Date: Tuesday, December 27, 2022
Time: 7:00 p.m. Central
Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Marquette Stat Leaders
Points: Kam Jones, 16.4 points per game
Bounces: Oso Ighodaro, 6.8 rpg
Aids: Tyler Kolek, 7.5 apg
Seton Hall Stat Leaders
Points: Al-Amir Dawes, 10.9ppm
Bounces: Tyrese Samuel, 6.2 rpg
Aids: Kadary Richmond, 3.5 apg
KenPom.com Rankings
Marquette: #27
Seton Room: #64
Game screening: Marquette has a 75% chance of winning with an expected score of 75-67.
This season so far: Can we call this a mixed bag for the Pirates? Is this the fairest way to read things? They have a pair of NET Quadrant 1 wins in a road (albeit horribly ugly) win over No. 39 Rutgers in their in-state rivalry game, and they came away from the Disney World tournament with a 70-69 against No. 44 Memphis. Its good!
They also lost to Siena in that Disney World tournament, and it’s a Quadrant 3 loss at the moment with the Saints at #187…and it’s just not Quadrant 4 because Siena just beat American on Thursday to move from #212 to #187. Nothing against Siena, but something tells me that loss finally comes back in the fourth quarter. Seton Hall has also lost every other game in Quadrants 1, 2 and 3 they have played so far this season, including opening the Big East game 0-2 after giving up a late 10-1 against Providence in home to lose by four and keep it close but ultimately falling 73-70 on Xavier’s road.
If you want to think if in simpler terms than the NET quadrants? Seton Hall is 2-5 against KenPom’s top-70 teams and 4-1 against KenPom’s under-190 teams. They also have an 82-55 win over Division 2 Lincoln University which they count as a regular season game, which sounds good…but it was a single-digit lead with 11 minutes left. play before the Pirates finished on a 31-11 run.
Mixed bag, right?
Tempo Free Fun: There’s no other way around this, so let’s face it. Seton Hall stinks in attack. KenPom has them 155th in the nation in overall offensive efficiency. It’s the worst number in the Big East, easily passing DePaul at No. 105 and the Blue Demons played with a hand tied behind their back due to injury. The Pirates can’t shoot the ball, connecting on just 30% of their threes and 49% of their twos. Those shooting percentages rank 306th and 200th in the nation. These are bad enough to drive your offensive efficiency straight to hell, even though Seton Hall doesn’t like three-man shooting, but that’s not even their real problem.
22% of their possessions end up with the ball going the other way without a shot going up. This is the last 40 of country level stuff. This is how you end up as the worst offense in the league by a wide margin: one-fifth of your possessions are empty. There are six guys in the roster who have a turnover rate north of 21% on a personal level. Three of them – KC Ndefo, Al-Amir Dawes and Kadary Richmond – are in Seton Hall’s starting lineup, and those three guys have a 24% north turnover rate. Ndefo, who is on this list because he followed head coach Shadeen Holloway from Saint Peter’s to South Orange, turns the ball on almost 30% of possessions when on the ground. And he plays 60% of their minutes. If Marquette increases the defensive pressure enough – and honestly, they may not have to do it that far – Seton Hall will literally hand this game over to the Golden Eagles.
That’s not to say SHU’s offense is a complete joke. They have two things that MU will have to watch out for. They’re a strong offensive rebounding team, ranking 106th in the nation for second chances. Marquette has been particularly vulnerable to good offensive rebounding teams, but again, by “vulnerable” I mean United have had the misfortune to play against three of the top 10 GOLD teams in the country – Purdue, Mississippi State and Providence – and took a loss to all three. Seton Hall isn’t that good, but it’s still a crack in MU’s armor that can be exploited. The 6’10” big man Tirese Samuel is the best offensive rebounder on the team, but Ndefo and Tae Davis also fit in really well at that end.
Pirates also come to the line with brutal efficiency. They’ve made almost half the number of free throw attempts as field goal attempts, and they’re ranked 6th in the nation by KenPom in that ratio. Richmond is the main source of those chances, ranking 52nd individually. If Marquette can spit Richmond out before they do it, things will be fine for them. Ndefo, Tae Davis and Femi Odukale are all north of 80% free throw rate, and at 33 free throw attempts this season, Davis has actually had more charity throws than live score attempts so far. This year.
If you’re thinking “oh yes, avoid fouls, make turnovers, roll to victory”, I don’t blame you, but it won’t be that easy. Seton Hall is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, ranking 20th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metrics. It’s not the best in the Far East, but it’s second only to Connecticut at the moment. They’re a very weird defensive team, though. Looking at the four factors, SHU’s defense is great at the things their offense is bad at, and vice versa. They might be getting a little lucky because teams are only shooting 27% from long range against them, but their two-point defense is very strong and they’re also pretty good at forcing you out of the three-point line. . They’re 60th in the nation in turnover rate, just below their offensive turnover rate, so if you wanted to think about their turnovers at both ends, you could.
They don’t get defensive rebounds and they foul too many times. You can tell how bad shots and turnovers wear them, because they’re objectively bad at rebounds and free throws, but they’re still in the top 25 on the defensive end. If Marquette can solve the puzzle for a clean look – and Seton Hall kinda sucks at letting you hit the open man for an open shot and an assist – they should be able to counter the Pirates defense.
To put it another way: if you can be reasonably effective on offense, you can beat them because they can’t score with anything resembling consistency. They’ve allowed 75+ points per 100 possessions seven times this season…and they’re 1-6 in those games. The win was Memphis’ game, and that win was down to SHU scoring five points in the final 50 seconds, all from Tyrese Samuel, and the final three were at the buzzer. Tyrese Samuel is 2-for-6 from behind the arc this season, so yeah, that was literally half his marks…and he went 2-for-2 against the Tigers.
Marquette’s last 10 games: 7-3, the loss to Providence having shattered six wins in the previous seven games.
Seton Hall’s last 10 games: 5-5, but it’s actually 4-6 if you only count games against Division 1 opponents.
All-Time Series: Marquette leads, 21-13
Current series: Marquette snapped a six-game winning streak at Seton Hall at home last season in the first meeting and then took the series of the season by winning at The Rock 11 days later.
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