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Sunday, April 28, 2024

Israel considers symbolic strike against Iran in phantom war – The Washington Post

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JERUSALEM — Israel’s war cabinet deliberated Monday on how to respond to Iran’s unprecedented air attack without angering international allies and wasting an opportunity to build a strategic international alliance against Tehran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asked the Israel Defense Forces to provide target options, according to an official familiar with the high-level discussions, who said Israel was studying options that would “send a message” but not cause casualties .

Those options include a potential strike on a facility in Tehran or a cyberattack, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the talks.

“Everyone agrees that Israel must respond,” the official said. “How to respond, when to respond, that is the question.”

The United States, the United Nations and Israel’s European and regional allies all called for restraint following Iran’s firing of more than 300 drones and missiles overnight Saturday.

The five-hour attack – which was a response to a deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria this month – caused limited damage after being repelled by an international alliance including the United States, France and Great Britain, with the help of Middle Eastern countries.

This presents Israel with a model for coordination against Iran, alongside what analysts describe as an unprecedented strategic opportunity for Israel to return to the international fold – and repair its regional alliances – after friction over its war against Iran. Hamas. But it is still an opportunity that Israel could miss if it miscalculates its response and puts a short-term show of force ahead of its long-term goals.

“This is an opportunity to create a new U.S.-led regional security alignment against Iran if we can take advantage of it,” said Chuck Freilich, former deputy head of Israel’s National Security Council and a senior fellow. at the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel. Tel Aviv. “Who would have thought we would be part of a coalition including the UK, France, Jordan and perhaps other Arab countries?

The success of Israeli air defenses and the allied response in repelling the attack, which caused only minor damage to Israel and one serious injury, means that Israel can act from a position of confidence rather than panic, a- he added.

European leaders reiterated their concerns on Monday morning about the possibility of a spiral in the regional security situation. “The right thing to do is not to escalate,” British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said in a BBC television interview. “We urge them, as friends, to think with their heads and hearts, to be smart and tough, and to recognize that Iran suffered this defeat because the attack was a failure. »

French President Emmanuel Macron expressed similar sentiments: “We are all worried about a possible escalation,” Macron told French radio.

U.S. officials also stressed to Israel that they would not participate in any Israeli response, fearing it could lead to a broader regional war. Israeli officials said they were aware of these concerns.

“Our allies do not want us to opt for an exaggerated response and we want to work with them, especially after the success we have had with them,” the Israeli official said. “We don’t need to cause casualties, but it’s important that we respond because it sends a message to anyone who wants to harm us. »

A strike will do little to help Israel in its fight against Tehran’s proxies in the region and concerns about its nuclear program, said Yair Golan, a former IDF deputy chief of staff.

“At different levels of intensity, Israel has been fighting Iran for years,” he said. “This will not stop tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. And it won’t stop if Israel reacts now. »

Israel should focus on its long-term goals by leveraging the energy behind a new emerging alliance against Iran, he said. “We can’t be confused here. Iran has intensified the war,” he explained. “But Israel must act intelligently to strengthen the regional and global front against them. »

The Hamas-led assault on October 7, which killed 1,200 people in communities around Gaza, shattered Israeli citizens’ sense of security. Among the Israeli public, the successful suppression of Saturday’s attack has restored some national confidence and eased feelings of international isolation.

“I think we avoided something terrible Saturday night,” Yosef Levy, a student shopping in Jerusalem, said Saturday. Around him, the store’s walls were covered with posters showing the faces of Israelis still detained in Gaza, some faded, others recently replaced. “It was like the world remembered that we were the ones being attacked for a minute. I hope it changes something, I hope it ends the war. But I don’t think anything can change until our hostages are back with their families.”

Israeli public opinion is polarized on how Israel should proceed in its war, with some prioritizing the return of the hostages through a deal with Hamas, and others prioritizing total victory.

“We are being pulled in several directions,” said Leigh Sapir, a 39-year-old lawyer from Tel Aviv, after dropping her child off at preschool on Monday, the first day schools were open since Saturday night’s attack. . “On the one hand, I encourage the government to respond and stand firm, and on the other hand, I think the focus should be on a hostage deal at this stage. »

But there has been little progress toward a deal, with Hamas over the weekend rejecting Israel’s latest offer of at least a temporary pause in its offensive in exchange for the release of the hostages.

It remains unclear to what extent the attack might affect operations in Gaza, if at all. The Israeli military called up two reserve brigades for “operational missions in the Gaza Strip” on Sunday evening, fueling speculation that the Rafah assault could be accelerated following the attack. Freilich said the force did not appear to have the “scale” needed for an operation in Rafah, adding that it was more likely intended to refresh troops along the Gaza dividing line than to be the start of a strengthening of forces.

Golan also said he did not see any Israeli intention to enter Rafah at the moment. However, the Iranian attack has already had an effect on the war, he added.

“Israel’s goals are to secure the freedom of the hostages, dismantle and find an alternative to Hamas’ rule in Gaza,” he said. “To make this a reality, there is incredible new coordination against Iran. We must take advantage of this, also in the context of Gaza.

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