The 2024 NFL Draft is officially upon us and it’s undoubtedly the most crucial event of the entire offseason. Not only is this where the real contenders are formed, but we will also see trades involving players and teams being aggressive in acquiring their quarterbacks of the future. Then there’s the entertaining yet relentless rumor mill that continues to circulate. Remember, ’tis the season for discussions, if you will.
Teams release information to try to upset the selection committee, and agents release information about their clients to try to increase their inventory. These are all things that happen, but which rumors are real and which have no merit? That’s what we’re here to find out.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Rumor: six quarterbacks will be present in the first round
The 2024 NFL Draft could tie a draft record if six quarterbacks are selected in the first round. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels are supposed to be the first three names on the board, then JJ McCarthy looks like a first-round lock. But what about Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix?
Both signal-callers are “older” players, with Nix even being the most experienced quarterback in FBS history. Could both players be included in the top 32? Remember, if that’s the case, their new teams will hold the valuable fifth-year options on their rookie contracts.
Penix Jr. is an intriguing prospect who suffered four straight season-ending injuries before posting two massive campaigns with the Washington Huskies. He led the FBS in passing yards last season with 4,903, and also became the first player since Patrick Mahomes to record multiple seasons of over 4,500 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns. ESPN’s Matt Miller reported that the Las Vegas Raiders really like Penix, and could select it ranked 13th overall. In my opinion, five quarterbacks will be selected on Thursday night. Caesars Sportsbook even split the difference with its line on quarters taken in the first round, setting the Over/Under at 4.5, with the Over juice up to -260.
And Nix? Pro Football Talk reported that, “based on discussions with multiple sources with knowledge of how the first round is likely to play out,” Nix is the quarterback who could be knocked out of the first round. Still, it’s entirely possible that a team trades up late in the first round to grab the efficient Oregon Duck. Nix set the FBS record for single-season completion percentage last year (77.4%), while the Ducks went 11-1 and earned a Pac- 12.
My bet is that five quarterbacks are selected in the first round, with Nix going early on day two, much like Will Levis last year.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: JJ McCarthy is among the top three picks
No quarterback has seen his stock soar like Michigan’s McCarthy throughout the pre-draft process. On the one hand, he was the undefeated quarterback for the national champion Wolverines and ranked in the top 10 in completion rate (63%), yards per attempt (9.5) and passing efficiency (168.2) under last year’s pressure, as the article points out. The full article by Douglas Clawson on the 21-year-old. McCarthy is also underrated as an athlete, but are you going to take a player who wasn’t the focal point of his offense in the top three of the draft?
McCarthy’s 2,991 passing yards last year ranked 35th nationally and his 22 passing touchdowns were tied for 37th. I’m not using stats to argue that McCarthy won’t be a star at the next level, but he was a quarterback backed by a solid ground game and excellent defense that allowed just 9.5 points per game. On Thursday, he will likely become the first quarterback to be selected in the top 10 without recording a 3,000-yard passing season, or a 500-yard rushing season in college since Joey Harrington in 2002.
Does McCarthy have potential at the next level? Of course. And that’s why he’ll likely be selected in the top 10. Despite what some mock drafts say, I don’t see McCarthy cracking the top three. Another interesting tidbit to consider is that the money appears to be coming at McCarthy’s 5.5 draft position. Juice is now down to +120 so it goes to #6 or later. Can we even say he’s a lock for the top five?
Verdict: Sell
Jerod Mayo’s Patriots are looking for a new quarterback after the franchise dealt Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier this offseason, but the problem is New England will have to take the third quarterback behind the Bears’ picks of Chicago and the Commanders of Washington. What if the Patriots aren’t convinced by Maye or McCarthy?
Patriots director of scouting Eliot Wolf said they were “open for business” with the third pick, according to ESPN. However, they would need a Godfather offer to move down, especially since, once again, New England needs a quarterback. Drafting the reigning Heisman Trophy winner or Maye wouldn’t be a bad move.
The Athletic reports that the Patriots are indeed fielding calls from teams interested in moving up to 3rd overall, but I say the 4th-ranked Arizona Cardinals or 5th-ranked Los Angeles Chargers are probably the teams to watch in regarding the first exchange of the night.
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: the first defensive player will be selected historically late
According to the Associated Pressthe last defensive player ever drafted is No. 8 overall, which happened in 2021. Only one of our six CBS Sports NFL Draft experts currently has the first defensive player to go in the top seven, while that most have the Atlanta Falcons. the first defensive player at 8th overall.
Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner is the favorite to be selected No. 8 overall (+150), but he’s not a lock. Depending on what happens in the top seven with the quarterbacks and wide receivers, Atlanta could be a team that finds opportunity to trade. However, it looks like the story might fit.
The top three teams in the order need quarterbacks, the Cardinals will have a great opportunity to take the first receiver in the draft to bolster a room that lost Hollywood Brown, the Chargers at five could allow a team in need of a quarterback -to move up or maybe even select offensive tackle Joe Alt, the New York Giants at six are looking for a new receiver or quarterback, then the Tennessee Titans at seven need a new left tackle – or could take a wideout for Brian Callahan’s new look. an attractive autumn. I buy that we could see the first defensive player selected historically late.
Verdict: Buy
Rumor: Malik Nabers will be selected over Marvin Harrison Jr.
He has been reported that some teams, and certainly some analysts, have LSU’s Malik Nabers as their WR1 in this class over Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr.. Nabers caught 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns for the Tigers in 2023. His 1,569 receiving yards ranked second only to Washington’s Rome Odunze. In three seasons in Baton Rouge, Nabers recorded the most receptions (189) and receiving yards (3,003) in program history.
Nabers is CBS Sports’ third prospect in this class regardless of position. As for Harrison? He’s above him at number 2. Harrison is of course the son of Indianapolis Colts legend Marvin Harrison, and at Ohio State he recorded the most receiving yards (2,474) and touchdowns on receipt (28) in two years in program history. . No player has caught more touchdowns than Harrison over the last two years.
I don’t take sports betting lines as gospel when it comes to the NFL Draft, but they have never wavered in the belief that Harrison will be the first wideout drafted. In fact, he is now more favored than ever to beat Nabers (-1200).
Verdict: Sell
Rumor: Brandon Aiyuk will be traded in the draft
There has been a lot of noise surrounding Aiyuk this offseason. He expressed his desire for a lucrative long-term extension and even unfollowed the San Francisco 49ers on social media. However, his agent maintained that Aiyuk did not request a trade, and general manager John Lynch has consistently said they anticipate the star will be in San Francisco in the coming years. He even said they had “good discussions” by NFL Media.
“Our wish is that he will be here for the rest of his career,” Lynch said Monday. “We’re working on it.”
Reports indicate that teams have contacted the 49ers about Aiyuk, but it doesn’t appear the 49ers want to part with their former No. 25 overall pick. I don’t see Aiyuk being traded this week, but he’s not the only player with an uncertain future at could have an impact on the first round Thursday evening.
Verdict: Sell