It took 13 weeks, but it finally happened: for the first time this season, a team was officially eliminated from the playoffs. In fact, there were two teams that were eliminated and in news that probably won’t surprise anyone, one of those teams was the Houston Texans (the other team to be eliminated was the Bears).
With the Texans and Bears out, that means there are 30 teams left alive, which brings us to this week’s playoff projections. The projections are based on data from numbers expert Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer, then simulated the rest of the NFL season, and using those numbers, we were able to determine the playoff odds for the remaining 30 teams. We also projected the 14-team playoff field.
With that in mind, let’s move on to this week’s playoff projections. In fact, before doing that, here is a fake draft that Texans and Bears fans might want to read. Since your teams were knocked out of the playoffs, a dummy draft will likely be a lot more exciting to read than these projections.
As for everyone else, let’s move on to the projections.
To note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the rest of the regular season will go. If you want to see the current playoff standings, be sure to click here. For a breakdown of the current playoff image, be sure to click here.
AFC playoff projection
Here is a list of playoff chances for all other AFC teams (their percentage chances of advancing to the playoffs are listed next to them in parentheses): Patriots (38.8%), Chargers (34.8%), Raiders (5.4%), Browns (5.2%), Steelers (4.4%), Jaguars (3.9%), Colts ( 0.9%), Broncos (0.0%), Texans (Eliminated).
NFC playoff projection
Here is a list of playoff odds for all other NFC teams (their percentage odds of advancing to the playoffs are listed next to them in parentheses): Commanders (53.8%), Panthers (5.2%), Falcons (3.3%), Lions (2.9%), Packers (2.2%), Saints (0.7%), Cardinals ( 0.2%), Rams (0.0%), Bears (Eliminated).
To note: The Broncos and Rams weren’t knocked out of the playoffs, but they have a 0% chance of getting there because the computer hates them. In fact, the computer neither likes nor hates, it has no feelings, it just doesn’t think there is a mathematical chance for either of these teams to succeed.
Generic round projection
AFC
(7) Rolls to (2) Leaders
(6) Dolphins to (3) Crows
(5) Bengals vs. (4) Titans
Goodbye: Invoices
NFC
(7) Giants to (2) Vikings
(6) Seahawks to (3) 49ers
(5) Cowboys to (4) Buccaneers
Goodbye: Eagles