Fourteen years ago, I told a knowledgeable friend that Barack Obama was considering choosing Joe Biden as his running mate in the 2008 election. “You must be kidding,” came the retort. “Biden is way beyond that.”
Similar obituaries were written just two weeks ago as Biden’s poll numbers fell below even Donald Trump’s nadir. Yet here we are. America’s oldest president can now boast a stronger legislative record in less than two years than Obama or Bill Clinton achieved in eight years. Turns out, low expectations are Biden’s secret weapon.
None of this means Biden will be elected to a second term. But it’s worth pointing out what he did in less than half a year. In the coming days, Biden will sign off on America’s first serious attempt to fight global warming. Its predecessors tried it and failed. Clinton fell short of persuading the Senate to ratify the Kyoto climate change treaty in 1999. Obama’s 2009 cap-and-trade bill also foundered. Trump, of course, abandoned the executive actions that Obama resorted to after failing on Capitol Hill. Trump also withdrew the United States from the Paris climate change agreement.
Biden has not only reversed Trump’s actions, but is the first president to signal that the United States is serious about global warming. Unlike Obama and Clinton, who both had large Senate majorities, Biden did it with a 50/50 Senate. Perhaps the absence of this cushion is good for party discipline.
This week he will also sign the “Chips plus” law, which is the first American stab at industrial policy since Ronald Reagan’s response to the rise of Japan in the 1980s. The bill invests tens of billions dollars in public scientific research – the kind of money that, in the 1950s, finally made it to the Internet. Biden’s climate and tax bill also gives the federal government the power to negotiate lower drug prices for the first time. Again, the Democrats have been losing to the pharmaceutical lobby for decades. Biden broke that roadblock without much fanfare. Attention has been drawn to the bill’s clean energy bonanza.
Each of these policy breakthroughs should be big news in its own right. Taken together, they amount to a silent reboot of America’s political capacity. This radical change is likely to be overlooked for three reasons. The first is that almost everyone, especially Washington’s wizened political caste, is deeply acclimated to impasse. It takes some time to digest the magnitude of what has happened over the past two weeks.
The second is that this wave of legislation could be Biden’s last real bite at the apple. If, as polls are still predicting, Democrats lose control of Congress in November, Republican leaders will ensure nothing more is enacted for the remainder of Biden’s term. Third, the United States is in the midst of a deepening constitutional crisis. It is difficult to recognize that a system is working when it is simultaneously so easy to imagine its collapse.
All of this means that Biden’s place in history is not assured. It’s still possible — some would say likely — that Biden will lose in 2024, or that he won’t run and the Democratic candidate who replaces him will lose. It would not be a routine American transfer of power. Whether the winning Republican was Trump or a Trumpian figure like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis or former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, their platform would include a repudiation of Biden’s 2020 victory.
They would also pledge to reverse Biden’s climate and tax bill. In other words, Biden’s recent legislative victories might seem like a flash in the pan before the ensuing avalanche. American democracy remains viable, but it is by no means secure.
Does Biden, who turns 80 in November, have the ability to belie these grim expectations? The answer ultimately depends on what the American people think. A striking feature of Biden’s streak of legislative victories is that all of them are long-term plays. None will have much impact on how good voters will feel in the months ahead. Inflation will always be a scourge. Rising crime is always likely to be a concern. The cost of funding Ukraine’s fight against Russia will continue to rise with little political benefit for Biden.
Unlike Obama and Clinton, Biden lacks the poetry to weave a narrative for the American people. But maybe poetry is overrated. As Biden searches for the right words, events write their own narrative. The FBI just raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. His prosecution for sedition or lesser offenses cannot be excluded. “Sleepy Joe” Biden may be almost outdated. But he has a knack for surviving his enemies.