The stage for the College Football Playoff national championship is set, as Michigan and Washington face off Monday for a chance to become the ultimate champion in a four-team format. Each team has a potential quarterback considered one of the best in college football and a potential first-round selection.
Here’s how Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan’s JJ McCarthy got to this point, along with their strengths, weaknesses and draft prospects:
Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Penix is in his second season with the Washington program. A Tampa native, Penix began his career in Bloomington with Indiana in 2018. Although he showed promise during his four years on campus, his unfortunate injury history will always leave Hoosiers fans wondering what which could have happened. Each of his first four seasons ended prematurely due to leg injuries.
Penix opted to transfer before the 2022 season, and his 2019 Indiana offensive coordinator, Kalen DeBoer, found himself looking for a quarterback in his first season as head coach of the Pac- 12. Fortunately, the quarterback’s injury history hasn’t followed him to the Pacific Northwest. Penix threw for over 4,600 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of his two seasons with the Huskies – the most recent earning him recognition as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
In the College Football Playoff Semifinal, he threw for 430 yards, which is the fourth-highest total in College Football Playoff history, and two touchdowns.
Penix will be making his second career start against the Wolverines. At Indiana in 2020, he led the Hoosiers to a 38-21 victory. In that context, he threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns.
The senior has shown arm strength capable of pushing the ball downfield all season. He consistently throws with as much touch and accuracy down the field as any 2024 NFL Draft eligible quarterback. While not known for his mobility, Penix has shown good presence pocket and enough athleticism to extend plays when the situation calls for it. His 2.1% dismissal rate is comparable to that of Oregon’s Bo Nix, but significantly better than each of the other prospects commonly mentioned when discussing the first round. Penix does a good job directing his targets and giving them the opportunity to play one-on-one against a man.
The concerns stem from his injury history and the fact that he will turn 24 shortly after draft night. His 32 carries this season are a mechanism to protect him from being unnecessarily exposed to further injury. The southpaw is a complete thrower like Baker Mayfield, meaning his entire body works to make throws downfield and away from pressure; it’s not effortless power like that of North Carolina’s Drake Maye, for example.
As for the draft projection, Penix has firmly slotted himself into the first-round conversation alongside McCarthy and LSU’s Jayden Daniels, which translates to mid-to-late first-round consideration. USC’s Caleb Williams and Maye are likely to be considered next level by NFL teams.
For more coverage of the project, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the first choice” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!
JJ McCarthy, Michigan
McCarthy was a 247Sports 5-star composite prospect and a top-25 overall recruit from Illinois as part of the 2021 recruiting class. During his career, he compiled a 26-1 record as a starter, including 3-0 against Ohio State, with its only loss coming in last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal against TCU. If his team wins the national championship, he will have the third-highest winning percentage in college football history and the best since Chuck Ealey in 1971.
McCarthy threw for 221 yards and three touchdowns in the College Football Playoff semifinal against Alabama. It was only the second time in his career that he threw at least three touchdowns against a ranked opponent.
The quarterback has been a constant voice for a program mired in controversy this season. When head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended following the in-person scouting investigation, McCarthy took ownership of the offense. He has a natural release and good arm strength to push the ball downfield. His 73.2% completion percentage during the regular season ranked third in the nation behind Nix and UAB’s Jacob Zeno.
McCarthy has thrown for over 250 yards four times this season: two of those occasions were against Power 5 competition, and the average margin of victory in those four games was 33.0 points. In four games against opponents ranked in the top 25 at season’s end, McCarthy averaged 144 passing yards. The Big 10 offense uses a lot of movement before and after the snap, which gives the quarterback vital experience during this transition to the next level.
McCarthy throws with good touch but is inconsistent with his handling. There were times in the semi-final when he should have thrown it earlier. The pass to Roman Wilson which allowed the equalizing touchdown at the end of regulation time was not on target but in a position where the defensive back did not expect it.
There’s a lot to like about McCarthy’s game, and I’ve championed his potential all season long, but he hasn’t quite put it all together yet. He has the ability to become a top 10 selection in the NFL Draft in the future, but if he were to enter the draft now, then he would be part of that second tier of quarterbacks that includes Daniels, Penix and, maybe, Nix. Similar to Will Levis a year ago, if he is the last quarterback at this level, that could be a multi-million dollar difference in revenue. However, it takes a team to fall in love with a prospect, giving them a chance to advance to the mid or late first round.
Teams that could be looking for a quarterback in this range include Las Vegas, Minnesota, New Orleans, Denver, Seattle and Pittsburgh.
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place April 25-27 in Detroit. More coverage of the draft can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft ordinancemock drafts and one available regularly look at eligible prospects.