The 9-3 Dallas Cowboys have been a wrecking ball and arguably the most dominant team in the NFL this season. Wins and losses are the only metric that matters in the NFL when it comes to playoff position, but if there was a committee that considered “style points” to decide playoff position, as is the case in college football, the Cowboys would be seated. pretty one.
Their +127 point differential leads the NFL, ranks as Dallas’ best in 12 games since 2007 when they won the NFC’s first seed, and it’s the first time the Cowboys have led the league in points differential through Week 13 since 1994. The 1994 season was Barry Switzer’s first as Cowboys head coach after Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson and Jerry Jones had a tense split. That team went 12-4 before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers, led by Hall of Famers Steve Young, Jerry Rice, Deion Sanders and Bryant Young. The following season, Dallas went 12-4 again before winning its third and final Super Bowl title of the 1990s, the last time the Cowboys qualified for the NFC Championship Game.
Best points differential in 2022
* First time leading the NFL in points differential through Week 13 since 1994 (+156)
The Cowboys’ defense has been consistent all year, ranking third in the NFL in allowing just 17.2 points per game. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s unit has given up 20 or more points in just four games this year, tied for third in the NFL, thanks to linebacker Micah Parsons making a Defensive Player of the Year push and improved cornerback Trevon Diggs.
However, the Cowboys offense has now caught up with the defense, going from 23rd in offense in the first six weeks of the season, 18.3 points per game, to now also third in offense in scoring, with 27, 8 points per game. , tied with the Buffalo Bills’ season production. The cause of their scoring boost: The return of quarterback Dak Prescott from his thumb injury in Week 7. Dallas is averaging a league-best 37.2 points per game with him back on the field since Week 7. The Cowboys’ scoring rebound was downright historic with their 199 points over the last five games, since Prescott’s second game on the field, ranking as the most in five games in the history of the team.
Cowboys attack since Prescott returned in Week 7
GPP |
37.2 |
1st |
YPG total |
411.0 |
2nd |
Succeed YPG |
238.0 |
8th |
YPG Rush |
173.0 |
2nd |
Bottom 3rd percent |
56.6% |
1st |
Red Zone TD Percentage |
87.0% |
2nd |
But where exactly do they fit into the current playoff picture? And how difficult is their remaining schedule? What could they improve on as they prepare to make another playoff run? And where do we think they will end up? Below, find everything you need to know about the Cowboys’ playoff prospects, including a prediction for their arrival in 2022:
Current playoff position
After 12 games and 13 weeks, the Cowboys (9-3) are seeded fifth in the NFC, the top wild card team, about three quarters into the 2022 season. Dallas’ 9-3 record remains the same. than that of two of the AFC’s best teams, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, and there are only two divisions of football in which the Cowboys would not be alone in possession of first place or at tied for first place: NFC North, led by the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings, a team the Cowboys beat 40-3 in Week 11, and NFC East, their division which includes the 11 Philadelphia Eagles -1, the team with the best record in the NFL.
No team has won the NFC East in consecutive seasons since the Eagles did from 2001 to 2004, and the Cowboys were NFC East champions last season. There’s still a path to catch the Eagles as both teams play once more, but the path must include Philadelphia losing once again outside of their game at AT&T Stadium on Christmas Eve. That means that loss should come in one of the Eagles’ two games against the New York Giants, on the road against the Chicago Bears or at home against the New Orleans Saints.
Given Philadelphia’s only loss was at home to the Washington Commanders, a team that just tied with the Giants in Week 13, it’s the Cowboys’ best hope of tripping the Eagles.
For Dallas, it’s simple: just keep winning, and there’s a chance the No. 1 seed is theirs. If the Cowboys can’t pass the Eagles in the standings, they’ll hit the road at Super Wild Card Weekend and likely face Tom Brady and the current NFC South leaders Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Playing Brady on the road in the playoffs is definitely a path the Silver and Blue would like to avoid.
Remaining schedule
The Cowboys have five games left in the 2022 regular season, and their opponents have a combined winning percentage of .508, giving them the 18th toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, an average difficulty level according to Tankathon.
14 |
against Texas |
1-10-1 |
15 |
at Jaguar |
4-8 |
16 |
against the eagles |
11-1 |
17 |
among the titans |
7-5 |
18 |
among the commanders |
7-5-1 |
After crushing the Indianapolis Colts 54-19 last week, Dallas shouldn’t have much trouble with the Texans and Jaguars, the two teams below the Colts in the AFC South standings. Week 16 is the big one, the rematch against the Eagles in Dallas, but this time the Cowboys have Prescott at quarterback instead of replacement Cooper Rush.
