Jhe more The likely hotspots in Asia are widely thought to be the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula. This week, however, attention has turned to the Himalayas and the largely disputed 3,440 km (2,150 mile) border between the world’s most populous powers. News of a high-altitude brawl on December 9 fell from the mountains.
Border disputes date back to the early 20th century, when Britain delineated spheres of influence between British India and Tibet (not at the time under Chinese rule). At the western end of the border, India claims Aksai Chin, an area under Chinese control in the Xinjiang region. In the eastern sector, China claims the whole of the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh as a historic part of Tibet: a former Dalai Lama was born in his Tawang monastery. Sixty years ago, India and China fought a nasty war over the disputed line. It ended with India being humiliated by the People’s Liberation Army (flat).
In the decades that followed, clashes often took place. But thanks to protocols agreed between the two countries – including a ban on the use of firearms when patrols clash – most have been tokenism. Until recently, both sides tacitly recognized each other’s patrol routes along the disputed Line of Actual Control (lake). When rival patrols met, warning banners were raised and harsh words were exchanged, but nothing worse.
That changed in 2020 when Ladakh’s remote Galwan Valley in the western sector saw a horrific melee that left 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers dead. These are the first fatalities along the border since 1975. The latest incident occurred in the eastern sector near Tawang and resulted in no fatalities; yet it appears to have been similar to that of Galwan. Several hundred flat soldiers—several times larger than the usual size of patrols—would have charged from the Indian side of an “agreed disputed area”, in border parlance. They carried tasers and spiked clubs and waved “monkey fists”, steel balls on lengths of rope. Well-prepared Indian troops pushed them back, India claims, but with casualties on both sides. China says Indians ‘illegally’ crossed river lake and sought to block a Chinese patrol. It was the first confrontation in the eastern sector for years.
Although the details of such incidents are still disputed and neither side’s accounts are reliable, the Galwan fracas appeared to represent a direct Chinese challenge to the status quo. This happened after China built new roads along the border and reinforced it with troops and equipment. It is now doing much the same in the eastern sector and India, as always, is scrambling to keep up. “The unpredictability” along the border, writes Sushant Singh of the Center for Policy Research in Delhi, “has become structural”.
To manage the tensions it has done so much to increase, China may well offer to establish buffer zones in the east, just as the two sides have done in the west. Since such areas often mean that India is excluded from areas it had previously patrolled, they amount to an Indian retreat. Narendra Modi, the Indian Prime Minister, would be extremely reluctant to submit to this. India’s political opposition feels it is vulnerable on the issue.
Mr Modi once invited President Xi Jinping to his home country to celebrate the Indian prime minister’s birthday. Such friendliness is long gone. China says the border dispute should be isolated from wider relations between the two countries. But India sees a peaceful border as a prerequisite for normal relations, says Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington. Since Galwan, India has blocked many Chinese investments and banned Chinese apps. Official visits are reduced. The two leaders had only a brief exchange in three years, at the G20 summit in Bali.
It’s hard to see how this advances China’s interests overall. Indian policy makers used to be sullenly opposed to India being seen as part of an anti-China bloc. Now, Ms. Madan argues, China has “lost” India. While once hostile to trade deals that could hurt Indian businesses, farmers or workers, India is seeking or making deals with Australia, the EU and others. Deeply sensitive to the Chinese threat, it also cooperates much more in defense matters with America and its friends. Last month, the Indian and American armed forces even organized a two-week exercise in Uttarakhand, a state bordering China. India is still not in the Western camp. But the more he faces Himalayan problems, the more he leans towards him.■
Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:
Which version of Anwar Ibrahim will rule Malaysia? (December 8)
Narendra Modi is set to fulfill a fundamental promise made to Hindus (December 1)
Australia steps out of the Chinese niche (24 November)