We’re just days away from the 2024 NFL Draft, and as is the case with most drafts, the conversation is obsessed with the quarterback position. Three are expected to be taken among the top three picks (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye), which would mark only the fourth time in history that this has happened. In fact, it’s possible that the quarterbacks could be four of the top five picks, if they don’t go off the board consecutively (adding JJ McCarthy), which would be an NFL record.
Although quarterbacks are the kingmakers of the NFL, making this significant investment in the first round is not without risk. Just ask the decision makers of the 2021 NFL Draft. It was another quarterback-dominated year as Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Trey Lance were taken with the first three picks – followed by Justin Fields (No. 11) and Mac Jones (No. 15) – later in the first round. . .
At the time, each of those teams felt like they had discovered a key piece of their rebuild, but a few years later, only one of those players is currently with the organization that drafted him. So while we will almost certainly see QBs go off the board on Thursday night, let’s look back at the 2021 draft and the downfall of most of its quarterbacks to use it as a warning.
Draft position: No. 1 in the general ranking
Drafted team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Current team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence is by far the most successful quarterback in his class, as the former No. 1 overall pick is the only player remaining from the franchise that drafted him. That said, his first three seasons in the league were a bit of a rollercoaster. During his rookie season, he had to carry the burden of having Urban Meyer as head coach, which proved to be a distraction on and off the field.
After hiring Doug Pederson following his rookie campaign, Lawrence bounced back with his best season in the league thus far, earning a 95.2 passer rating in 2022 while being named to the Pro Bowl and taking the Jaguars to the playoffs. There, Lawrence initially faded with four total interceptions against the Chargers in the wild-card round, but Los Angeles blew a 27-point lead as Jacksonville rallied. Last season, Lawrence was injured and the Jaguars struggled down the stretch. The club has lost five of its last six games and is no longer qualified for the playoffs.
So even considering Lawrence the most successful quarterback in his class, he’s still a work in progress with a 20-30 regular season record as a starter. And if you want to eliminate this Urban Meyer rookie year, he’s 17-16.
Draft position: No. 2 in the general ranking
Drafted team: New York Jets
Current team: Denver Broncos
New York’s struggles finding a QB in the NFL Draft continued here with Wilson. Almost instantly, it was clear that the BYU product wasn’t cut out to be an Opening Day starter, as the Jets were 1-5 in his first six starts before suffering an injury that sidelined him on the sidelines for four games, further derailing his development. Wilson finished 3-10 as the Jets’ starter in his rookie season. A mix of injuries and poor play continued to plague Wilson in his second year, and he eventually found himself as the third-string quarterback behind Mike White and Joe Flacco.
At this point, it was more than clear that Wilson was not a viable option for the Jets at that point, forcing the franchise to go into the following offseason and complete a blockbuster trade for Aaron Rodgers. Wilson was expected to develop behind Rodgers for as long as the Packers quarterback remained with the franchise, but Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles just four games into his tenure with the Jets, which brought Wilson back into the fold as the starter . Wilson went 5-7 as a starter last season and was inactive for most of the second half of the year.
This offseason, the Jets allowed Wilson to seek a trade. The club has since sent him (with a seventh round pick in 2024) to the Denver Broncos. in exchange for a sixth-round pick in 2024. The Jets also got a $5.5 million partial pay cut.
Draft position: No. 3 in the general ranking
Drafted team: San Francisco 49ers
Current team: Dallas Cowboys
Lance is perhaps the biggest failure of the group while also being the biggest mystery. The San Francisco 49ers traded a monumental gain to move up to No. 3 for the opportunity to select Lance and it blew up in their face, while the Miami Dolphins were able to take that gain and turn it into Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek . Hill and Bradley Chubb. Lance was seen as an upgrade over the oft-injured Jimmy Garoppolo because he would give Kyle Shanahan a dynamic dual-threat quarterback. He made spot appearances as a rookie, but a knee injury kept the Niners from looking at him any longer, as the starter along with Garoppolo was also sidelined due to injury.
Early in 2022, Lance was named the starter against Garoppolo, but suffered a season-ending ankle injury against the Seahawks in Week 2. The combination of Lance and Garoppolo both suffering injuries this season has paved the way for Brock Purdy to become the starter in the future. Prior to last season, Lance was listed as a quarterback behind Purdy and Darnold before being traded to the Cowboys in late August.
Among the teams moving on from their 2021 first-round quarterbacks, the 49ers did the best they could for themselves, all things considered. They traded Lance for a fourth-round pick (the highest return of any QB) and got $6.3 million in salary cap relief (the highest).
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Draft position: No. 11 in the general ranking
Drafted team: Chicago Bear
Current team: Pittsburgh Steelers
If we were to rank quarterbacks by success, Fields would land second behind Lawrence in this first-round class. Although he is raw, Fields has shown some flashes of elite playmaking, particularly with his rushing ability. That said, his development as a passer didn’t leave much to be desired. In his very first start (Week 3 against Cleveland), Fields completed only six of his 20 pass attempts. Although he improved those passing totals as the season progressed, it was an area of needed improvement in year two, and he never seemed to reach the heights the Bears leadership needed him to. In his second season in the league, Fields completed 60.4% of his passes and totaled 1,143 rushing yards, but the Bears were 3-12 in his 15 starts.
Despite having the No. 1 overall pick a year ago, the club decided to stick with Fields instead of taking Bryce Young (Panthers’ No. 1 overall pick) or CJ Stroud ( No. 2 overall pick for the Texans), trading the selection for Caroline. Although there was some improvement, Field largely plateaued in his third season and the Bears were once again faced with the No. 1 overall pick (via the Panthers). That puts them on the verge of taking USC’s Caleb Williams with this selection. The club has since traded Fields to the Steelers in exchange for a sixth-round pick.
Draft position: No. 15 in the general ranking
Drafted team: New England Patriots
Current team: Jacksonville Jaguars
For a minute, it looked like New England was going to land on its feet in the post-Tom Brady era with Jones at the helm. After a lackluster season with Cam Newton, the Patriots drafted Jones with the 15th pick. He beat out Newton throughout training camp to get the job in Week 1 and went 10-7 as a starter in the regular season, which sent the team to the playoffs. That year, Jones completed 67.6% of his passes, was a Pro Bowl alternate, and finished second for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Overall, it seemed like the arrow was pointing up.
Then, in Jones’ second season in 2022, the Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to a head coaching opportunity with the Raiders. Bill Belichick then installed Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to run the offense in what is still considered one of the most puzzling decisions of the legendary coach’s tenure. Neither had a substantial offensive coaching background, which led the unit to struggle and Jones’ development to be derailed. An ankle injury then opened the door for then-rookie Bailey Zappe, and the team played slightly better with him under center. During a “Monday Night Football” game against Chicago, Jone was benched for Zappe, sending him further into a spiral.
Last year, the team hired Bill O’Brien to run the offense as OC, but it seemed like Jones was already broken at that point. He started the year as QB1 but was benched several times during the year in place of Zappe before being sent to the bench for the remainder of the season after Week 12.
This offseason, Jones was traded to his hometown Jaguars in exchange for a sixth-round draft pick.