En route to victory in the AFC South, CJ Stroud was one of nine quarterbacks to eclipse 4,000 passing yards, he did so with the third-best yards per attempt average of 8.2 and has threw 23 interceptions for just five picks. Quite easily, he’s coming off one of the best rookie quarterback seasons we’ve ever seen.
Where does his rookie season rank among the best recent rookie quarterback campaigns?
We’ll go back to 2010 for a stylistic similarity in how the quarterback position is now played. And I only ranked the top 8 all-around rookie quarterback seasons for a reason. These are really the only ones worth ranking. Let’s go. (NOTE: This is a November update and I had to change Robert Griffin III and Baker Mayfield. I was wrong to begin with.)
Murray won Rookie of the Year in 2019, but his first year in the NFL doesn’t quite compare to the rest of this list. His big throw rate of 4.0% was very respectable, as was his turnover-worthy play rate of 2.7%. His yards per attempt average of 6.9, not so much. While good for the vast majority of rookies, it’s just not amazing here, and his aDOT was only 7.6 in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense which also featured a plethora of screens and quick throws underneath. Murray ran for 544 yards at a clip of 5.8 yards per carry and looked like Mario on most of those carries.
Not that it’s Prescott’s fault, but he landed in the most comfortable environment of any quarterback on this list. In 2016, the Cowboys had an elite offensive line and a dynamic rookie powerhouse in Ezekiel Elliott. On the outside, Prescott had Dez Bryant, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten at his disposal. Prescott didn’t just follow in his teammates’ footsteps. He calmly orchestrated the offense throughout his rookie campaign with 11 of his 16 games having a quarterback rating above 100.
In young Kyle Shanahan’s offense, with Matt LaFleur as quarterbacks coach and Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel also on the offensive staff, RG3 was an instant rockstar in DC. Now, he didn’t have three All-Pro receivers at his disposal, but the Washington offensive line was strong and could rely on a stellar running game led by fellow rookie Alfred Morris.
RG3 is a bit lower on this list because of what is now known about Shanahan’s offensive brilliance and his ability to maximize a quarterback’s efficiency. His big throw rate of 3.7% and turnover-worthy play rates of 2.3% were good, not great, and there wasn’t a single game during his season rookie in which Griffin III attempted 40 passes. He was really running a ball control attack. And he exploited it in a remarkable way. I also can’t forget his 843 rushing yards with nine rushing scores. One of the flashiest and most fun rookie quarterback seasons in league history.
5. CJ Stroud, 2023
Stroud is the vital force behind the Texans, moving up from the second overall pick in the AFC South. He played with great confidence as a pitcher all year, was ultra aggressive and made big plays in critical moments time and time again for Houston in the regular season. His 4.3% BTT rate was good, not surprising, and his 2.9% TWP rate indicated he probably should have had a little more than five interceptions and eight fumbles. To put that last stat into perspective: Patrick Mahomes had the same TWP percentage and finished with 14 interceptions and fumbled five times.
Despite luck being on his side, Stroud’s 9.4 aDOT ranked fourth among qualifiers and he orchestrated three game-winning drives. After returning from an injury that occurred in his worst outing as a rookie against the Jets, Stroud was flashed in two divisional games against the Titans and Colts to help win the division. In those contests, he completed 75.8% of his throws at 8.2 yards per attempt with three touchdowns, no interceptions and three BTTs with no TWP. He exploited Bobby Slowik’s offense beautifully all season long. Oh, and he lost fellow rookie Tank Dell at receiver in Week 13.
Mayfield looked like the interesting No. 1 pick as a rookie in Cleveland. Throwing to Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway and Rashard Higgins, Mayfield put the Browns offense on his back in 2018. His 9.6 aDOT yards prove he wasn’t a conservative passer at all. Further evidence of this lies in his solid 7.7% pitch rate. His 3.1% play rate was solid if unspectacular, and he provided virtually nothing on the court. Mayfield’s 74.0% adjusted completion rate was impressive for most rookies, but not for those on this list. Overall, Mayfield’s play at Oklahoma transitioned smoothly to Cleveland in 2018.
Newton burst onto the scene in an unprecedented way, with a 422-yard aerial display in his NFL debut after being the Panthers’ polarizing first-round pick. He maintained his ultra-aggressive ways that season, with a hefty 10.0 aDOT and a significant 8.2% pitch rate. He wasn’t incredibly accurate – the propensity for long balls needs to be taken into account here – and had a turnover-worthy play rate of 4.4%. Newton ran the football like the league had never seen at quarterback, given his size, athleticism and power combination. He totaled 706 rushing yards with 14 rushing scores. Amazing.
Herbert threw 596 passes as a rookie en route to setting the rookie touchdown pass record. His big throw rate was an impressive 4.9%, for a turnover-worthy play rate of just 2.3%. And it’s not like Herbert is operating behind a Fort Knox offensive line. He was pressured on 36.6 percent of his dropbacks that year (11th highest rate in football) and, remarkably, led all quarterbacks with a 99.4 pressure rating.
Mainly thanks to his bazooka arm and aggressive streak as a pitcher, Herbert’s rookie season was absolutely dazzling in Los Angeles.
Wilson’s rookie season is overlooked because of the all-time strength of Seattle’s defense. Yes, Wilson was fortunate to land in Seattle when the Legion of Boom was at its peak, but his individual performance in year one represents the benchmark for recent rookie quarterback campaigns.
His average target depth was 10.3 yards. His BTT was a gargantuan 7.1% while he was charged with a turnover-worthy play on just 1.7% of his drop backs in 2012. He rushed for nearly 500 yards and despite all his improvisational magic, he was sacked on less than 8.0% of his drop. back. Wilson passed the ball wonderfully to a then-relatively unproven group of receivers led by Sidney Rice, Golden Tate and second-year pro Doug Baldwin. It’s easy to focus on the impact that Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas had on the Seahawks in 2012. But Wilson’s rookie season was truly special.