We won’t know right away, but despite the hype leading up to prospects being selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, a small group of selections will be made far too soon. This happens in every draft class.
To alert you to who these leads are, I generate another list of “Buyer Beware” leads.
While I’m not implying that these prospects are doomed to fail, these are just the riskiest propositions that could still land somewhere in the first round or very early on Day 2. In my opinion, they will have a hard time landing. live up to it. to their project positions. These are my wary buyer prospects in the 2024 class.
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Why: Lack of notable traits
Nix can be classified as an “incomplete” rating, for two reasons. Oregon’s system was incredibly slick — but incredibly efficient — and it threw an incredible amount to wide-open Duck receivers and tight ends over the last two years in Eugene.
As for the nearly 78% completion percentage, Nix isn’t as accurate as that record rate indicates. Does he have a ball placement problem? No, but it’s not super precise. There is an element of athleticism to his game. No question. Will he be a major threat in the NFL? I can’t imagine it.
Now, can Nix be a quality play manager who operates within a solid structure? Of course. Will I trust him to make tough throws at the intermediate level or down the field in key moments? No, I haven’t seen that from him routinely over the last two seasons at Oregon. And me need that confidence of a first-round quarterback. This is an absolute must. It is for this reason and, by far, that Nix does not have any exceptional characteristics, that I place him in this team.
Marshawn Kneeland, EDGE, West Michigan
Why: Limited arsenal of passing moves, high pad level, lack of collegiate production
There is a future reality in which Kneeland will become one of the best edge rushers in the class, as he is 6-foot-3, nearly 270 pounds, with arms over 34 inches, vertical of 35.5 inches and a three-cone time of 7.02. his CV project. In short, objectively, the size and athleticism boxes are checked.
Despite the ultra stocky frame, which typically produces significant power, this is not the case for Kneeland as his rushes are high. The pad level must go down to the next level to have any semblance of bull run ability, the fundamental run for the vast majority of NFL defensive linemen. Although he plays “half man” well, meaning he understands how to work one side of the blocker he faces, Kneeland simply wasn’t very productive in the MAC. It is a problem. He only generated pressure on 11.6% of pass rushing opportunities. How did it happen ? Behind the surprisingly power-deficient rushes that appear more often than expected, Kneeland’s handiwork is average at best. Pass-rush schemes are disorganized or simply absent.
There is a buzz. Kneeland could be an early second-round pick. This would be too risky a proposition in my opinion, although I will say that this Edge Rusher class is severely lacking in “depth” on Day 2.
Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Why: Separation issues, inadequate in contested catch scenarios, lack of speed
Yes, Coleman had the fastest MPH in the gauntlet drill among receivers at the combine. Puka Nacua also a year ago. While fascinating given each receiver’s slower 40-yard dash times, we can’t forget that some – see: a lot? — Receiver prospects might not perform at 100% during the glove drill at the combine.
And while Coleman doesn’t look slow at 4.61 on film, he’s far from being in burner territory. As a divider at every level, Michigan State has turned into a fight for Florida State products. Man coverage, zone – didn’t matter. Then there’s his game in traffic, where he’s expected to thrive at over 6-foot-3 and 213 pounds. In 2023, he made the catch in 10 of his 33 contested catch scenarios. Not ideal. Far from.
There are instances where Coleman’s physicality shines on film, near the limit, after the catch on occasion, etc. It is not undetectable. But I like him a lot less than I did in the first round or at the start of the second day of the draft.
Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas
Why: Route running ability, minimal yards after the catch, average athleticism
Sanders was a monster recruit for the Longhorns — 247 Sports’ No. 1 “athlete” in the 2021 high school class. As a reasonably productive tight end at Texas, Sanders showed poise and gentleness enviable for the position. But did he display the impressive suddenness or pure speed to consistently get open and outrun linebackers and certain safeties at the next level? Then, at the combine, what was shown on film was confirmed. At just under 6-foot-4 and 245 pounds, Sanders ran 4.69 — the third slowest among tight ends who ran at the combine. Beyond that, his 30-inch vertical he had at Texas Pro Day ranks in the 17th percentile at the position. His long jump of 9 feet 6 inches, the 43rd percentile.
It’s not that Sanders is totally stiff without any athletic gifts. It’s that versus the hype and where he was ultimately picked – probably somewhere in the middle of the second round, he’s not an odd specimen.
Additionally, despite the fluidity of the ball in his hands, Sanders was not a major YAC accumulator with the Longhorns, and head coach Steve Sarkisian often tried to get him the ball in space. Sure, when he had a landing strip, he ate up extra yards, but he made defenders miss or drag them down the field. He has forced just 11 missed tackles on 99 career collegiate catches, a relatively low rate (11.1%) for the position.
I don’t hate Sanders, but in what is admittedly a tight end class after a spectacular 2023 class, I would be headed in other directions as the second tight end on the board after the obvious #1 pick, Brock Bowers from Georgia. .