Jhe is modern The Irish state was born 100 years ago this month, but only two political movements have led it. For foreigners, there is not much difference between them. Born out of the struggle for independence from Britain, Fianna Fail (Soldiers of Destiny) and Fine Gael (Tribe of Gaels) have evolved into right-wing, pragmatic and pro-European parties. Their mutual antipathy stems from a short but vicious civil war between factions of the Irish Republican Army a century ago.
Another, more cultural, distinction was identified by the late John Kelly, a pundit and former Fine Gael MP, who is said to have said of his own party – usually a little more posh, a little more self-righteous – that he could not not walk in front of a sleeping dog without feeling the need to kick it. Last month, after surveys suggested many young Irish tenants were considering emigrating in order to find affordable accommodation, the current Fine Gael leader said they could not expect to do better abroad . Leo Varadkar, who served as taoiseach (prime minister) from 2017 to 2020, and whose party has been in government for 11 years, noted that “considering emigration is not the same as actually doing it, and many are coming back “.
Mr Varadkar’s comments prompted derision on social media from Irish emigrants reporting more reasonable rents in Berlin, Amsterdam and Paris. (As The EconomistThe new cost of living index shows that many cities are cheaper than Dublin.) A few days later, the Irish Residential Tenancies Board reported that new rents for the second quarter of this year had risen by 8.2% compared to the previous year. “I sometimes think that he [Varadkar] takes on its own tangents,” said Gary Murphy of Dublin City University. “Fine Gael realizes the scale of the housing problem and its toxicity, but they don’t seem able to help themselves.”
None of this will prevent Mr Varadkar from becoming Prime Minister for the second time on December 17. As part of a ‘rotating taoiseach’ deal struck after an election in 2020, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin had to be PM for the first half of the current legislature. Now it is Mr Varadkar’s turn again, although voters would prefer Mr Martin to stay.
Until the beginning of this century, the two parties could hope to govern alone, or with one or two small coalition partners. Now their combined support has fallen to just 40% in a recent poll in the Irish Independent, and they are locked in a cold and probably doomed marriage of convenience. With 34% in this poll, the party likely to end up with the most seats after the next election is Sinn Fein (Ourselves), formerly the political wing of the Provisional will go, a later and bloodier version of the Irish Republican Army. His most cherished policy – a united Ireland – is not in his gift. But Sinn Fein have found fertile ground to the left of their rivals on health, welfare and housing. Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald says her party will control rents – a policy that has tended to make housing more scarce wherever it has been tried, but is popular nonetheless. She also promises to build a lot more social housing. Desperate young voters are ready to believe her. ■