Iit looked like if it were to be simple. Voters last month gave the right its first clear parliamentary majority since 2008. And since the Brotherhood of Italy (FDI) won far more votes and seats than the other Conservative alliance parties, it was clear that its leader, Giorgia Meloni, would be prime minister. All they had to do was share the spoils of victory: the cabinet posts and the president’s posts.
Yet on October 20, when President Sergio Mattarella was due to begin consultations ahead of the formation of a new government, doubts loomed over the stability of the next administration and its willingness to join Italy’s traditional allies in standing up to Russia. The reason? The one that has tormented Italian politics for almost 30 years: the legal problems of Silvio Berlusconi. Mr Berlusconi, 86, once again on trial, this time for allegedly bribing witnesses, wants the justice portfolio for his party, Forza Italia. Ms. Meloni would prefer it to go to a retired prosecutor.
The first sign of trouble came when Forza Italia unsuccessfully tried to block Ms Meloni’s choice for Senate President Ignazio La Russa. From his seat in the upper house, a furious Mr Berlusconi dispatched the victorious candidate with an obscenity and was then photographed with what was apparently an unflattering pen portrait of Ms Meloni: “opinionated, overbearing, arrogant and offensive “, he had written. Ms Meloni replied irritably that he had forgotten another trait: “I can’t be blackmailed.”
A meeting between the two seemed to bring about a truce. They agreed that the right must present a united front to Mr Mattarella, and Mr Berlusconi then insisted that the faults he listed were not those of Ms Meloni. But the next day he claimed – although Mr La Russa denied it – that Ms Meloni had accepted his choice as justice minister. Then a recording of Mr Berlusconi was leaked which was deeply embarrassing for the Prime Minister-in-waiting. In one passage, he could be heard claiming that he had snatched an extra cabinet seat for Forza Italia; in another, that he had renewed his longtime friendship with Vladimir Putin. In a longer version of the recording leaked the next day, he appears to go further, blaming Ukraine for the war.
It is diplomatic poison for Mrs Meloni, who has tried to reassure America and NATO that his government would support Ukraine, notwithstanding Mr Berlusconi’s history of friendship with Mr Putin and the admiration for the Russian leader expressed in the past by his other main ally, Matteo Salvini of the Northern League.
Mr. Berlusconi’s misdeeds highlight the lengths he is willing to go to protect his interests. But that hides the weakness of his position. The reason Forza Italia failed to block Mr. La Russa is that at least 17 opposition senators voted for him in a secret ballot. Why, given that Mr. La Russa is among the least repentant of the former neo-fascists in Ms. Meloni’s party? A circulating theory was that a centrist group was signaling its desire to replace Forza Italia in a future coalition. The centrists denied it. And they would only represent nine of the 17 rogue votes anyway – even if that would be enough to guarantee the right a (albeit slim) majority in both chambers. Mr. Berlusconi skates his Russian dance on a thin layer of ice. ■