Who knew if the Chicago Bears should take a quarterback first overall or a trooper with Justin Fields would become permanent content?
A year after trading the No. 1 selection in the 2023 NFL Draft and the eventual rights to Bryce Young, the Bears are in the exact same position following that trade as the Panthers’ pick they acquired will be No. 1 in the general ranking.
Here are Chicago’s options with this No. 1 overall selection:
Should the Bears trade Justin Fields and draft a quarterback?
Why would Chicago keep Justin Fields?
His play this season has inspired a little more confidence in his abilities moving forward. However, was this enough to tip the scales in his favor? The NFC North franchise could keep its young quarterback and try to continue the momentum established in recent weeks. In this scenario, they could either select the best non-quarterback first overall or trade their pick for the second year in a row. The defense, in particular, has shown great promise in the second half of the season since acquiring Montez Sweat. If the offense can catch up, the Bears should be able to advance quickly in a relatively open NFC. Chicago has won five of its last eight games.
So, again, why would Chicago trade Justin Fields?
First, he was not drafted by either general manager Ryan Poles or head coach Matt Eberflus. They have no connection to the quarterback outside of the last year they spent together. Fields, nearing the end of his third season, was drafted 11th overall. He is over 60% of his rookie deal assuming the fifth-year option would be used.
The Ohio State product broke out in his first two seasons in the NFL, but was extremely inconsistent. Fields missed about a month of this season due to injury, valuable time as both sides learn whether or not the union can be successful long-term. If his viability as a long-term starter isn’t clear and obvious, wouldn’t the franchise be better off hiring another rookie quarterback with five cost-controlled years? Fields’ improved play in the second half of the season should generate more interest in his services on the trade market, which would likely be reflected in Chicago’s potential trade return.
The fear every Bears fan has about trading Fields is that he will go elsewhere and succeed while their new quarterback isn’t able to deliver as hoped. It’s a bet.
What’s not known is what Chicago’s leadership thinks about Fields and potential future quarterbacks. For this reason, it is impossible to completely rule out the possibility that they evolve in another direction. If there was clear improvement at the available position, the Bears would likely go that route.
Who might be interested in Fields and how much would it cost?
In this scenario, Chicago took a quarterback No. 1 overall. One of the top two quarterback prospects (USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye) is off the board, leaving needy teams like Washington, New England, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, Minnesota and potentially Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Seattle. jostling for the remaining available players. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and Fields are part of this next group of high-potential quarterbacks.
Any of the aforementioned teams that don’t draft one of these two rookie quarterbacks could be interested in Fields.
How much would it cost a team to acquire the Bears quarterback?
There isn’t a long history of a prospect as naturally talented as Fields being traded three years into a rookie contract. A handful of veterans like Carson Wentz, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith were traded for a first-round pick and a second-day pick well into their careers. Chicago is unlikely to receive a pick in the top half of the first round, so it’s more likely they get a late first-round pick or potentially a few second-day picks.
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What if the Bears traded the No. 1 overall selection?
Until last year, the No. 1 overall pick hadn’t been traded since the Rams moved up from No. 15 overall in 2016 to select quarterback Jared Goff. The first overall selection had been traded one other time since 2000 – when Atlanta moved up from second overall to select Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick in 2001.
There is a some recent examples of teams trading for a quarterbackbut none are “apples to apples” examples.
- In 2016, Philadelphia moved up from No. 8 to No. 2 overall for the right to select North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz. The Browns received third and fourth round picks, as well as first and second round selections the following year.
- In 2017, Chicago moved from No. 3 to No. 2 overall. In exchange, San Francisco received a third-round pick, a fourth-round pick and a third-round pick in 2018. The Bears used that pick to take Mitchell Trubisky from North Carolina.
- In the Goff trade, Los Angeles gave up two first-round selections, including the No. 15 overall selection in 2016, two second-round picks and two third-round picks. Tennessee also received fourth and sixth round picks.
- In 2021, Miami received three first-round picks overall, including the No. 12 overall selection, as well as a third-round pick, from San Francisco in exchange for the No. 3 overall selection.
- In 2023, Chicago received two first-round picks, including the No. 9 overall selection, and two second-round picks, as well as star wide receiver DJ Moore in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick.
Basic economics teaches the principle of supply and demand. When supply is low and demand is high, costs are also very high. There are about 10 teams playing a game of musical chairs with four or five chairs.
RJ White of SportsLine.com constructed an updated trade value chart a few years ago and placed 1,000 points on the No. 1 overall selection. The No. 2 overall selection is worth 695.80 points, so it should be easy to see the value in having the first pick.
Since 2010, there have been 12 trades on the draft board in search of a quarterback. In each of the 13 trades, the team trading the rights to the quarterback received compensation greater than the match for the pick. On average, the team trading the higher pick received a +243.92 point differential, which is equivalent to the No. 19 overall selection. In four of the 13 trades, the team that selected a quarterback returned a top-five pick in the following draft.
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place April 25-27 in Detroit. More coverage of the draft can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft ordinancemock drafts and one available regularly look at eligible prospects.