Now that there are only four teams left in the Champions League, the odds have changed dramatically. The two favorites going into the final round were Manchester City and Arsenal, and both are now eliminated.
When looking at the Champions League odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, who should we bet on to be the winner?
Here’s a look at the odds for the remaining four teams and their odds:
real Madrid | +130 |
PSG | +240 |
Bayern Munich | +260 |
Dortmund | +800 |
Champions League Winner Odds
Real Madrid (+130)
After beating reigning champion and favorite Manchester City on penalties, Real Madrid are now favorites themselves.
They certainly have the pedigree of a team capable of winning it. Three players on their squad have won the Champions League five times (Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Dani Carvajal). Their manager, Carlo Ancelotti, won it four times, a record among all managers.
Although not as good as some teams from the 2010s, this Real Madrid team is no joke. They lead La Liga by eight points. In terms of underlying numbers, Madrid has the ninth best expected goal differential (xG) per 90 minutes among Europe’s big five leagues, according to FBRef.
The semi-finals will be difficult for them – perhaps even more so than the final. They will face Bayern Munich, a team that could be considered the second best team remaining.
Difficult to bet against Real Madrid, the final boss of this competition. That +130 number is pretty short, but they are deservedly the favorites.
Paris Saint-Germain (+240)
Chasing their elusive first Champions League trophy, PSG staged a comeback to beat Barcelona in the quarter-finals. Barca led 4-2 on aggregate until a red card changed the entire match. After the expulsion of a Barça man, the Parisians scored three goals and qualified for the next round.
Given that PSG have won Ligue 1 in 12 of the last 14 seasons, the Champions League will be their priority, especially since Kylian Mbappe will likely leave the club after this season.
PSG has the best xG differential in France and the 10th among the five major European championships. They may no longer have Neymar and Lionel Messi, but they have a good core of young players as well as greater balance in their squad.
Having the advantage of avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern Munich in this round, PSG are clear favorites to reach the final. They are -230 to overtake Dortmund, so it makes perfect sense to bet on them to win the entire competition at +240.
Bayern Munich (+260)
After ending their incredible 11-year Bundesliga title run, Bayern Munich now only have the Champions League to chase.
It’s been a strange season for Bayern. They experienced some unusual slip-ups in the league and had to face a fantastic Bayer Leverkusen side who didn’t lose a game in any competition.
Bayern’s xG numbers are still elite. They average 1.74 xG more than their opponents per 90 minutes. The second best team in Europe only has an average of 1.35.
They won against Arsenal and will now have a tough test against Real Madrid. Manager Thomas Tuchel has won this competition before, but he can’t match Madrid’s history. He has also already confirmed that he will be leaving at the end of this season, and one has to wonder how that will affect things for Bayern Munich.
In the semi-final against Real Madrid, Bayern have +144 outsiders to qualify. Considering that and the fact that they will have to win the UCL final against a team that is more than capable of beating them – whether it’s PSG or Dortmund – the odds of +260 aren’t long enough for me. try to bet on Bayern. .
Borussia Dortmund (+800)
Perhaps the wild card of the remaining final four, Dortmund reached the semi-finals for the first time since making it all the way to the final in 2013.
Dortmund won a topsy-turvy affair against Atletico Madrid in the previous round to get here. They are currently only fifth in the Bundesliga. Their xG differential is also only the fifth best in Germany.
Dortmund is at least capable of competing with these teams. They were in the same group as PSG this fall and managed to get a draw in one of the matches against Mbappe and company. They also beat Bayern Munich just three weeks ago, 2-0.
It’s clear that Dortmund are the worst team left, but in a cup competition, +800 is quite a long number and could be an intriguing bet. Their odds of reaching the final are only +180, compared to Bayern’s +144, but Bayern has a much better chance of winning the tournament.
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The above author is an employee of FanDuel and is not eligible to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the opinions of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice will not guarantee a positive outcome. You must use your best judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.