Have you noticed that none of the best running backs in fantasy football live up to their draft position? While things played out differently in the leagues, overall the top five consensus picks in the leagues were Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffery, Dalvin Cook, Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry, in some order. Yet three weeks into the season, none are in the top five for points scored in standard leagues. McCaffery is the only one in the top 10, and he is 10th.
I know I definitely noticed because in the league where I had a first pick, I took Austin Ekeler with the third pick. Taylor and CMC were no longer on the board, and I chose Ekeler because I had never had him before. OK, I took it too because as much as I love Dalvin Cook, he’s still running out of time with injury, and Derrick Henry seems to be slowing down. So, of course, Ekeler was the most disappointing of the five.
He is the third best RB of my entire team in this league! No wonder I’m 0-3. Hopefully Ekeler and all of RB’s other top picks get their act together this weekend. If they don’t, it will be a long year for those of us who are “lucky” to write them.
Take this money.
All Eastern times and odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The hot ticket
Dolphins at the Bengals, 8:15 p.m. | Television: Amazon Prime
Latest odds:
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
- Key trend: Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
- The pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
I think the world is getting ahead with the Miami Dolphins. They’re one of only two 3-0 teams in the NFL, along with the Philadelphia Eagles, but I don’t think they’re as good as the results indicate. That doesn’t mean they are bad. They are not. They look like a playoff team and are certainly much better than last year. But they are not a juggernaut.
The Dolphins came back from a 35-14 fourth quarter deficit against the Ravens to win 42-38. It was certainly cool and exciting, but also somewhat random. Last week, the Dolphins were beaten by a 497-212 shorthanded Buffalo team and went just 39 plays on offense to Buffalo’s 90. They ran for just 41 yards in the game, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. They won the game, but it’s usually not a performance you can count on if you’re trying to win games.
Jonathan Coachman is joined by Allan Bell, Allie O’Neill and Jake Fetner to share Thursday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Now they’re on the road for a short week to take on a back-to-the-wall Bengals team. Cincinnati is 1-2, and even though we’re early in the season, it’s hard for anyone to recover from a 1-3 start to reach the playoffs. In this game, I think the Bengals offense can exploit a Miami defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in field goal percentage (49.3%) and 19th in points allowed per drive (1.96).
Opponents moved the ball well in the air against this Miami defense, which isn’t great when you’re up against Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. The Dolphins will suffer their first loss of the season tonight, and the Bengals will cover in stride.
Here’s what SportsLine has to say about the game: SportsLine’s Larry Hartstein is 21-10-1 in his last 32 picks involving the Miami Dolphins, and he posted his sideline game for tonight’s game.
💰Choices
🏈 College Football
Utah State at No. 19 BYU, 8 p.m. | Television: ESPN
The pick: Utah State under 17.5 points (-120) — It is a tricky game that is difficult to understand. BYU is by far the better team, but the Cougars are dealing with injuries and have a massive game against Notre Dame ahead of them next week. So I fear the Cougars will rest some players late in this game when they should be in control.
So I choose to rely on Utah State to continue to be Utah State, and that’s not great for Utah State. The Aggies have been terrible on offense this season. They rank 127th in points per possession (0.96), 108th in completion rate (36.7%), 127th in EPA per play (-0.26) and have scored on just 14.5% of their possessions (130th). The Aggies don’t finish drives. They’ve scored touchdowns on just 45.5% of their drives in the red zone, which ranks them 114th nationally, and they have just as much trouble scoring from outside the red zone as they have one least explosive offenses in the nation (their 7.8% explosive play rate ranks 126th). By any measure, it’s a terrible offense, so let’s bet it continues.
Key trend: Utah State’s 0.96 points per possession ranks 127th out of 131 teams.
⚾MLB
Rays at the Guardians, 6:10 p.m. | Television: MLB.TV
Latest odds:
Cleveland Guardians +110
The Pick: Guardians (+105) — I understand the thought process behind that line tonight, as Cleveland wrapped up AL Central and didn’t have much to play for, while Tampa didn’t lock down a Wild Card spot (although it would take a epic collapse to miss it). I also understand that the starting pitcher’s game leans towards Tampa with Jeffrey Springs on the mound against Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill.
But I don’t like betting against this Cleveland team. Not at home, and certainly not in the underdog role. Cal Quantrill doesn’t have Spring’s strikeout rate, but he doesn’t walk with batters and gets ball contact on the ground. He’s also backed by one of the league’s best defenses and top relievers. In other words, Cleveland is precisely the kind of team you want to bet on as a dog.
Key trend: The Guardians are 7-3 in their last 10 home games.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Want more Thursday night action? Jason La Canfora shares all of his favorite pieces for tonight’s game, including some accessories.