Ageopolitics his is often described in terms of two giants: America, the incumbent superpower, and China, a rising power, straddling the region and vying to attract smaller countries, including the ten members of the Union. ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. But that’s missing a lot. This avoids the action of small countries and oversimplifies what is rarely a Manichean division. It also ignores the central role of another rich power with close ties: Japan.
For many Southeast Asian countries, Japan provides a vital hedge against rival powers, as a source of capital, technology and aid. Over the past decade, Japanese foreign direct investment in ASEAN countries totaled $198 billion, behind the United States’ $209 billion, but ahead of China’s $106 billion. Japanese companies covet Southeast Asia’s growing markets, and policymakers view the region as a bulwark against Chinese expansionism. Sustained engagement, from mediating regional conflicts to building regional institutions, has helped Japan accumulate substantial influence. According to a survey of Southeast Asian researchers, businesspeople and policymakers by the ISEAS-The Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, Japan is the region’s most trusted external partner.
That confidence will be on display in Tokyo from December 16-18, when Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio hosts the leaders of nine countries. ASEAN members and Timor Leste. This gathering will mark the 50th anniversary of dialogues between Japan and ASEAN, which began with controversial discussions about synthetic rubber. This will also be a time to recalibrate the relationship, as the power dynamic between Japan and ASEAN members change, competition for influence increases, and security fears intensify.
Warm ties between Japan and Southeast Asia were hardly inevitable. Imperial Japan brought death and destruction throughout the region. After the end of World War II, ill will persisted. In the early 1970s, anti-Japanese riots broke out in Bangkok and Jakarta. In 1977, Japanese Prime Minister Fukuda Takeo called for equal partnerships with Southeast Asia, based on “heart-to-heart” ties. The softer “Fukuda Doctrine” came to characterize Japan’s relations with the region. John Ciorciari of the University of Michigan and Kiyoteru Tsutsui of Stanford University call Japan a “gentlemanly power.” As Mr. Tsutsui says: “It’s not that Japan is nice: Japan had to do it because of the legacy of the war. »
Japanese diplomacy tends to be deferential, while that of the United States and China can be preachy or insistent. Japan remains relatively quiet on human rights violations and talks with autocrats, in the hope that they will transform. Sometimes this seemed to pay off, as when military rule ended in Myanmar in 2011; in other cases this is not the case, such as when the junta returned ten years later. The last three Japanese prime ministers have visited Southeast Asia within four months of taking office. America is “following in Japan’s footsteps” in Southeast Asia, says Emma Chanlett-Avery of the Asia Society Policy Institute, an American think tank.
Japanese private investment and state aid helped generate growth and goodwill. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Japan’s overseas development arm, has been providing training, expertise and funding for decades. The key to Japan’s confidence lies in “long-term consistency,” says Tanaka Akihiko, JICA’s president. The Asian Development Bank, based in Manila, of which Japan is the main shareholder, plays an important role in financing regional development. Japan is at the heart of the two largest regional trade agreements in recent years, the CPTPP And RCEP. (America is absent from both, with China a member of only the latter.) Japanese soft power, from anime to ramen, has helped create Japonophiles throughout Southeast Asia.
But Japan’s presence in Southeast Asia is most visible in infrastructure, from roads to sewage systems and power plants. Even at the height of the Belt and Road Initiative, Japanese infrastructure investment in many Southeast Asian countries exceeded that of China. Earlier this year, the Japanese emperor was warmly welcomed in Jakarta, where he visited a Japanese-backed railway. Nearly 30 meters below the congested streets of Manila, Japanese engineers are digging the Philippine capital’s first subway, a project financed largely by JICA.
Yet as Southeast Asia grows, the relationship is evolving. In 2000, the combined GDP of ten ASEAN members was equivalent to 30% of the Japanese population in real terms; last year, this figure was 72% (see graph). “We now cooperate on an equal footing,” says a Japanese diplomat. And Japan faces aid competition. South Korea has become an active donor. Thailand and Indonesia have their own humanitarian agencies.
China has overtaken Japan in terms of trade. In 2010, bilateral merchandise trade between China and ASEAN And ASEAN and Japan amounted to $236 and $219 billion, respectively. In 2022, China’s would reach $722 billion, while Japan’s would reach $269 billion. Japanese companies are too cautious, says one Indonesian businessman: “The Chinese care about return on capital and making profits as quickly as possible, so things don’t have to be perfect.” »
China’s rise has also pushed Japan to take a more proactive role in regional security. Under Abe Shinzo, Prime Minister from 2012 to 2020, Japan loosened the legal constraints that weighed on its armed forces and its defense industry. Since then, it has concluded defense equipment transfer agreements with the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Indonesia; Japan builds boats for the Philippine and Vietnam coast guards. Such aid is useful in responding to Chinese incursions, says Jay Batongbacal of the University of the Philippines. Japanese strategists also see capacity building in Southeast Asia as a way to counter China’s assertiveness across the Indo-Pacific. As a Japanese security official says: “Cinemas are connected.”
This connection suggests the direction that relations between Japan and Southeast Asia are heading. Security ties with states worried about Chinese expansionism will strengthen. In November, Mr. Kishida visited Manila and launched negotiations on a pact to facilitate closer defense collaboration; the Philippines will be part of the first group of a new Japanese aid program focused on safety kits, alongside Malaysia, Bangladesh and Fiji. At the end of November, the Vietnamese president visited Tokyo and elevated Japan to the first rank of Vietnam’s diplomatic partners; Vietnam will likely be in the second group to receive Japanese aid. Japan’s influence in Southeast Asia will always include roads, ramen and courtesy. But a more difficult situation is emerging. ■