SAN DIEGO — Here’s where things stand after a rocky start to the Winter Meetings.
• The elite shortstop market is heating up now that the Phillies skipped the competition in true Dave Dombrowski style to catch Trea Turner. The Cubs, Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, Twins, Angels and, per Judge Aaron’s ruling, the Giants and Yankees are still watching the shortstop market. But Turner’s contract does not change the monetary calculus. To reduce their potential tax bill, the Phillies added years to Turner’s offer to cut the average annual value to $27.3 million, well below Corey Seager ($32.5 million), Francisco Lindor ($34.1 million) and Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), who is a free agent again after pulling out of his deal with the Twins. And Turner preferred the East Coast, limiting the field. Correa could redefine the standard, especially if the Dodgers Where giants move to a shorter term deal / high AAV.
• Correa went from a 20 defensive point outfielder saved in 2021 to 3 in 22. Has he really gotten worse? Of course not. He changed teams, playing behind different pitching staffs. In ’21, Astros left-handers induced 403 ground balls. In 22, the Twins left-handers threw 194 hits on the ground, the fewest in baseball. No Framber Valdez in Minnesota. The only blow to Correa: his sprint speed over the past two years is down from what it was before, although JP Crawford, Seager and Brandon Crawford all rank below him among stop- regular shorts.
• As the market intensifies for the best players available (Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Turner, Edwin Díaz), Dansby Swanson, considered the fourth-best free agent shortstop, may be worth more after the arrival of Correa and Xander Bogaerts, simply as a matter of low supply. The case of Swanson: he reaches elite speed. Swanson has hit more homers on pitches at 97 mph or more in the past three seasons than any baseball player. And don’t overlook his winning pedigree. Dating back to 2014 at Vanderbilt, Swanson played on teams with a .572 (657-491) winning percentage.
• Turner is athletic enough to become a Robin Yount type outfielder towards the end of his contract. Correa and Bogaerts are less athletic, especially when it comes to speed, but have better batting skills. Correa hits the elite pitcher. Bogaerts had the third-best two-strike average last season (.258). Only Javier Báez swung and missed more break points out of the area than Turner, even though the gap was huge: 307-220, which shows you how terrible Baez’s season has been.
• On the heels of securing a reasonable contract for starter Tyler Anderson, the angels made another terrific signing by getting underrated reliever Carlos Estévez, who has a fastball that should play, especially now that he’s out of Colorado. Estévez throws 97.5 with a below-average height clearance point – a combo that’s mean when he elevates the ball. Batters hit .109 on his elevated four-seam, with just five hits on 288 pitches. The angels should encourage this more.
• From 2016 to 2020, 14 free agents signed contracts worth $100 million or more. Over the past two years, the tally is already at 14, with up to six more to come this winter.
• You must like this explanation of Rangers Executive Vice President and General Manager Chris Young on deGrom’s five-year grant: “We’re not saying we have all the answers. Nobody does. But sometimes you have to take a swing. And our fans deserve a winner. Give credit to the padres, Phillies and Rangers for stepping up in recent years. These three teams accounted for five of the seven best free agent contracts in history (Bryce Harper, Seager, Manny Machado, Turner and Alex Rodriguez). The Yankees account for the other two (Gerrit Cole, Rodriguez).
• Judge is a .301/.413/.616 career hitter at Yankee Stadium, with the highest slug and OPS of any active hitter at any stadium (minimum 300 career games). But don’t think his numbers will fall off the cliff if he chooses San Francisco. The judge hits the ball too hard to be much affected by the effects of the park. Statcast calculates that Judge would have hit 61 home runs this year if all of his home runs had been hit at Oracle Park, compared to 66 at Yankee Stadium. The most theoretical: 73 in Cincinnati and Colorado.
• Harper and Mookie Betts are signed until they are 38. deGrom is signed until age 39. Turner is signed until age 40. Verlander is signed until 41 years old. The judge will be signed until at least 40 years old. Money committed to older players is rising after years of which front offices have followed an aging curve, preferring younger players and not trusting anyone over 35. What’s behind this trend? 1. Luxury tax accounting tricks (more years, lower AAV). 2. The DH in both leagues. 3. Expectations that the old model of the aging curve no longer applies thanks to advances in training, conditioning, recovery and all things athletic performance.
More MLB coverage:
• Trea Turner and the Phillies are a perfect match
• Justin Verlander is an upgrade on Jacob deGrom for the Mets
• The Mets had no choice but to sign Justin Verlander
• Jacob deGrom deal opens MLB free agency tap
• Jacob deGrom worth the risk for Rangers