowa’s attack, the axle from which all the spokes move. The threat of his post-up game spins the Hawks’ offense.
He will then have to redesign his game to become valuable in the NBA. I’ve seen others do it and it’s always the guys with the same relentless personalities. Two guards JJ Redick, who shared the Robertson Trophy in 2006, remade his physique and his catch-n-shoot alley shooter game at Duke into a stiff NBA wildcat, able to simulate the jumper and dive inside for an array of floats, shovels and tears in the traffic that kept the defenders honest. he is always playing.
No, Garza is not a shooting guard. But there are plenty of slow-footed bigs out there who have not only discovered a situational niche, but are starting out and even excelling – because they can hit jumpers face-up, elbow, or 15 feet from the baseline, The whole road. 5 feet beyond the arch.
You have the eccentric euros like abandoned former 76ers Nik Vucevic from the magic who only recently started shooting three and now fills him from there (.401 3P%) to the tune of 24 points per game.
At the level of simple survivors, you have Michigan product, Mo Wagner, hanging out 14 minutes for the horrible wizards. But he’s been in the league for three years now, increased his overall shooting percentage to 0.561 and still gets a few starts in a pinch.
Between these two extremes, there are all kinds of intermediate cases. And let’s be clear, there are a lot of mediocre big men in the league right now because they’ve been devalued.
I have an old friend who is decidedly on the other side of this Garza NBA argument and who stings me every now and then about his tired feet and lack of lift. And I’m not saying that’s not a problem; this will be the case, especially on defense. Even Iowa has to hide it behind areas more often than not.
And Garza’s mediocre effort against agile Michigan freshman center Hunter Dickinson in the Wolverines’ emphatic 79-57 win on Thursday night got my pal even more on fire. Garza did not look like an NBA prospect in any way.
But we were seeing him at the end of a power conference season in which he depended on a large percentage of everything his team does, especially points. He’s a bit worn out playing 32 minutes a game, and that compounds his shortcomings. He won’t be asked to do pretty much that in the NBA. More like 8-14 minutes against the opposing team’s second string. Big difference.
Plus, Garza won’t be put in a position where he has to keep anyone like Joel Embiid. He won’t be there. He will be asked to play against other fringe players who all have responsibilities of one type or another.
What Garza will do is what all smart gamers and resolute gamers do – he will learn to limit his responsibilities and harness his strengths. He will look for situations where he can do what he does best. And he won’t do what he can’t. If that sounds simplistic, it isn’t. Trying to prove they can do what they can’t is the reason many NBA players never leave the bench. Their coaches cannot trust them.
But Garza, you can throw him out there in mid-January, when nobody really wants to play that hard and he’ll play like his career depends on it. Because it will. Besides, he won’t play the fool. He won’t be a coach killer. He will help his team win close matches against bad opponents when no one is watching him.
If that sounds like low praise, it isn’t. Wins are wins, every time you get them, for teams just trying to make the playoffs and for those who are safe but trying to strengthen their standings and position on the pitch. Do you think that is not a valuable asset for a coach? It is.
Do you know who will still be hanging around with a paycheck next year and the year after? Guys like Dwight Howard. Expensive veterans whose once amazing physical gifts are in decline and now have to rely on basketball intelligence they never really had to develop.
Somewhere there will be a mutt waiting to take this guy’s place. Someone like Luka Garza. And there will be a coach and a general manager who will think about it.
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• Although PSU kept Ed DeChellis and Pat Chambers after many close losses, Jim Ferry can’t expect the same luck.