No NFL team has won the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004. On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have the chance to accomplish that feat in the Super Bowl 58. The Chiefs will meet the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, where Kansas City will play in its fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. San Francisco is in the Super Bowl for the first time since losing to Kansas City in Super Bowl LIV and is seeking a sixth Super Bowl title in franchise history.
Kickoff will be at 6:30 p.m. ET in Las Vegas on CBS and Paramount+. San Francisco is a two-point favorite, while the over/under, or the total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47.5 in the latest Chiefs vs. 49ers odds. Before locking in any 49ers vs. Chiefs picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, costs well over $7,000 for $100 players among the NFL’s highest-rated picks since its inception. The model enters the 2024 NFL Super Bowl with an incredible 184-129 streak on top-rated NFL picks dating back to the 2017 season. He is also on a 38-21 record among top-rated picks rated since Week 7 of last season and has landed seven straight top-rated picks heading into the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model has ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the last six years on straight NFL picks and has beaten more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who followed him is at the top.
Now the model has set its sights on Niners vs. Chiefs in Super Bowl 58. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for the Chiefs vs. Niners:
- Chiefs breakdown vs. 49ers: 49ers -2
- Chiefs vs. 49ers over/under: 47.5 points
- Chiefs money line against the 49ers: 49ers -127, Chiefs +107
- SF: 49ers are 9-10 ATS this season
- KC: Chiefs are 12-7-1 ATS this season
- Chiefs vs. 49ers picks: See the picks at SportsLine
- Streaming Chiefs vs. 49ers: Paramount+ (seven-day free trial)
Why the 49ers can cover
The 49ers have one of the best offensive linemen of all time in Trent Williams. He was selected to the Pro Bowl 11 times, tied for the most players at the position. He hasn’t allowed a single sack in 492 pass blocks this season and the 49ers are averaging 5.2 yards per carry when running behind him and down the left side this season. With Williams up front, Christian McCaffrey was even more effective, and the 49ers finished in the top four in the NFL in rushing yards (140.5 per game), yards per carry (4.8) and rushing touchdowns (27) during the regular season.
McCaffrey was arguably the most powerful player during the regular season, leading the league in yards from scrimmage (2,023), yards per carry (5.4) and total touchdowns (21). He has also rushed for over 250 more yards (1,459) than any player in the league and is the first player since 2006 to accumulate at least 25 touchdowns, including the playoffs. During San Francisco’s playoff run, he averaged 130.0 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns per game and reached the end zone in five straight playoff games. Find out which team to choose here.
Why the Chiefs can cover
While the 49ers rank highly on tight end defense this season, the connection between Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce looms large in this matchup. Mahomes and Kelce bring elite individual numbers to Super Bowl LVIII, and the duo has combined for 17 touchdowns in the postseason, the most by a QB pass-catching duo in history. Mahomes completed 80.9 percent of Kelce’s career playoff passes, posting a passer rating of 139.2 with just one interception when focusing on his favorite target. This is the No. 1 completion rate and passer rating among 30 QB receiver duos with at least 50 career postseason attempts, and Mahomes is 23-28 for 14 touchdowns when targets Kelce in the red zone.
Additionally, Mahomes is 20-24 for 255 yards and a touchdown when throwing to Kelce in three career games against San Francisco, which includes the Super Bowl win over the 49ers four years ago. Mahomes is the only quarterback with a minimum of 10 starts in playoff history to improve his completion rate, touchdown rate, interception rate, rushing efficiency and regular season winning percentage to the NFL playoffs. The Chiefs are 14-3 with Mahomes in the playoff lineup, and he has 39 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions. Find out which team to choose here.
How to make picks between the Chiefs and 49ers
SportsLine’s model is leaning under the total, calling for a combined 45 points. The model also indicates that one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model choices on SportsLine.
So who wins the 49ers against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 58, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which 49ers vs. Chiefs side to pick in the 2024 Super Bowl, all from the Advanced Model that costs well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.