The NFL Draft is more than an event. It’s a year-long spectacle full of anticipation, predictions and analysis. It’s also complete bullshit, which is ironic considering the amount of resources invested in learning everything about each prospect. Given the degree of difficulty, I crunched the numbers to highlight draft strengths since 2000.
One way I measure draft performance is by using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV for short) metric, which assigns a unique value to each player’s NFL career. In this case, it indicates the best and worst writing teams.
This is the draft though, it’s pure entertainment and theater so rather than spouting the best and worst draft teams, I’m giving you the NFL Draft superlatives, yearbook style.
Best Drafting Team Overall: Packers
The Packers have been the best draft team since 2000, leading the NFL in AV generated among draft picks during that span. They were consistently among the most homegrown players in the NFL during former general manager Ted Thompson’s run from 2005 to 2017. And no matter who the general manager was (Thompson or Brian Gutekunst), they had the best QB succession plan in NFL history, drafting Aaron Rodgers in 2005 and Jordan Love in 2020, despite already having an all-time great QB. list. When Green Bay doesn’t select its next superstar QB, it lands a wide receiver in the second round. Here are the final six: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings. The Packers set NFL receiving records for first- or second-year players in 2023 and have plenty of ammunition in the form of five picks in the first three rounds if they want to give more weapons to Jordan Love.
Best for finding blue chips: the Cowboys
And those Cowboys! Team USA can’t get out of their way in the playoffs, but they have selected their top picks in the draft. They have drafted an NFL-high 15 Pro Bowlers in the first round since 2000, led by names like DeMarcus Ware, Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. There have been some close calls, however, like in 2014 when Jerry Jones was close to drafting Johnny Manziel instead of Zack Martin. Dallas has the 24th overall pick this year and could use another first-round shot after a lackluster offseason that saw them lose Tony Pollard, Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz, among others.
Best Bargain Buyers: Seahawks
The Seahawks have generated the second-most AV among draft picks outside of the first round since 2000, behind the Packers. They are the best since 2010 when John Schneider became their general manager, with picks like Bobby Wagner, Russell Wilson, Richard Sherman, Tyler Lockett, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright and DK Metcalf, to name a few . Their 2012 class, led by Wagner and Wilson, generated the most AV of any team class since 2000. Additionally, their stacked 2022 draft class proves that Schneider still has it, as they have got Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker III and Riq Woolen, among others. , after the first round. Seattle will need to make the most of its four picks after the first round in 2024 (81st, 102nd, 179th and 235th picks overall).
Best slogan: “F them picks” by the Rams
Rams general manager Les Snead wore a “F— them picks” shirt during the team’s Super Bowl LIV parade after the team fueled its Super Bowl run by trading picks for Matthew Stafford, Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller. The Rams haven’t selected a player in the first round since Jared Goff in 2016 but still have five 10-win seasons, three division titles and one championship since. Their streak of seven straight years without a first-round pick (longest since Washington from 1984-1990) should end as they have the 19th overall pick in 2024 and a huge hole to fill with the retirement of Aaron Donald. Screw the first round, I’ll be watching their fifth round selection after drafting Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams in the previous two years.
Most modified: Lions
Detroit has long been the laughing stock of the draft, and not just in the NFL! In 2003, the Pistons got Darko Milicic with the second pick, while LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade rounded out the top five. In 2006, the Tigers drafted Andrew Miller one pick ahead of Clayton Kershaw. Despite picks like Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford and Ndamukong Suh, the Lions’ claim to fame was drafting a WR in the top 10 in three straight drafts from 2003-2005 (Charles Rogers, Roy Williams and Mike Williams). It’s been a different story under general manager Brad Holmes, who began his 2021 tenure by taking Penei Sewell seventh overall, while later taking Amon-Ra St. Brown, the infamous 17th WR off the board. Holmes drafted Aidan Hutchinson second overall in 2022 and his 2023 class was one of the most productive in the NFL despite controversially taking a running back (Jahmyr Gibbs) and an inside linebacker (Jack Campbell) in the first round. Gibbs, Campbell and fellow rookies Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch helped Detroit win its first playoff game since 1991. The Lions have six picks in 2024, including the 29th overall pick. They notably added DT DJ Reader, DE Marcus Davenport and CB Carlton Davis this offseason, but could still use more defense to make the Super Bowl.
When it comes to recruiting and developing players, no team has been worse than the Raiders since the turn of the century. Their draft picks have produced the fewest AV of any team since 2000, with notable first-round flops like JaMarcus Russell, Fabian Washington and Darrius Heyward-Bey contributing to that statistic. In the mid-2000s, they had a choice just before Larry Fitzgerald, Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson left the board. What a gut punch! Much of the Raiders’ draft misery has fallen to the late Al Davis, who had a penchant for taking incredibly fast players 40 times, but that hasn’t been recent enough either. Las Vegas hasn’t drafted a Pro Bowler since 2019, tied for the longest active drought in the league. It’s hard to believe the Raiders haven’t drafted a QB in the first round since Russell in 2007, but they may need to be aggressive with this class of QBs given their current roster.
Most Unforgettable: Bill Belichick
We will all miss Bill Belichick’s impact on the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s always been good for something unforgettable between Tom Brady’s draft in 2000, the many surprising draft picks, and his dog stealing the show in 2020. The Patriots needed a new voice, though, especially in the draft. The Patriots have selected 25 RBs, WRs and TEs since 2011 and none have made the Pro Bowl. Their last to do so was Rob Gronkowski (2010 draft pick), making it the second-longest such drought in the NFL. Only the Jets are longer (Santana Moss 2001) in case you were wondering. The pressure is on new Patriots general manager Eliot Wolf to land a franchise QB with the third overall pick and then give him weapons to play with at the aforementioned positions.
The most predictable: the Saints
I realize that calling the Saints predictable in the draft might seem crazy considering Mike Ditka traded their entire draft pick for Ricky Williams in 1999, but they’ve been pretty tame ever since. You can expect them to get stronger in the trenches since they’ve taken an eight-round offensive or defensive lineman in the NFL in the first round since 2015. A QB would be a much sexier choice, but the Saints did not do so in the first round. round since 1971 (Archie Manning), the longest active drought in the NFL. Don’t expect New Orleans to move up as they only have two picks in the top 150 this year (14th and 45th).
Most Likely to Trade: Eagles
If anyone wants to make a trade that gets props from the rest of the league, it’s Howie Roseman. The Eagles have traded up in the first round in the last three drafts, returning DeVonta Smith, Jordan Davis and, most recently, Jalen Carter. Philadelphia only has two picks in the top 100 this year (22nd and 50th) but must find a replacement for Jason Kelce.
Most likely to be 30 for 30: 49ers
San Francisco almost locked itself into a surefire 30-for-30 shot had they beaten the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. They almost won a title with Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy after trading away three first-round picks to move on to Trey Lance in the previous draft. If that doesn’t sum up the project, I don’t know what will. The 49ers can reload for another trip to the Super Bowl with 10 picks in 2024, including seven in the fourth round or later.