IN THE REPUBLIC In its 59-year history, Singapore has had only three leaders. On May 15, it will be the fourth time that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, aged 72 and whose father, Lee Kuan Yew, ruled with an iron will for 31 years, will resign. During a ceremony at the presidential palace, Lawrence Wong, the current Minister of Finance, will take the oath of office. He is Mr. Lee’s junior by twenty years. Singapore now faces the prospect of a future without Lee at the helm.
The inauguration also marks the moment when the ruling party, the Popular Action Party (PORRIDGE), passes the baton of a “3g» (third generation) of senior party officials to the “4g» cohort who chose Mr. Wong as their man. Mr Wong will then call a general election, probably this year. THE PORRIDGE made sure to never lose one, and Mr. Wong certainly won’t lose his. He is guaranteed a majority that would make the leaders of many other countries cry. But never think that elections don’t matter to the PORRIDGE. The stakes are much higher than they seem.
Singaporeans no longer judge PORRIDGE simply on its traditional emphasis on economic growth and on maintaining Singapore, a small speck of multi-ethnic prosperity in a sea of turmoil, free from threats to its extraordinary success and social cohesion.
Indeed, many young Singaporeans, less respectful of hierarchy, want more fairness in the distribution of growth: they think that a country with such gargantuan financial reserves should support social assistance more generously. They also want policy to be more participatory rather than heavily driven from the top. The issue for Mr. Wong, when he goes to the countryside, is not his (and the 4g‘s) formal mandate but rather moral legitimacy.
The party likes to leave little to chance, and before change comes continuity. Mr Wong plays down expectations of major cabinet reshuffles before the election. After that, Mr Lee, like his father before him, will remain in office as Chief Minister (more commonly known as SM-the party loves initials). At least one key member of the old guard, K. Shanmugam, will remain in office. Since 2008, he has been Minister of Justice and also heads the Ministry of the Interior.
Mr Shanmugam takes a dim view of the threats weighing on Singapore. They range from extremism originating in Muslim-majority Malaysia and Indonesia; disinformation campaigns carried out by foreign states; great power rivalry and other trade-destroying forces to which Singapore’s open economy is particularly vulnerable. Vigilance is the watchword. THE PORRIDGE also likes to warn of the dangers of populist policies elsewhere; it presents itself as a safeguard against debauchery.
Yet Mr Wong has promised to break with the past. This week he described a “rapidly changing environment” that demanded new approaches and a willingness to “innovate”. Some believe his agenda will be thwarted by a lack of political capital. He was not the 4gThis is the first choice. Heng Swee Keat, currently Minister of Economy, was Mr Lee’s designated successor until he suddenly stepped down in 2021. Mr Wong, a highly capable former technocrat who entered politics in 2011, was the face public administration during the pandemic. However, it remains relatively unknown to Singaporeans.
In reality, being the compromise candidate may not be a bad thing. Number 4g The MP can hope to govern with the charismatic authority of previous leaders. Mr Wong’s leadership will likely be a more collective leadership, seeking consensus – perhaps even outside the party. Two years ago, Mr Wong led a consultative initiative, known as Forward Singapore, which sought citizens’ views on issues such as raising taxes on the rich and strengthening social welfare. The mild-mannered Mr Wong is closer to Singaporeans than to most of the ruling elite. This guitar-strumming nerd who confessed to growing up in an East Coast housing project didn’t go to any of the elite schools that PORRIDGE high-flying people often judge themselves. For many, this is a plus.
Mr. Wong therefore starts with a certain good will. Yet the elections will be his key test. THE PORRIDGE will win thanks to formidable organization, relentless attacks on the opposition, a compliant press, a record of good governance and a not always subliminal message that his and Singapore’s survival are synonymous. However, if the opposition obtains much more than the ten elected seats out of 87 it currently holds, the candidate of change will start off on the wrong foot.■
Read more from Banyan, our Asia columnist:
Some Australians are increasingly skeptical about AUKUS (April 11)
For a glimpse of Japan’s future, look at its convenience stores (April 4)
The Vietnamese head of state leaves under a cloud (March 27)
Also: How the Banyan Column got its name