However, Rush was off the court on defense as Dallas committed a season-high six defensive penalties and missed eight tackles, tied for their fourth most in a game this season, in the 26-17 loss on the road to Philadelphia. This loss left Quinn and Parsons feeling “pissed off”. Safe to say they’re probably counting down the days until Christmas Eve.
“We have very high standards for how we want to play, and when we don’t live up to them, we get pissed off about it,” Quinn said on Monday after the Philadelphia loss. “We want this blistering performance to start to come to an end: from the first quarter to the fourth for as long as it takes us. That’s what I would like to make sure we focus on. … When we don’t meet them, that made you crazy. We are ready to go for the next one, but that’s how we felt coming out.
“I just have to hone my craft and get better this week,” Parsons said Thursday after the Eagles lost. “I’ve personally made some adjustments and analyzed with the coaches, sitting down with them to see what I can do better and improve my game. This week I’m looking to smother everything. … [The Eagles] didn’t try to sue me…they’re throwing an RPO offense, it’s all play option. You must be worried [Jalen] It hurts, it’s a problem. When you have problems, you have to focus on them, so in my eyes, I did my job. You can’t control trying to do everything on the pitch, it only leads to frustration and miscommunication. Just do your job there. It was a big game last week and sometimes you can find yourself trying to make the big play which can lock you out. We just have to clean it up and get back to the details.”
After that pivotal showdown, Dallas has the AFC South leaders Tennessee Titans coming off a 35-10 loss to the Eagles and firing general manager Jon Robinson. Running back Derrick Henry still poses a threat, but since Week 11 the Cowboys have allowed 89.7 rushing yards per game, eighth-fewest in the league in that span, while facing some of the best rushers in the game. NFL — Minnesota Vikings running back Dalvin Cook, New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley and Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor.
The final game on the Cowboys’ regular-season roster is a rematch with the Commanders, a team that Dallas beat 25-10 in a battle between now backup quarterbacks Carson Wentz vs. Cooper Rush. The Cowboys may not be able to make this final regular season game as Washington could very well stay alive in the race for the last NFC wildcard.
Improvement areas
Prescott’s decision-making: Prescott’s return to the lineup breathed new life into the Cowboys offense, as detailed above. His 13 passing touchdowns are tied for second most in the NFL since coming back behind Eagles quarterback and NFL MVP leader Jalen Hurts, 14. The problem: Prescott’s six interceptions are tied for second in the NFL since coming back behind only the sevens of Josh Allen and Davis Mills. Four of those interceptions came in two games: the 31-28 overtime loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 10 and the 28-20 win over the New York Giants in Week 12 at Thanksgiving.
Prescott by the numbers since Week 7 return
Percentage complete |
71.0% |
3rd |
Passing Yards/Attempts |
7.8 |
10th |
TD pass |
13 |
T-2e |
INT |
6 |
T-26e |
Passer Ranking |
103.8 |
6th |
Against the Packers, the two were picked by Green Bay safety Rudy Ford after beating tight end Dalton Schultz and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb in football, a sign that Prescott isn’t on the same page. with his pass catchers. The first of his two interceptions against the Giants at Thanksgiving was a case of locking on receiver Michael Gallup early in the game and not getting the ball to him fast enough as Giants safety Rodarius Williams went into hiding. The second could be attributed to Prescott being overambitious trying to squeeze a ball to Lamb in tight coverage. His shot was deflected and intercepted by another Giants safety, Julian Love.
Conclusion: If Prescott takes better care of the football, the Cowboys won’t have to worry about anything else in the future.
Prediction
The only losses the Cowboys have suffered this year have been to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, Jalen Hurts’ Eagles and Aaron Rodgers’ Packers – that’s nothing to be ashamed of. With their running game buzzing as Tony Pollard, who leads the NFL with 6.4 yards per touch this season (min. 150 touches), continued to receive more carries and Parsons continues to rack up sacks for the rush the NFL’s top pass (Dallas leads the NFL with 48 sacks and a 42.5% rushing percentage), there’s no reason the Cowboys can’t win each of their last five games.
It’s hard not to see Dallas going 4-1 or 5-0 to close out the year, putting them up to 13-4 or 14-3 just on the cusp of the NFC’s top seed. Provided there are no weird endgame shenanigans regarding clock management, the Cowboys could pull off their best shot in years to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1995, given the watered down NFC competition of 2022.