- Apple’s stock slipped just over 1% on Friday.
- Apple’s iPhone 14 data will be closely watched.
- Early reports from investment banks look promising for early shipments.
Apple (AAPL) the stock continues to fall as it returns from highs after the high inflation seen earlier this month. This drove all valuations down, and Apple naturally followed suit. The stock has done well this year, being flat year-to-date while most other stocks have suffered, especially in the mega tech space.
Apple stock market news
iPhone 14 is the big catalyst and sets up the next quarter for Apple. The key question is how much the reported global slowdown will affect iPhone 14 sales. iPhones are expensive and considered luxury items. This segment typically suffers from a consumer slump as spending is curtailed.
However, some caveats apply here. The Apple ecosystem is very expensive and inelastic with a set of loyal consumers who regularly upgrade to the latest model. The average age is younger and therefore less susceptible to other financial problems and also has a high disposable income. Morgan Stanley stressed in a note to clients last week that they see Apple and the iPhone 14 as somewhat immune to macroeconomic downturns. The investment bank says the iPhone is more of a “commodity” product.
This is where Morgan Stanley and I diverge. Yes, there is a clasp element. A mobile phone is now considered an essential product for the vast majority of the population. We just can’t leave the house without it. However, everyone has a price, and while the Apple ecosystem entails some loyalty, that doesn’t stop consumers from upgrading to cheaper older models or simply delaying any upgrades.
However, I think Apple should still outperform for the rest of the year given the timing. iPhone orders should see a boost over Christmas before the real damage is done in 2023. I’m sticking with my $100 12-month price target, which you can read about here in our deep-dive series .
Apple Stock Deep Dive: $100 AAPL Price Target on 2023 Revenue Decline
Apple Stock Forecast
A rebound seems imminent in the short term at least. We already have a bullish divergence from Friday’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. A new low on Friday in this downtrend did not see a new low on the RSI. Additionally, we have a hammer candlestick on Friday, another bullish pattern. This is a candle with a long wick but a close much higher than the intraday low. This signifies a major intraday bounce and is a bullish sign, at least in the short term. The first target is a modest $153, the 50% retracement of the summer rally. $164 is the most recent peak, which would represent a significant move and reverse the uptrend again.
AAPL 1-Day Chart
- Apple’s stock slipped just over 1% on Friday.
- Apple’s iPhone 14 data will be closely watched.
- Early reports from investment banks look promising for early shipments.
Apple (AAPL) the stock continues to fall as it returns from highs after the high inflation seen earlier this month. This drove all valuations down, and Apple naturally followed suit. The stock has done well this year, being flat year-to-date while most other stocks have suffered, especially in the mega tech space.
Apple stock market news
iPhone 14 is the big catalyst and sets up the next quarter for Apple. The key question is how much the reported global slowdown will affect iPhone 14 sales. iPhones are expensive and considered luxury items. This segment typically suffers from a consumer slump as spending is curtailed.
However, some caveats apply here. The Apple ecosystem is very expensive and inelastic with a set of loyal consumers who regularly upgrade to the latest model. The average age is younger and therefore less susceptible to other financial problems and also has a high disposable income. Morgan Stanley stressed in a note to clients last week that they see Apple and the iPhone 14 as somewhat immune to macroeconomic downturns. The investment bank says the iPhone is more of a “commodity” product.
This is where Morgan Stanley and I diverge. Yes, there is a clasp element. A mobile phone is now considered an essential product for the vast majority of the population. We just can’t leave the house without it. However, everyone has a price, and while the Apple ecosystem entails some loyalty, that doesn’t stop consumers from upgrading to cheaper older models or simply delaying any upgrades.
However, I think Apple should still outperform for the rest of the year given the timing. iPhone orders should see a boost over Christmas before the real damage is done in 2023. I’m sticking with my $100 12-month price target, which you can read about here in our deep-dive series .
Apple Stock Deep Dive: $100 AAPL Price Target on 2023 Revenue Decline
Apple Stock Forecast
A rebound seems imminent in the short term at least. We already have a bullish divergence from Friday’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) and price action. A new low on Friday in this downtrend did not see a new low on the RSI. Additionally, we have a hammer candlestick on Friday, another bullish pattern. This is a candle with a long wick but a close much higher than the intraday low. This signifies a major intraday bounce and is a bullish sign, at least in the short term. The first target is a modest $153, the 50% retracement of the summer rally. $164 is the most recent peak, which would represent a significant move and reverse the uptrend again.
AAPL 1-Day Chart